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Exploration.

Interesting and very informative post, thanks.
One wonders if Delt have the where with all to run a forward thinking business?

Since 1st Lockdown these boards have been infested with novice traders who would be more successful if they did better homework. The older and wiser Traders act a little more subtly, they still suck the apprentice investors in though with their crafty dialogue.
Reminds me of a guy on another board some time ago, he was convinced he was on a multi bagger and was proud to announce having invested all the Holiday money. The company was Carillion and the guy did not know how to tell his wife as in his words , she would kill him. Have 'nt seen him on these boards since!
Us Sassenachs know nothing??

DOPW,

Do'nt you mean consolidation? Using your suggestion for every 100 shares would be converted into 10!. It is hard to see that achieving what you want, better the share buy back the company are committed to do.

Classic GS, short on detail. Would have been good to read Shell have contracted an available rig and not " a rig is available".

Any T/o approach could only be for the Pub/Motel business, the Brewery, a significant asset is No longer controlled by Marstons.
An offer from Platinum was rejected in January without reference to Shareholders. It is reasonable to assume a Big Ego was involved. Suspect many holders would have accepted the earlier offer.
Food and Drink company's used to be a safe haven in times of Economic stress, Covid has disrupted that investment criteria.
NAV to be published in the accounts in a few weeks will be a figure many will analyse.

IMO, the fly in the ointment is the Sale by Brains.. It is highly likely negotiations are underway. As Leaseholder, Marstons have a significant interest. If a deal is agreed, Marstons need to structure funding of the potential purchase of Brain's Freehold Estate. Funding could involve a Rights Issue.

With all this going on, it is hard to see a predator on the horizon.

LTH's need to dig into the waivers agreed by Note holders almost a year ago. A condition was agreed, Dividends will not be payed for a period of time. Depending on performance the conditions of the approved waivers will be reviewed after 1st January 2022. If favourable dividends could be restored if the current year 21/22 provides adequate headroom, early in 2023.
Whilst the company are determined to reduce debt, restoration of Dividends is in the lap of the Gods.

We all (LTH) want dividends restored after all that was a reason why I and suspect many others invested in Marstons a few years ago.

Barchid

Had expected to see some analysis from the expert investors!
The trading update is like the Curates Egg, good in places. Good to see the company have forward contracted energy prices.

The numbers being stated that compare with yr 2019 need examination. Like for like sales for Yr just ended is 102% of 2019. On the face of it this seems good however the year just ended includes a contribution from a managed/leased estate that increased by 10%. The number of Pubs managed /leased from Brains is incorrect. The original undertaking was 156 properties, however on completion Marstons decided 40 of those pubs were sub standard and or of poor condition and did not want. The statement fails to make this clear but rather gives the impression 156 pubs were taken over .
I did make the point on completion of the Brains deal,in February, did the decrease in Pub numbers, result in the final consideration being reduced, to reflect the change. It has never been made clear.

In view of Marstons Lease agreement with Brains is it appropriate to have mentioned the Welsh estate is on the market?
Maybe negotiations are going on behind the scenes, which then raises the question how would a purchase be funded?

The SP has marked time since the statement as most commentators and Instituional investors will wait for the hard figures due next month.
Expect the SP to hover within the current channel until those final accounts are published.

You know this company so well, how many Pubs do Marstons own? What is the total Net Debt? Who is the CEO?

The answers will show who the Barrow-boy is.
Another 1 line Merchant all wind and no substance..

Sadanby, Please tell us the facts that are wrong?
Please tell us Brains are not selling THEIR Pubs?.
Please tell us you are a Long Term Holder who has owned shares for at least 2 years?
Please tell us the Trading report will be so magnificent the SP will Rocket?
Please tell us you have removed your Rose Tinted Specs.

" Marston to put 90 Brains Pubs up for sale."

KCE32, as the master of 1/2 liners surprised you have not been able to provide your vision of events now and in the future.

Of course as the Saturday post above shows you believe Marstons own property of which Brains have the Freehold Title.
You live in South Wales and don't know the Local News accurately, it is understandable you do not know where BARKING is located.
Hope the headache improves soon.

KCE, with respect lets have your take on the current situation?

You are right in one way, however apart from Whitbread every hospitality co have suffered and seems there is not much confidence for the immediate future.

In so far as Marstons, no doubt inevstors/institutions are pawing over the sale of Brains Pubs with Marstons as a tenant.
Remembering Mars entered into a 25 year leasing agreement in February, there is bound to be Legals to be sorted for S A Brain to sell to a 3rd party. There could even be clauses within the lease agreement that gives Marstons 1st refusal..So far as I know the full text of the Lease agreement has not been published, it is entirely possible, as Brains pride themselves on supplying Welsh Beer, there is conditions that Mars must take a % of Brains Brands brewed at their Red Dragon Brewery.

It would be strange if talks have not already taken place between Marstons and Brains, and the possibilty NO agreement has been reached hence Brains putting their pubs on the market. This move could be designed, by Brains, who are in dire straights, to hold Marstons to ransom. That's business when your back is against the wall.

Apart from a Rights Issue, not sure Mars would be wise to increase the debt pile, unless there are compelling numbers to support adding value to shareholders.

It is a conundrum which may be solved in a couple of days..

The way the SP is performing, a leak may have occured.

The 239m last year was used almost entirely to pay down debt and running cost during the Lockdown. The residual 34m is linked to a basket of sector share prices, which may mean less or more. The Trading statment on Thursday should give the answer.

Exon you are correct. Brains are selling the Freehold of 95 pubs let on 25 year leases to Marstons.

Is an investing institution going to buy for the income? and Marstons as tenant or would it be a good buy for Marstons???

Exon, where have you seen the potential sale by S A Brain? They have been trying to sell Red Dragon Brewery for some time. The brewery is not that OLd was opened by Prince William.
The sale of pubs is interesting as the management agreement with Marstons was only completed earlier this year and Marstons payed rental up front. Probably under pressure from Brains ( they have been in trouble for a while), RF and Rhys ( Brain's chairman ) were friends.
Any sale to a third party could come with some serious Legal issues. Should Marstons have first refusal, it is difficult to see it working even at a knock-down price, unless Marstons issued a Rights, the existing debt pile is/has proved hard to manage.

It could be an interesting opportunity???

Have you been drinking???

Marstons do not own the Brain's Pubs. S A Brain retain the Freeholds and Marstons have Lease agreements.

Do you live in Barking?

Ron, Tony agree, it is a load of gobbly goop. Where has he come from.

Agreed with GGG's view weeks ago if only because the way existing PI's were treated ( undue haste to allow applications). View has not changed as others appear to realise debt could have been managed to the benefit of Loyal Holders.

Have seen much about the need for speed of funding provision and that the company could not wait weeks. Do not agree with that statement as proved by the rapid fund raise, which given the intense interest could have been structured on a Loan basis, convertible or otherwise. The point being there was significant external funding available, not withstanding the reasons recently given , the BOD decided on a Placing Route, which did Pre-existing Shareholders No favours.

nimshy6

For the reasons previously stated, forget a T/O from RF's quarter, it will be blocked by the Monopolies Commission.

Exploration

thanks that brings clarity to the debate.