Member Info for extrader

Hi da95649,

.."He is basically saying that AZ is a fraud.."

Good luck with that ! I'm on record as saying that :

- the concept is fantastic ...and that I hope - as a former banker, whose own (minor) attempts to innovate were invariably met by " We've ALWAYS done things this way' or "We've NEVER done things that way" - would really like SYME to succeed;

- I think that SYME has perhaps got ahead of itself and should be managing expectations in a more measured fashion : always better to underpromise and over -deliver, surely ?;

- as a 'for instance' , Storm Harbour has been up and running 5 months . Its 20 April RNS said [my CAPS]:

"SYME and StormHarbour are currently finalising the details of the securitisation programme which is anticipated to cover, within 12 months and through MULTI ISSUUANCES, the WHOLE of SYME's current portfolio of originated inventory contracts.

A further announcement will be made following completion of the placing of the INITIAL, including the amount raised and the sub-portfolio of inventories (and related sectors) that the Platform will COMMENCE monetising in favour of its clients."

No-one would be happier than me to see a meaningful update on Storm Harbour.

Hope this clarifies.

Hi Gotham,

.."made false accusations..."

Say more.

Hi Ukheaven,

'That doesn't make sense' .
YOUR comment 'doesn't make sense' .
Give me a clue as to what you're on about.

ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

Once again, I fear you're extrapolating and making 2+2 = 5 (and maybe more).

'If I were'.... as a trainee banker in Dubai in the late '70's , (Friday weekend, Sat/Sun open, Mon am 'free' until London - 6 hours behind - opened), and the lowest form of life in the bank, I had a 'window of opportunity', when (a) it was my turn to go into the Bank on Friday to check the telex paper hadn't run out ; (b) I had access to the telex room; and (c) I'd just finished being i/c the 2-part payment security codes.
I worked out that I could make an unauthorised payment (probably to Brazil : no extradition treaty); remove the telex back-copy evidence; feign sickness ' no show' Sat ; and be well away before any alarm bells rang.

Most things in life - for better or worse - happen where 'inclination' coincides with 'opportunity'.

ATB

Hi krayzkat,

.."SYME has staff, and now can utilise staff from Epic SIM, to originate (find) investors and clients..."

The more sources SYME can tap - preferably without 'margin compression' - the better !

A couple of the 'Concert party' are 'incentivized' already (Prospectus p.129) :

"Antonio De Francisis Antonio De Francisis co-founded Datoom S.r.l. (“Datoom”) with Simone Concetti (which they jointly own) and has spent over thirty years in IT business, focusing on enterprise software.
Antonio has a business contract with Supply@ME whereby he receives a oneoff commission of 0.5 per cent. of any inventory successfully funded through his introduction.
Antonio De Francisis has an interest of 0.1 per cent. in Supply@ME.

Simone Concetti Simone co-founded Datoom with Antonio De Francisis and is also currently Managing Director of Fondaco-CarVal, an Italian Bank.
Simone also has a business contract with Supply@ME whereby he receives a one-off commission of 0.5 per cent. of any inventory successfully funded through his introduction.
Simone Concetti has an interest of 1.4 per cent. in Supply@ME. "

ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

Interesting set of signals !

Bit of a 'smoking gun' if the FCA were ever to investigate ......oh ! wait......;->.....and you're telling others in the know, which seems somewhat counter-productive. Unless it's a spoof, of course...

Bluff and double-bluff ! I'd use a burner or the girlfriend's whatsapp, myself ...

ATB

Hi Sirius50,

You should charge Proactive a fee for your input.....;->

When you wrote ..."Seriously though, I`m glad AZ confirmed my thoughts. That piece of the jigsaw fits..." are you saying that you now believe that AZ has indeed found a loophole in the regs ?

I struggled to follow the somewhat arcane IFRS references in the ding-dong you had with apunter2 on the 'Any accountants ? thread'....

TIA and ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

Unfortunate typo, I think you meant :

If you have a 10 % rise on 1m [1p]shares you've made £1k in profit.
If you have a 10% rise on 10k {£ 1]shares, you've made £1[K] in profit.

Peeps might be confused !

ATB

Hi jimbob1983,

Thanks for clarifying the difference between trading a pledge and trading a share.

The 29/7 1AF2 RNS refers not only to a 'transfer of security' but also - 3 times - points 7, 8 A and 9 to a corresponding reduction, from 23.91 to 5.92 % (ie 18%) of the voting rights in SYME .

Is there any economic 'added value' to the security pledged for having ceded voting rights as well ?

TIA and ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

No contadiction at all.

."Why not share HWC's rebuttal?
Why continue questioning it, when you've said you read their rebuttal."

