Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Yup ... lots of factors... and the west's general economic malaise is not helping.... no sign yet of an economic boom again. Needs a lot of infrastructure growth to drive it
Or a few big flow battery orders needing electrolyte .... cannot see Belco being anything but shut down at the current rate
Good .... what would it take ....
Arguably the range of Costs are around $26.5-28
A BMN attributable production out of 5,000mtv of 75% of that (half of Vanchem will ultimately be SPR's) gives circa 3,750mtv
An av sale range of $40-$45 gives a margin range of $45m-$70m
A PE range of 6-10 (historically low in mining) gives a target price range of 8.0p - 20.5p (less when you take any other/royalty costs off)
As Craig said in a previous IM, at $40+ the company literally prints money
So yes... so long as there is enough cashflow to keep going until Vanadium pricing rises substantially again ... every change of 14p and more
A friend just pointed me to this .. interesting read up... like you @Fincent, I sort of question where the dividend was. But it seems still quite early (perhaps a year or two away yet on first glance). But their website rather makes the strategy clear:
https://tridentroyalties.com/about/strategy
"Trident believes that the acquisition and aggregation of individual royalties and streams has the potential to deliver strong returns for shareholders as assets are acquired on terms reflective of single asset risk compared with the lower risk profile of a diversified, larger scale portfolio, including diversity as to geography (lowering geopolitical risks) and commodity exposure.
Once scale has been achieved, the Company expects strong cash generation to support an attractive dividend policy, providing investors with a desirable mix of inflation protection (through exposure to commodities), capital growth and income, with returns enhanced through conservative levels of leverage."
In line with what was discussed at the IM a week or two back .... looks like a solid positioning to finance any new sites that come onto market. As the economy stutters there may well be more distressed disposals .... all good
Craig has bought (not much) and committed to a buy of 4 months salary 'when allowed' ... I agree and there are plenty of company's where directors buy all the time ....
It was a flag I wish I had paid a bit more attention too !
Blues ? .. who ?
Its a coiled spring @Somtam ... still !
https://capital10x.com/the-vanadium-market-is-coiled-like-a-spring/
I too will be raising a glass @GND
As for sentiment, can't see any T/O - that could have happened several times in the past and did not. There is an expectation of another Vanadium Spike (eventually). Just consider that if it went for a sustained period to $50+ (not inconceivable and well within the sweet spots for steel and other industries), with Barren dam and other improvements BMN makes 5,000 mtv+ and that would be an EBITDA of circa $100m.... at a low PE of 5, that is $500m.. that is an SP target circa 20p
Craig made clear this was a tough year, but that with the funding in place (an it is bar the small Acacia $3.5m, then the costs were met, Capex in place and the company would survive to make the improvements. A lot I guess will hang on the Q1 (not so much results), but business statement and forward view in April
Plenty of doom sayers, but actually, the corner has been turned. No one puts millions in to see it lost or swallowed up in a receivership process
@Krustysmegma
Impressed .... solid and clear presentation, liked the reassurance that essentially 80%+ of the revenue is baked in and index linked and the remaining 20% a little less so, but solid margins and risk strategies. Liked the link to revenue and not fixed fee. Interesting take on the growth of 'lower cost' competitors around saturation and ease of expansion. Liked the two director buys, good debt position and good drawdown potential for opportunities with a baked in cost rate that is modest and manageable (any investment likely to be accretive from day 1).
I scanned last years report but will read in detail. So far, don't see a downside. A bit unloved but a solid and growing yield so will have on my buy radar as I free things up to re-invest. Just a bit surprised given all this that the rating is only BBB+, but that is still perfectly acceptable to me.