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Hi Trent, have just arrived home and will study the reply ( which was swift) and presentation video RF refers.

My initial reaction is why are Analysts informed before Shareholders??

Will study and comment later.

Well done for your efforts.

Hi Trent, yes, keep it brief.

When can Shareholders expect to Management Agreement promised for the 5th February?

Intial agreement stated we were to manage 156 pubs within Brain's estate, yet today the analyst's presentation states 107 plus 30 under par Pubs, where are the remaining 19 pubs?

precis it to suit Trent if you wish.

Thanks Trent, would be grateful if you would write. I seem to make too many bullets!!!

Cheers

Call me a pessimist, I prefer realist. I do not agree with expectations voiced, for the following.
There will be a stampede once pubs etc open up. Let's assume it will be May, the sector have lost 2 of the most valuable income periods with Christmas/New Year and Easter. This leaves the hoped for lucrative summer which given good weather could be a bonanza, don't forget some huge sporting events, Olympics, Euro Cup etc etc. Some of these events, Olympics are likely to be stay at home for most and will aid off-sales but not Pub sales. Looking at the accounting year, ends 30 September, a hell of a lot of lost income has got to made in 5 months. There won't be any profit for the current year.

Looking at the role of the CEO, the clear intention to not engage with Platinum by the hasty completion of the arrangement with Brains demonstrates a closed mind. Remembering Platinum were not enamered by the Brain's event, they had until the end of February to make a final offer...we will never know how much more would have been on the table above 105p.

It is symptomatic of the mind-set, that whilst negotiations were taking place with Brains in early December, 2 offers were put forward by Platinum which PI's were not informed until end January. Now ( today) we are told about an Analsyts presentation today focused on the future with the Welsh estate., and shareholders are still waiting the Management Agreement promised on the Brain's Completion day ( 5th February).

Shareholders are in the dark on the substance of this agreement.
The original understanding stated there are 156 pubs in the Brains estate which Marstons would manage.
The Presentation to Analysts states 107 pubs plus 30 below par where a peppercorn rent will be due for 18 months.
Rent on the Brain Estate is due in Advance.
Where are the missing 19 pubs?
Are Marston's enhancing the 30 below par pubs in return for Nil rent?

The problem, as I see it, until the Management Agreement is published, what exactly is Marstons letting it self in for? The plain fact is Ordinary Shareholders do not know.

It may seem pessimistic, but questions need answers, any LTH should be concerned at the disdainful way in which information is obscure or being witheld.

AIMO
DYOR

barchid, I totally agree. You only need to read the text of the last waiver and it seemed to me they (BNP) are a much tougher bunch of Bankers. Hope RF is not relying on the Covid sympathy card!!

YoYoMa, will not repeat my views on the Brain's venture. It should be a concern when the initial understanding was agreed on 23rd December, we were informed Full details of the Management Agreement would be issued at the same time the Agreement was Completed. As most may remember Completion was hastily done on 5th February. the RNS was released after close of markets on a Friday. We are still waiting for details of the Brain's Management Agreement.
This is poor form to say the least.

Joe suggest you read the previous waiver applications, this is the 3rd in 12 months. On the last occasion HSBC agreed a waiver on the basis loan payments were reveiwed in April 2021 when business activity may have returned to some form of normality. The conditions of that waiver includes the transfer of the Bonds to BNP Parabas when interest rates will be amended on agreement at the end of this year. If agreement on rates are not agreed there is a formal mechanism to remedy any impasse that may exist. The agreement with BNP Parabas will not allow further waivers. Not at this point but after transfer to BNP which is later this year.

When an institution starts building, it sends signals which demonstrate a stock with high potential, which must influence even the smaller PI's.
We are seeing the result in the SP today. Rest my case

As seen the SP is not breaking through 105p, we may be surprised, as will the market, by the details Sunak announces tomorrow. The leaking of Budget specifics, is highly unusual and could be a smoke screen. No doubt Sunak will have some surprises. Other hospitality chains have good NAV, even MAB. Compare MARS and it does not give the comfort found with those in the Peer grp.
Investments in this market is risky, those making money are basically Day-traders. Patience and nerve is required for longer term benefits.

Going from Zero holding to over 5%, Miton's investment must supercharge the SP

Putting all your eggs in one basket is never a good policy. Fullers, Shepherd and Neame are up, MAB are down but that is as much to do with intergration of the RI. Any Alcohol Duty reduction is extremely doubtful. The £5B pot expected appears to be going towards creating "Community Pubs" which may help MARS with some disposals, although not sure RF wants the Estate to reduce further against the back ground of the Welsh Mission. There may be some short-term spikes which will enable those who have some exposure, to get out with profit.
Longer term, much depends on the re-opening and how debt is going to be managed. Like other Pub/Hospitality chains we have enjoyed a VAT holiday, MAB have got to find £30m, we have no information what the liabilty is here. There will be No profit for the current year and looking further ahead Bond-holder caviats will not allow dividends for at least 2 years even if profits allow.. It will be good but surprising if we see the SP approaching 130p anytime soon, it is more of a mirage as things stand. Let's hope RF does not rue the day he refused to engage with Platinum.

Barchid,

With a slightly different hat on, in another business I have come to blows with the masquerade known as equivalence. The EU conned the UK, just hope other states who are in open rebellion, are begiinning to see the light, that the Commission is not serving the peoples of Europe.
Back to the topic, Sunak has some horrendous economic man-traps to avoid, a share transaction tax has been mooted for some years and may be gaining traction given the prevailing headwinds ( £2+trillion) debt). Clearly warnings of the BOE and the double forces of the EU and New York endeavouring to gain financial dominance at London's expense is a very real concern. IMO the blue water will emerge due to the fractures appearing in EU unity.

It is unlikely alcohol duty will be reduced when Sunak is promising £5 billion in aid , spread over the hospitality sector and retail. We cannot expect to get support both ways.

AIMO

Having seen 1st hand what tends to happen is the first few thousand hectolitres will be at a nominal Tax rate and then a taper comes into play. This is done in order to protect small craft brewers whose overheads are proportionately higher than the big breweries. Not sure I can share your almost total confidence.
Sunak will have to address the massive deficit at some stage, not necessarily next week although, and there have been rumblings, some less painful to the general public, the imposition of a share transaction tax. The Chancellor already has a captive market with the 100's thousands of new investors who have arrived in the last 12 months. Just think about the revenue that can be made from the "casino users"!!

Always strong lobbying to get Alcohol tax reduced. There are unique circumstances, however Sunak does not have a bottomless pit. The suspicion Corporation Tax will be hiked will hurt every Company

Good morning YoYoMa, yep been stuck here a while. At long last patience seems to be paying off.

TSX closed at 30cents = to 15p. Given the well debated disparity between markets we should be way above 8p

Disappointing posters are resorting to bar-room bluster.
There is always the filter button.

draft are you his mouthpiece?

What a difference a day makes!! Keep the faith.

GLA

Thanks YoYoMa, I always try to be objective which does not suit all, but then my investment strategy is always LT. You have done well here, good for you.
My veiws on the Welsh venture are well known. I hope RF proves me wrong. Your realistic opinions and perception will be missed, but hopefully as you say you will pop in occasionaly.

All the best for the Future and Post Covid.