Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Or they may be trying to stop the deal as they may know there's more in Hur. Even if they don't stop the deal they'll probably make money. Just all seems too ballsy for an iffey company like hur. Unless they know something
Yeah understand that, but a near shaky double in 3 years doesn't seem worth it for an outfit like cignoge. They'll still be underwater if this deal goes through early doors then they need to wait like the rest of us to see if they go into the black. Seems iffey to me
Might be cignoge again. Seem to be buying atm, can't quite get my head around why. Had a look yesterday to see if they had any links with Hur. Thought they may be old bondholders but could'nt see any connection with that or CA or Kerogen
Yes, that was my thoughts exactly. It read as if CA have just been worn down and just want out, take what they can get and mover on.
Disappointing reasoning if that's the case, we all want out but not on these terms
Nicely done. If there's a 'mistake' in the presentation I would consider sending it through to the FCA. It may be an honest mistake or something there to mislead. But there should'nt be any mistakes for a presentation for this.
"Fang I’ll be honest if it falls much more I’ll be buying a shed load lol simple maths"
Be careful, I thought like that 3-4 years ago when the price was drifting down and it's hurting me badly now. No way would I trust getting the 2nd tranche of money out of this lot, they've probably already got a plan to stitch everyone up.
Only the front end money is guaranteed, moohasive act of faith to expect anymore AIMHO
Nice one Oldman, that's been one of the things that has been bugging me. Why Kerogen get a mention?
Busy trying to get my head around why Cignogne are buying at these levels. Can't quite make myself believe it's for a 'double' from 6-7p to 12.5p. Might sit around break even pretty quickly but quite a wait for the 'profit'.
" I'm not sure if senseman has left yet,"
FWIW, just checked back and senseman's last post was at 2:20 this morning, no mention of bailing out that I could see (would'nt blame him or anyone else if they did either). Seemed to remember he was up watching the cricket so may be lying in today ;-)
Can someone explain to me how Kerogen got in the RNS?
CA I can understand being privy to the deal before the RNS due to their Board member but Kerogen don't have anyone on the board, were all ii consulted prior to the RNS or just Kerogen?
"On the face of it 12.5p is reasonable offer. However not structured in this way where shareholders remain saddled with future risk (in return for smaller share of the profit). Would you sell the company now for 6p/share in return for 17.5% of future profits ?"
That's a NO! from me.
Nice summary Haggis, thanks
Looking out there M&G have an estimated 8.9% dividend say 9%. So, in theory the HUR SP could ramp up to 34p and the divi hunters could still get their 9%.
Can't see a spike like that happening as people will suss on sometime, on the rise, that there's not much in HUR atm to support that 34p. But, I could see (if a 3.1p divi is announced) a spike into the low teens say 13-14p driven by the divi hunters. 13p is 23% divi with a rush to get out after ex div day, with not too much downside risk, if you don't get out.
Just musing 'out loud' on the chances of being able to off load some of my HUR shares to raise cash atm
Jac - Just so you know, you're not the only one needing funds atm, I do. But alas the only thing I can guarantee is that the HUR BOD will not be thinking of you or I and our needs at the moment. Unfortunately it's not in their DNA.
If the capital return is going to be as a dividend, at the current SP a 3.1p divi per share will be around 43% of the SP.
I’m no dividend expert that this seems rather good. Am I right in thinking, if it’s declared, the SP will rise as investors jump aboard until ex div day?
So at what price will the SP rise to? Where I’m coming from is if 43% is a good dividend, as the SP rises this percentage reduces.
So when will people stop buying because the percentage is just ‘average’ and nothing special and they can get similar elseware.
I guess my real question is what’s the best percentage dividend out there at the moment?
Ultimately I'm just wondering if it could get to a point where selling some shares beats keeping them for the dividend
"If peeps want to misinterpret facts, for whatever reason, they are entitled to. "
Even when it misinformation? Sorry, I don't think so even on a forum. They always need to be corrected. Which Sense did several times in this case.
I'm not condoning how he did it, that's his style but you can only tell so many people so many times before exasperation kicks in, especially in these fractious times. We're 5 months into the FSP, I for one was hoping for some sort of financial clarity on this before the end of this Tax year, unfortunately I don't think I'm going to get it so will stay frustrated a while longer, together with most LTH's I'd guess.
The one thing I do know, I'd prefer to have Sense's frank and open style, than not
Because they could agree to the company being sold for 8p and still make a profit and not much anyone else could do, unless everyone else clubbed together which is unlikely as some others would be happy with 8p
Not really but I think someone else worked it out to be 6-7p. Happy to be corrected
For me I think the lethargy in the SP movement is purely down to mistrust of the BOD.
They tried once before to give the the company away, to the shareholders loss, only to be thwarted by a savvy Judge. Who's to say they won't try again?
The only difference this time is SH will get a vote on it but even then, ultimately, CA will probably get the casting vote, so it'll be whatever they are happy to settle for. If, the FSP goes ahead.
Mmmmm sorry I can’t agree with you there Daltry.
FWIW I had 30+ years in various offshore company Safety departments, where after we’d produced a safety report on any given subject the client invariably wanted a 2nd opinion and most certainly, if ‘our’ report went against the grain. The one thing you could bank on when you went to an outside party was that they would never wholly agree with your findings. A bit like turkey’s voting for Christmas. Slightly different here I know as it’s the client itself wanting the 2nd opinion but think my thinking still stands, nobody likes a ‘yes’ man and these companies need some credibility to survive.
My guess (hope!) on HUR was that Trice gave the 1st CPR company (sorry can’t be bothered to remind myself who it was) all the info for an optimistic positive outcome and a statement of how much HUR thought was there. 1st CPR company went “we can’t agree with this much being there” and downgraded the quantities. Then we had the water saga which saw the end of Trice and the new incumbents saw their opportunity on the back of the water saga with a 2nd CPR, with another company, giving them pessimistic negative info to downgrade even further. The ‘truth’ hopefully being somewhere in the middle of the two CPRs.
Numbers can be ‘manipulated’ to tell whatever story you want, you just need to know which spin you want before you use them ;-).
Anyway, that's my dream. I think if the FSP does conclude with a sale then we should get some idea who was nearer to 'the truth' of how much is down there.
Following that idea, it doesn't have to be Viaro, anyone of the 'old' BOD and before ie Trice could be 'advising' any Oil Co.
This 'Theory', of more down there, will always be about due to the vast difference between the CPR'S. This probably won't be dispelled until the FSP is done (or not), as various independent eyes will have now been into the data room and made their own mind up on how much is down there and valued their bids to suit.
Bluntly, if they come in with 50p-60p bids then CPR1 is nearer the truth and if they come in with a 12p - 15p bids then CPR2 is nearer the truth. IMVHO
A couple of snippets here, one seeing a Russian minister laughed at and two stating they are not relying on any western partners
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-64848508