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Cinders .. no.. you are wrong here (IMO DYOR) ... US aggression all but stopped when basketball-man took the white house. For the past 15 years it has been fairly clear that the US is not anywhere near as aggressive as it once was and looks to both Russia & China as an 'ally ' that will be reluctant to engage. This, above any other regional reason, is a key factor in them stepping up their incursions and belligerent rhetoric.
Biden is a dithering geriatric and Trump an isolationist. Both Russia & China probably feel the USA will do naff all for at least the next 5 years
Seems to spend a lot of time looking at various stocks and posting about his thoughts .. looks like he is developing a fanbase (I guess some form of subscription like BBN did is in the future) ... has written some interesting stuff on BMN over the past few months
https://substack.com/@theoakbloke
Well @HS ... now the vote (last week) is done, all that remains is the Reserve bank approval and final shareholder vote for the Orion Package - surely a formality. At this point all parties have agreed everything and agreed no pull out - just subject to the approvals.
The de-risking is done and whilst not risk free, very few companies can say they have Capex and debt repayments in the bag for 2 years !
As CC said, $40 would give around $50m in EBITDA (and that is before the uplifts from BEE transfer and efficiency savings .... Whilst not ra-ra, the really big risk is all but passed and basically CC has saved the company from bankruptcy
2/2
It is not inconceivable to see a vanadium spike to $60/$70+ (although I feel less likely as not in anyone's real interests and the US project Blue ought to smooth it out, but at $60 in 18 months the company would get making a $100m+ ebitda with debts close to half the Orion completion. I hope Vanadium rises to the $40-$50 range - a spot that works for all parties but how long that takes is anyone's guess.
Yes, lots of 'ifs', but unless the wider market wants to destroy vanadium supply (and Largo must be considering a halt to production (and they supply 7% of RoW Vanadium), it seems hard to see this not being the absolute bottom and if next year a profit can be made (and it can) with pricing this depressed, why does anyone feel we are Doomed !
FM and the BoD left the company on the cliff edge facing oblivion. The days of thinking about him as some great sage are over. CC has rather shown what a lightweight we was. The Vision of VI is over, indeed, it never seemed that convincing to me given that a miner would want to supply all and sundry and seemed largely based on the belief the SA government would essentially back a Belco/BE rollout. Anything in SA will be private led and not state led as it totally clear.
It is not fantasy to think of ebitda in the $70-80m range in a couple of years. A div (and I don't expect divs for 3 or 4 years) of 1p would use half of that and at a 3%yield would represent a 33p SP. Yes, not that probably (the div), but not really just dependent on Vanadium pricing hitting $40-$45.
I am very optimistic for 2024 and beyond.
Happy new year all
1/2
doomed .. we're all doomed .... no one is getting their money back and the debts are dragging in more dilution.
well ... if you want to believe that then fine ... but a glance over the numbers (and indeed the nomads figures (who have access to inner workings and data) rather tells a different story.
yes .. vanadium pricing has to increase (and a fair bit for substantial profit), but is at all time lows (in real terms) and is at an unsustainable low. after all, producers will go out of business and where then will the vanadium come from .. it is in no-ones interests. indeed, the post by ls rather points to an artificial floor being proposed/built in the usa.
my back of the *** packet numbers running over 5 years point to a low end target price of between 10.1 and 15.1 and high end target of 21.7 to 32.5 with low end running a margin starting at $5 and rising to $12 in y4 and high end $9 and rising to $20. (yes i could refine based on the updated hannan figures but it would not make a substantive change), and yes, i left off the new royalty rates, but they are relatively small and a target is a broad brush anyway. i am really only interested in the bigger picture. (and by 'target' i am thinking 2 years)
note that post jan (orion signing) the first debt repayment is covered and all capex requirements, so the ai price will not be in the $35+ range (as many seem to think), but rather close to the declared cost price (a little higher as some admin costs etc will not be included), but broadly lower than the current market price .. so even if small a positive cash flow. ... my low end target would only need a vanadium average of about $33 rising to around $39/$40 in y4 .....
there are plenty of unknowns but also plenty of knowns:
1. capex funding will be in place for 2+ years
2. debt repayment for q1, 2025 is in place (next on is over 2 years away)
3. barren dam works should finish phase 1 by q1 2025 and be ready to have material uplift into h1 2025 (and most production is from mid q2 onwards anyway)
4. cost base will continue to fall as surplus staff are removed and costly intermittent pm is outsourced
5. the accretive effect of buying out bee will uplift vametco ebitda by almost 6% (effectively decreasing the cost base further)
6. post first debt repayment the gearing will be around 50% (which is when cc said he felt comfortable), and decrease markedly a year later
Time is on the website .. big popup .. 10am today
https://www.bushveldminerals.com/
I filter the chump, but given your post had to go have a look .. goaty McGoatbreath ... I am roaring with delight that any muppet dumb enough to have been taken in on FAR is taking a kicking .... and as for taking offence .. you can ruddy talk ...
Lord knows, we were all taken in on here and not out of the woods yet (although shortly we should be) ... do have a terrible Christmas in your goat-shed .... dreaming of the day your tough old hide will one day make a nice riding whip....
Largo must be having the discussion around suspending operations .. cant loose $15-$20m a quarter when you have $30m ish in cash on a mine with a 6-7 year life left.
As for FAR ... the rainbow has turned into a sh&t-storm !! Oh dear .. How sad !