Yes my arrived too from Evraz Luxembourg.
Https://twitter.com/abc202324/status/1668549873380065281?s=46&t=p-fBnvpF9tMFyB57eUoEZQ
Agreed / cant see him put 1.5B on the table.
I think of the Dane and Camelot would go as JV together, they need only 59%. Even at 1.8B gbp (£15 SP) valuation, it will coat them a little bit over £1B. Would be less than 10% of the actual Net worth
hi ayke,
easy one. i assume the change programme can easy eat up / 150-180m gbp cash. if you want continuous to have a yearly saving of 300m gbp; that will have its upfront costs.
assume that working capital is now important for the new business model.
i do not want to judge 11% interest / however its peanuts moving forward as asos will be back on 300-400m profit a year.
we have the ******* jackpot here, i can imagine not easy to believe. enjoy the ride moving forward.
ASOS EVALUTION BASED ON H1/23 RESULTS /11 Jun 2023 15:06
I think what many people don’t understand that driving change is an investment to improve the business moving forward. I drive Change programmes since 15 years for 3 Public companies, which one is an international retailer which has Regional Warehouses (10 Worldwide). This is an analysis from a Change Management background.
Fundamentals
Reading the H1-23 Report it provides some simple figures. Revenue down 8% (YOY) to £1840M, Adjusted loss of £87.4M instead of profit for tax of £14.8M for H1-22. Special Write off drives Operating loss to £272.5M from £4.4M a year ago. NETDEBT from £62.6M to £431.7M. NET ASSET: £793.7M and a Market Cap of £387M.
Before we get forward lets take H1-2018 where the shareprice was between £60-70 or Market Cap of £6-7B. Revenue £1158M, Profit before tax £29.9M - NET ASSET: £374M
Cost of Change
Anyone has done a massive change programme understand that it comes with its costs. £300M profitability benefits which will be taken year by year forward the company is implementing. If you have a longterm saving effect inside such changes its normal to spent 50-70% as an invest. So Asos started that change and needed an original invest to handle including a write off. Its not untypical consider that inside the £87.4M loss in H1-23 a massive Change Programme is paid and we look to improve £300M its likely we end up with £200-300M profit yearly moving forward.
What does the CEO Saying:
Despite the ongoing challenges in the operating environment, ASOS is on track to deliver full year targets of: o Over £300m of Driving Change agenda benefits, with over £100m delivered in H1. Actions already taken will drive more than 95% of c.£200m profitability benefits expected in H2 FY23; o Inventory reduction of c.20% year-on-year (‘YoY’), with 9% reduction vs FY22 achieved in H1, slightly ahead of plan; o Adjusted gross margin improvement of c.100bps, with recent run-rate up more than 300bps YoY; o Profitability and cash generation in H2 FY23 and beyond, with £40-60m adjusted earnings before interest and tax (‘EBIT’) and over £150m free cash inflow7 in H2 FY23;
In simple Terms we can see in H2-23 still a change programme spent money but already so much improvements that Profit before tax will be £40-60M but makes total sense based on my 15 years experience in such programmes of work.
So whats ahead of us:
Consider that we get £80M cash via placing and £40-60M profit after tax we should be at a NET ASSET position of approx. £950M, I would assume that we see in 2024 a profit after tax in region of £400M consider that changes are taken in the future.
Consider that back in 2018 we made in a half year £30M Profit after tax with NETDEBT of £374M / MCAP if £6-7B and we face for H2-23 a profit of £40-60M Profit after tax with NETDEBT of approx. £950M … What should be our MCAP ? £10B ??
GLA / JACKPOT
Reality is, this SP was hit hard and will recover quickly. A bit like PREM Africa. Fall to 0.5 and move up quick back.
I think the fundamentals for this a far better here and look forward to the news.
You have to think about that the Half year result came out on 11th of May. You will know on 11Th of May how May will look like.
Just for awareness / Asos.com was 6% more visited in May than April and more visited than mast year same month.
As well Zara just communicated that they had a fab quarter with 12 increase in sales.
That a placing happen is not negative thinking that you need money for an expensive change programme.
11th of May would be only 20 days till closure of Q3-23 for Asos. They need that Q3-23 will be great and can see how the changes implemented already drive profitability!!
Be ensured that the Board which has reps of the Major Shareholder, get regular updates. And no surprise that the top2 major were happy to provide cash .
This will fly ! Jackpot
I think what many people don’t understand that driving change is an investment to improve the business moving forward. I drive Change programmes since 15 years for 3 Public companies, which one is an international retailer which has Regional Warehouses (10 Worldwide). This is an analysis from a Change Management background.
Fundamentals
Reading the H1-23 Report it provides some simple figures. Revenue down 8% (YOY) to £1840M, Adjusted loss of £87.4M instead of profit for tax of £14.8M for H1-22. Special Write off drives Operating loss to £272.5M from £4.4M a year ago. NETDEBT from £62.6M to £431.7M. NET ASSET: £793.7M and a Market Cap of £387M.
Before we get forward lets take H1-2018 where the shareprice was between £60-70 or Market Cap of £6-7B. Revenue £1158M, Profit before tax £29.9M - NET ASSET: £374M
Cost of Change
Anyone has done a massive change programme understand that it comes with its costs. £300M profitability benefits which will be taken year by year forward the company is implementing. If you have a longterm saving effect inside such changes its normal to spent 50-70% as an invest. So Asos started that change and needed an original invest to handle including a write off. Its not untypical consider that inside the £87.4M loss in H1-23 a massive Change Programme is paid and we look to improve £300M its likely we end up with £200-300M profit yearly moving forward.
What does the CEO Saying:
Despite the ongoing challenges in the operating environment, ASOS is on track to deliver full year targets of: o Over £300m of Driving Change agenda benefits, with over £100m delivered in H1. Actions already taken will drive more than 95% of c.£200m profitability benefits expected in H2 FY23; o Inventory reduction of c.20% year-on-year (‘YoY’), with 9% reduction vs FY22 achieved in H1, slightly ahead of plan; o Adjusted gross margin improvement of c.100bps, with recent run-rate up more than 300bps YoY; o Profitability and cash generation in H2 FY23 and beyond, with £40-60m adjusted earnings before interest and tax (‘EBIT’) and over £150m free cash inflow7 in H2 FY23;
In simple Terms we can see in H2-23 still a change programme spent money but already so much improvements that Profit before tax will be £40-60M but makes total sense based on my 15 years experience in such programmes of work.
So whats ahead of us:
Consider that we get £80M cash via placing and £40-60M profit after tax we should be at a NET ASSET position of approx. £950M, I would assume that we see in 2024 a profit after tax in region of £400M consider that changes are taken in the future.
Consider that back in 2018 we made in a half year £30M Profit after tax with NETDEBT of £374M / MCAP if £6-7B and we face for H2-23 a profit of £40-60M Profit after tax with NETDEBT of approx. £950M … What should be our MCAP ? £10B ??
GLA / JACKPOT
I am laughing since days. So many derampers here unbelievable!
Stay on facts and maybe look onto books as well … everyone comes up with fantasy stories.
Fact is the company has 400M headroom. It was announced that money will be spent to drive a major change.
Most of the write off is a onetime activity and could be a clean up in the books which has increased over years.
80M of were losses which has relevance. Inside the 80M will be lots of money spent for the change.
We should see an improvement for H2-23 and back ontrack for 2024.
Its the best time now to buy out the company. Simple drive the improvements, move HQ to US and make a new mega IPO at New York maybe in 2025.