New OB article - exciting times ahead2 Nov 2025 14:49
Conclusion
My FY25 estimate of net profit is £138m vs a market cap of £288.3m.
So a P/E of 2.08 but let’s not fall out over a 0.08 discrepancy. It pays a 2.67p dividend which is a 4.5% yield today. But that’s only 12.75% of net profit and 20% of operating cash flow…. in other words there’s more in the tank, potentially, to reward shareholders. The other 80% of cash is being poured into expansion and growth across three jurisdictions and into extensions at Segilola.
The 1H25 ACTUAL net profit was £65m. An extra £8m profit in 2H25 vs 1H25, given the rise in gold prices is highly conservative and assumes a modest 22.5 Koz and no reduction of WIP……I calculate there’s £90m of WIP (at $4k Gold)!
I can’t say a long term £138m annual net profit is nailed on beyond 2027. But there’s a reasonable chance that it is, or at least £100m once a higher AISC, tax and other factors are included. So perhaps the future P/E FY28+ moves to 3.8X - just for Segilola.
But if a tax deal is done, if my assumption of a much higher AISC isn’t reality, but also if volumes rise beyond 90 Koz per year, or indeed if THX becomes polymetallic mining Lithium in Nigeria, or multi-jurisdictional if Senegal is progressed to and beyond FID then profits would or could be much higher.
Even at 3.8X it’s cheap. At 2.1X it’s very cheap. And at below 2X it’s getting silly.
So is 59.5p the top? No. Am I calling time? No way!
THX hit a recent 76p high (at $4,400 gold). That’s a £484m market cap. Even then with £138m net profit that’s a 3.5X P/E.