e.g: http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=1367479 "US$2 Billion NPV Valuation of El Sauz and Fleur Lithium Project, Mexico. (22 December 2014) The NPV is achieved with a constrained optimised pit shell of an average of 69,800 tonnes of lithium carbonate per annum over an initial 20-year mine life, with an average of 75,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate per annum between years 2-19."
Yes, I think this was aimed at you @Bannor https://youtu.be/5iOT8agwzIY?t=2766 47:01 "the market seems to only remember the highest valuation that I quote without taking into account these changes" Time to give it a rest on that one
"The Chinese company in March announced an ambitious plan to increase its lithium production capacity roughly fivefold to 600,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate"
When I investigated and looked at the court filings and company filings it was clear to me that only some areas had royalties on them, I know some (including yourself) disagreed at the time but KM also said no royalties too.
Well, we are now dealing with Ganfeng not Bacanora an entirely different prospect so I think some recalibration is needed. They are putting hundreds of millions of dollars in to this, it makes sense for them to try to do a deal before they invest and make it more valuable.
What valuation do you put on the Sonora JV? I personally think some will be surprised by it's potential value. KM believes it is worth more with Ganfeng at the helm and I agree with that (due to the unannounced scale up that is inevitable in my view).
Doing so would increase the NPV of the KDNC share of the project substantially. For example they may want to have two pits from the start meaning the JV is mined from year 1 for example.
It would not have made sense for Bacanora to make a deal 8-9 years out, what I am suggesting is that Ganfeng will want to mine this area sooner so it is now more pertinent and they will want to do a deal to buy it before announcing their expansion plans.
KM made it clear he is open to sensible offers from Ganfeng but also a toll treaty arrangement is another option open to us. It is in Ganfengs and our best interest in some kind of deal at some point in the near future. They are making money hand over fist at the current lithium prices let’s not forget and will be keen to develop this as soon as possible. Land purchases (in our JV area) for expansion etc…
So why would Ganfeng invest hundreds of millions and then suddenly stop when they need ore from the JV area? Which they will need far sooner if the increase production. It makes no sense.