(a) I didn't share their rebuttal because reference to it would be the first time 99% of the posters on this board would be aware of the (alleged) issue. Unlikely though it may seem, I have no wish to create unnecessary doubt, especially (as I said) I wasn't aware of the underlying (reddit) , so had no basis on which to even guess if there was any substance

(b) Show me where I continued to 'question it'. If you can.

ATB

Hi apunter2,

I've had a look back and can't see what you're referring to.

If it's a quibble about 'over-valuation of IP' versus' over-valuation (as I see it) of newsflow, the 'glass half full' case vs the 'glass half empty' case is covered here :

.."In the short-run, the stock market is a voting machine. Yet, in the long-run, it is a weighing machine.

Each purchase and sale of a security impinges on its perceived value. These transactions are similar to votes which increase or decrease the stock price. Transitory news and emotions may influence the price in the short run; however, in the long run, the stream of earnings or losses of a company cannot be ignored. Clarity regarding the fundamentals of a business emerges over time, and the market begins to properly weigh its value "

Attributed to Benjamin Graham, endorsed by his acolyte Warren Buffett.

Enjoy your weekend
ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

Thanks for finding the reddit background, which I wasn't aware of.

I looked at all 3 x stocklenders' websites as part of DYOR to understand their terms of trade and possible implications for " SYME " (ie including 1AF2), got as far as the rebuttal on HWC's and left it at that. If I were 's**t-stirring', dontcha think I'd have posted something about it ?

From UPC, I got these significant bits : "Loan terms are based on evaluation of the risk and future performance associated with the securities to be pledged as collateral. LOANS ARE INTEREST-ONLY AND NON-RECOURSE, the BORROWER HAS THE OPTION OF WALKING AWAY AT ANY TIME WITH NO FURTHER LIABILITY. In the event of a loan default, there is no reporting to any credit bureaus or governmental agencies, nothing on file and no public notice is issued. There is no adverse consequence to the borrower’s credit."
The 2 in bold tell me that UPC can't go after SYME/1AF2 if the realizable collateral falls below the loan amount, so if UPC is sensible it's less likely to agree to leverage up excessively on any rise in value. That's what leads me to think that they wouldn't take that risk. What's the business opportunity attraction for them, then ? Ironically, by 'monetising their inventory' : it would be easier/safer to make money just be trading the shares, as I described recently.
So, a different risk to SYME shareholders than the one I first imagined.

As to what would happen if 1AF2 repaid the loans and wanted its shares back and the lender(s) defaulted (a la HWC rebutted allegation), I assume it would have done its due diligence beforehand. I haven't done a background check on any of the 3, there's only so far down a rabbit-hole I want to go.

From Stock Loan Solutions , I got the shrinkage margin (45-60%) and a comparative/indicative of interest rates, see

$25K $300K $1.5M $3.5M
Stock Loan Solutions* 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
E-Trade 9.75% 8.25% 6.75% 6.75%
Fidelity 8.82% 7.57% 5.00% 5.00%
Schwab 8.82% 7.57% N/A N/A
TD Ameritrade 9.75% 8.25% N/A N/A
Hope the formatting works.
Obviously, they don't talk about direct competitors...;->

For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not acting in concert / private with anyone else, occasionally another poster here will contribute something on the board that clarifies/corrects my understanding and prompts me to check something out or throws a new light on something, which - it may sound old-fashioned - is what BB's used to be about : mutual help .

I'd call out apunter2, jimbob 1983 , savvy6 and seadoc (no particular order) in this regard, apols to any of their ilk that I've not name-checked .

ATB

Hi dancingfred,

..betting against a share price rise...

The 3 x lenders probably lent £ 2-3 million agst shares then worth £ 4.5 million, now worth £ 45 million.

" Can't sing, can't act, ....."
ATB

Hi apunter2,

There are 2 x RNS's, the first reports AZ's direct holding, as you say unchanged.
The second reports 1AF2 (AZ's indirect holding) and records the drop from 23.91% to 5.92% = 18%, which as you indirectly pointed out, is now no longer reportable......

HTH

Hi seadoc,

It feels a lifetime ago, but I'm circling back to your last Monday post (in the TW thread) where you described trying to understand the shareholder structure, only to conclude that 'it was a web within a web , covered in treacle'.

No, don't be shy, tell us what you really think ;->

You appear to understand these things, certainly better than I do, so I wonder if - looking higher up the ownership hierarchy - you could say what might be the intended purpose of the puts and calls on 66% of the shares of The Avant Group (TAG) (Prospectus p130)., starting

4. Option agreements between certain Concert Party members
On 7 February 2020, members of the Concert Party, as detailed below, entered into a number of put and
call option agreements. These agreements contain no vesting conditions and only relate to the relevant
party’s shareholdings In The AvantGarde Group. The AvantGarde Group, on completion of the Transaction
will hold 23,895,553,949 Ordinary Shares (72.95 per cent. of the Enlarged Share Capital).

