focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Oh yes it is ..... but have whatever view you want.. won't change facts that pretty much its likely all lost .. the games with SPR (who are now the biggest shareholder despite ponying up a relatively small sum) and having a vote when formally the payment is still just a w/c loan just stinks
Very brave ....
Just down to Vametco, the company can make a decent profit. Given CC's clear capability in reducing costs and lets remember the Vanchem cost reductions were in no small part down to Vametco staff going in (is that sustainable).
But survival, in any mode, requires Vanadium prices to rise and rise significantly ... can bleat about past management failures, chasing rainbows and debt, but that would not ultimately change the fact that current sales are below production pricing. That is not sustainable and would be the same for any other setup.
This absolutely terrible deal just rolls the dice and keeps the lights on a bit longer to see if vanadium pricing changes in time
I thought he was pretty straight talking .. a couple of my questions not taken, but basically without a substantial capital injection (my guess is £15-£20m) then getting to the point they are expecting Vanadium pricing to start decent rises ( this time next year) will be pretty much a non starter.
Since June last year vanadium pricing has dropped by over 30% (from a modest level as well)
In the end, his point was that both SPR and to a much larger extent Orion have put a lot of money in and would stand to loose a fair chunk of it. They all agree Vanadium pricing is historically low and see the cycle reversing ... do they want or have the cash to make the substantial returns happen
Survival must mean substantial dilution. They struggled with a fund raise at 3p. Not sure how successful one would be at 0.65p ... basically a 50% dilution to get £15m ... right now I would vote for that.
Frankly though, I am not that hopeful.... buggering about for fund raises is a distraction. If Orion et al cannot see the monumental change done at Vanchem and see what is coming at Vametco then we are stuffed.
Dead and bust in 2 months or has funding to survive and thrive are the two options I see..... and SPR will loose a lot. They do not have Mokopane or 50% of Vanchem and their loans to date are unsecured .... would they survive ?
As for Belco .. hand washed .. that place will close soon I think. the IDC won't really want to fund much more.
A good IM, but really just says .. if someone does not pony up a lot of working capital very shortly, then will the last one close the door on the way out
Largo also haemorrhaging cash and have been for months.. on a time limited mine. How much longer before that halt for a bit .. and if BMN is gone and Largo suspends ops, that is a lot of USA supply gone .... China would love that !
Well the interesting thing was it was a 6 day wait for the IM .. might have expected it thur or even friday ..... But the cold reality is that the company needs to secure working capital pretty much equivalent to its current mcap to survive into next year at current vanadium prices.
In January, Lemur was all but sold (just needed BoD approval he said)... there is the value of the Cellcube holding .. neither will be massive, but a decent level of W/C... and the cost measure seem to be working well,
Everyone seems to agree Vanadium pricing will rise .. just can we limp on until then ... its a pure punt right now
ATM went off over 6 years ago ,... it has yet to make any real money and has had both investment and a whole load more coming.
Like many, I was pretty disappointed at the dilution we got in shares, but FM and mini-me were dreaming of energy rainbows and positioning as an integrated energy provider. remember that Belco plans were changed and scaled to meet the expected BESS requirements that were largely going to be paid out of free World Bank money. They cosied up to Cyril but totally underestimated how weak he was.
CC was an is right to focus on mining first ... but lets not delude ourselves there could have been the resources to keep and expand ATM. There were not and given that ATM (tin price spike aside) is a year+ from really making any money and that would be over 7 years.
Mining is hard !
From Ryan .... should have a positive effect in time on US steel making
Biden to announce new duties on steel and aluminum from China
ON APRIL 17, 2024 BY ALANPATRICKRYAN
President Biden is expected to announce today that he will triple some tariffs on certain imports of steel and aluminum from China. The product tariffs, which are now 7.5%, would increase to 25%; these items were not initially included in the Trump 25% duty. He also wants to work with Mexico to block Chinese steel from coming through Mexico. Other Chinese products will also be subject to higher duties.
Biden’s announcements will be made at a USW convention; the union is pressuring the Administration to take action. The effect of the new duties, however, could result in higher prices—and inflation. However, Chinese imports are an easy target.