Member Info for fairdealer20

Amirkat, 130p is probably wishful thinking. By the end of September the trues extent of the damage done to the balance sheet will almost be known. If you think not only have pubs got to make up the month's of lost income, even when re-opened for indoor drinking, social distancing will still be in force for a period of time. My guess is the SP will hover around it current level.

Barchid, yes it was a Racing certainty that Andrew would step into RF's shoes. Never sure keeping the old guard in place produces the dynamism shareholders want to see. Hope in this case I am wrong and a new and hopefully external appointment to CFO will bring fresh thinking to the company.

The RNS states:

Dividend Process

"i3 has NEARLY completed the necessary preparatory work and creditor approvals process for a Court-led balance sheet restructuring which is required to create distributable reserves in order to pay a maiden dividend"

It was known weeks ago the maiden dividend could not be payed until the stated protocols were in place.

Patience is required.

Some may remember the emergence of Carbon Fibre many years ago when after initial teething problems, Rolls developed arevolutionary engineering systems. There were doomsayers then as there are now.
Most New engineering Innovations come with risk as do investing in shares.
Anyone not prepared for the risk should not invest in shares.

Progess being made here is nothing short of phenominal.
Could the FTSE Co be Rolls?

...."from February RNS, not Jan"

from Jan RNS. Could the Loan Note Holders being obstructive?

Dividend Timing1

It is expected that the Company will declare its maiden dividend in Q1 2021 - subject to loan note holder, judicial, and shareholder approval - for payment in early Q2. As previously disclosed, the Company aims to distribute up to 30% of free cash flow as a dividend to shareholders.

Accounts show Directors received 13.6% remuneration increase last year, and a 24% increase over the past 2 years.
Accounts also show Bonus awards of which £19K is unaccounted.
Company now has 4 Directors and 3 Staff

Trent,

The Spread Eagle ( Marstons) is at the junction of the A449 and A5. Get off M6 at jnct 13 and down A449. I stay there when in the Wolverhampton area.. Not many miles north of Stourbridge and straight down the 449.

Here are some numbers to exercise the mind.

Whitbreads revenue decreased by almost £1.5billion creating a loss of £1billion.. Whitbread made a fund raise last summer amounting to £1billion. The Fund raise is virtually elimated by the loss.

Marston's revenue for yr 20 was £821m of which brewing revenue was £305m. Brewery profit amounted to £17.3m . Consolidated company results amounted to a £22m Loss.

Now Brewery contribution is reduced expect some nasty losses come End of current year.
It is difficult to see debt reduction achieved without some dramatic infusion of funds, either asset sales or possibly a Fund raise.

AIMO

longtime.......the projected sales you quote are massively overstated.
Combined pre-covid beers sales were stated as £800m, (Marstons £389m, Carlsberg UK £414m). It would be amazing if given economies of scale, cost savings are not achieved, indeed having made losses these passed 2 years ( even bigger this current year), Marston's 40% share must produce a good result to offset the ongoing and consequential losses due to Covid. Unless there are further asset disposals these losses will be carried forward for some time. Marstons have limited ability to dispose of some, if any of it's retained estate due to the JV agreement ( required to retain at least 50% of it's Pubs). The hospitality/accomodation sector is enduring some dramatic sales data, Premier Inns have announced this morning a 70+% drop in revenues. These numbers will be reflected across the sector.
Against this background Marstons are left with the one valuable asset it is able to sell. Carlsberg have track-record, just look at the Tetley agreement, which was a 50/50 agreement. Be under No illusion Carlsberg is almost certain to acquire 100% of the combined brewery company within 5 years.

"wolf from door"

Londoner.agree with your initial synopsis and add RF's expansionist ventures have increased organic debt to levels where maintaining has led to virtual flash sales starting with the sale to Admiral at a huge discount, and latterly the Brewery sale

Some beleive the link with Carlsberg is beneficial. The benefit being short-term in so much as the traunche of funds received was required to keep the Wold from the door. Ultimately as some of us have predicted the 40% of the brewery will go within 5 years. Carlsberg have history, as Tetley's bear testiment.
I am not convinced the foray into Wales is going to provide the riches some expect. Brain's an Old established Brewer and Pub Owner could not make it work.

Regret RF's legacy is presenting his successor with some formidable issues.

Londoner in your opinion why has Marstons so badly underperformed??

Daave, further thought/question.

Many publican/Tenants will have purchased a lease and have equity within the Public House. Is here any indication how those Lessee's are to be compensated?

Daave, thanks

As Barchid states this is indeed odd behavour. 2 things come to mind. As I recall we have not seen the fine detailof the Brain's deal, but will be highly surprised if that Management agreement allows Marstons to treat the "Welsh Estate" in the way explained.
2nd and hope All Publicans/Tenants have examined the terms of their individual Leases as there could/should be Rolloever clauses. No doubt Marstons Legal beavers will have pawed all over the agreements to exploit every possible loop-hole.
With a "Business hat" on can see the financial rewards that Marston's are considering, however at this time when many Pubs are struggling to survive. Even before Covid , many provincial and city Pubs were closing in increasing numbers. Most Tenant Publicans have and are the heart of their Community. Many have sacrificed their own savings to come through this pandemic and have supported Locals during the Lockdown. Managers imo do not have the same dedication to a Community as Tenants.
Marstons could be treading down a road that could open up a can of worms. For instance, and it could already be underway, Mars have lost control of the Brewery, it would not be surprising that Carlsberg as conductor, will orchestrate product price increases which Marston's Pubs will have to stomach.
It would be interesting to hear from any Marston's Brewery workers now transferred to CMBC?

Well at least India are now on the Red List, Why it takes almost 4 days baffles me when at Christmas Boris introduced a lockdown here in under 8 hours.

Trent New Zealand.

You best repeat these nonsense statement to the 100's of Publicans who have not opended and worse those who have and had booked tables this last weekend, with provisions and staff engaged and then Customer's did not keep their Booking.

If you believe the Gov have done a good job and by inference you approve flights from India etc should continue?. Hardly good practice when Scientists are warning of the inherent dangers.

Cash burn is a concern when as the BOD state little happened last year apart from Licence awards for which most work was conducted in previous year. Interesting to read the defence of the 2 unsolicited bids did cost. Would be good to read the full accounts, which for some reason have not yet appeared on the company's Website.

Most of us are keeping to the rules, but wonder why the Hell flights from India are continuing without control. Some say how can we control our borders, easy. NZ have a process where , even returning Nationals MUST go into quarantine Hotels. There are limited spaces which must be booked in advance. At the moment anyone wishing to travel to NZ are looking at a 12-14 week wait for available QT accomodation. Why can't a similar process be in place here? There are very many vacant Hotel bed-spaces in London.
It seems to be beyond the wit of Politicians to see how best to give us back the freedom we so much miss.