The calls are all history, the puts are exerciseable between 6 and 12 months from 08 August 2020.

I haven't a clue what - if anything - this means, but it appears to affect one way or another the eventual ownership of 66x 72 = approx 47.5% of SYME , so grateful for any light you can throw.

TIA and ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

Your 10:43.

You acknowledge that the 3 x funders are interested in doing more business, an 'obvious' way would be to lend more agst the increased value of the security, in a virtuous circle.

You've also recognised that they'd want to de-risk from time and speculate (aka guess) that this might part explain the 20% post RNS drop in share price.

An even easier , lower risk way to 'do more business' would be to play around with the share-price on a daily or periodic basis, selling high, buying low. They have 5.9 billion shares to play with and approx 500 trading days before the loan-for-shares can first be unwound aka the music stops. With avge daily volumes per s'pedia of 485m per day, they could cycle through the entire holding at around 120m per day.

On high volume, post news days, they could re-cycle a lot more. They wouldn't always get it right, of course, but the size of their holdings would make it relatively easy to move the market in THEIR preferred direction.

We'd all like to think that SYME to some extent has shareholder interests at heart and there are rules and protections encouraging it to do so.

These people have neither.

ATB

Average daily trading volume per s'pedia is 485m per day, if they between them accounted for 25 % of the day's trade

Hi IraMil7,

...if £4.5m loan can be repaid now..

It can't . Minimum loan period is 2 years, per the RNS.

ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

My comments INTERLEAVED

"I would say your calculations are a projection and a guess based off of your research and not the terms of a the deal.

OF COURSE THEY'RE A GUESS , PARTLY INFORMED BY WHAT I'VE GLEANED FROM THE LENDERS' WEBSITES AND (HISTORIC) SECURITY LEVELS. THEY HAVE TO BE A GUESS BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE COMMERCIALLY SENSITIVE. YOU'RE HAPPY TO ACCEPT 'TRUST ME', I'M NOT.

The £200-£300m in lending facility you suggest, I think sounds like a great deal for a collateral of £4.5m
(1)THAT'S IF THE LENDERS AGREE TO RE-VALUE, WHICH THEY MAY NOT (2) I AGREE THEY'RE LIKELY TO (AFTER ALL, THEY'D LIKE TO MONETISE THEIR 'INVENTORY' TOO ;-> (3) WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY DO...AND THEN WANT TO 'DE-RISK AS YOU YOURSELF SPECULATE (= GUESS ?) THEY'VE ALREADY DONE (A 20% DOWN DAY, YOU SAID)
You are thinking this is the only funding deal going. There was 16 investors on board for the first coupons, this is another funding source. The 272 Banks are on the "self funding" model and the RNS yesterday will bring in more.
WE HAVE NO IDEA WHICH DEAL GAVE RISE TO THE SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY REQUIREMENT OR WHAT KNOCK-ON EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON ANY OTHER DEALS IN THE PIPELINE. HAVING BEEN MADE AWARE THAT SECURITY WAS ON OFFER, WOULDN'T YOU INSIST ON THE SAME FOR YOURSELF ?
To say I am satisfied with your points now they've been worked through is an understatement. It's actually given me more confidence in SYME.
THAT'S YOUR ABSOLUTE PREROGATIVE.

Hi Holly14,

See this https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/supply-me-capital-SYME/share-news/Supply-ME-Capital-PLC-Director-PDMR-Shareholding/82948847 and the other same day RNS...and the 'Inquiring' thread for some discussion on what various people think it means.

ATB

Hi Weathergeek,

£ 1 to charity seems a bit curmudgeonly ;-> !

When you write ..."SYME has been generating working capital throughout June July and Aug and will continue to do so....", this is all well and good, (and it will be interesting to learn the actual numbers) , but of course none of SYME's cashflow is available to support the structured funding models that now (per AZ Proactive interview) require an (indirect) 'first loss' cash contribution and made necessary the 1AF2 deal

I earlier wrote that , at the time of pledged shares deal, I calculate that 5.9 billion shares @ 0.075p ie face £ 4.5million @ UPC's typical 45-65% LTV would generate net funds available for security of £ 2-3 million. At a 10% security margin (to be meaningful), that would support £ 20-30 million in funding.
Even if the lenders lend against current 0.75 p (ie face £ 45 million, net £ 20-30 million), that theoretically supports £ 200-300million in funding.

An impressive sum, but insignificant in the context of the billions of prospective business in the pipeline. The pledged shares deal helps prime the pump, but I'm not sure how much water will actually flow....and how much/for how long a cash contribution will have to be found.

Maybe later investors will be more comfortable with an up-and-running model and waive / reduce the security requirement ?

Guess we'll find out in due course.

BTW, let me know if you think any of the assumptions in my calculations are wrong

ATB