Member Info for EV_Bull

There is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting for the open offer, any dips to 20p will be bought up.

Because 41p is many many times more likely than 15p. So while you sit on the sidelines we’ll be doubling our investment.

You can calculate an NPV for our 4% ish of the mine plan but it’s likely worth more than than when Ganfeng scale it up.
We’ve all done this topic to death but my own minimum / conservative valuation is £20m but it could be worth multiples of that if Ganfeng scale up their plans for the project. And Bannor will tell you KM quoted $200m once in a lost webinar! KM says they have internal valuations but it could hurt negotiations if they were public.

Here's a starter for ten.....
#1 EMH Country Risk much lower, Prem = Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Ethiopia!
#2 EU grants / subsidies / soft loans
#3 location near 30+ battery factories
#4 Multi Billion $ mining partner CEZ
#5 Resource easily upgraded with magnetic separation
#6 Tin credits substantially lower the cost
#7 Quality board & CEO
#8 CEZ building their own gigafactory in country (likely to partner with VW/Skoda)
#9 Strong support from institutional investors
#10 One of the first Li producers to market in Europe

The crazy thing about the SP is that even it Sonora was worth zero Cadence would still be massively undervalued at 21p

Here is a better piece on the topic where is sounds like the president is back tracking.
https://mexicobusiness.news/mining/news/purchase-ganfeng-lithium-was-not-risk-cofece

The good thing is Ganfeng and therefore China is in our corner and I personally don’t think they would have spent hundreds of millions buying BCN to have troubles at this stage. Maybe it will be good for Ganfeng to say they have a British partner still involved to help the anti-China sentiment.
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After President López Obrador criticized the Federal Economic Competition Commission (COFECE) for authorizing the acquisition of the Sonora lithium deposit by Chinese company Ganfeng Lithium, COFECE replied that the purchase did not represent any risk to  competitors or consumers. In addition, the commission explained that the country's laws allow national and international investments, for which Ganfeng Lithium had the right to request an acquisition.
However, López Obrador criticized COFECE for having more powers than him and be able to deliver national goods to foreign companies. In addition, López Obrador said that the US reproached the Mexican authorities for this purchase because China is considered the US´ biggest commercial competition. In reference to this, López Obrador said he wishes not to enter into conflicts and that these permits must be reviewed thoroughly and avoid any misunderstandings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjD3EVC1-zU

Putting the current SP in to context:
Market cap post open offer 176,081,537 shares x £0.21 = £36,853,866
Public equity holdings: £13m + Cash ~£3.5m (after paying for the 27%)

So the current market value of the below assets is £20m
Amapa 27% + option for 49%. 100% NPV8 $1-2bn previously valued at $660m Glencore previously interested in buying
Sonora JV, China's multi-billion Ganfeng lithium as a partner planning to scale up.
Yangibana 30% JV, ASX:HAS worth £267m Market Cap
LT/LS 31.5%, Next to Core Lithium (£731m) and Charger (£14m)

Yes the sp is crazy undervalued due to the placing hangover, no I don't think I'm wrong in saying this should be nearer 60p than 20p given the above.

http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/operacional/programacao-de-navios
KANG MAN inbound (maybe for Geralds) will keep our Dev guys busy.

The "simplistic" view is wrong, if you know the haricut the unsecured were taking (from JRP) you can work it out assuming that has not changed (why would it, the negotiation was only with the banks).

If you can calculate the stockpile's value and subtract shipping costs then you can also crudely work it out with the 90/10 split KM suggested at todays prices. I believe it's actually far better for us than you have calculated.

The other thing is it means the option to take the 49% will definitely be offered because the money will be needed in the project.
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Amapa - Details on the 49% option

CEO Kiran Morzaria has stated the below in a 2020 interview available here:
https://youtu.be/mGhDQjFgP7k?t=541

"we'll be looking for project funding of $24 million, that will be project equity, that can be a new partner going into the asset at the asset level, so we'd still have our 27 percent or of course you know we could go up to 49 percent, it really depends on the economics, the great thing is we have choices here and then you look for one hundred and forty to one hundred and fifty million worth of debt financing which would fund the recommissioning"

Also discussed in the latest q&a as now estimated to be $20m-$30m
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iOT8agwzIY

@Olderandwiser The bank debt is very substantially lower than you might think, the banks don't want the write-down to be published so I won't say any more but you can work it out for yourself.

Hopefully the PFS will help the market see what this is worth because it's far more than our share price currently reflects.

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http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=31142821540789137
Details of the Settlement Agreement

Cadence alongside Indo Sino entered into a Settlement Agreement with DEV and the Secured Bank Creditors on 24 December 2021.

The original credit facility provided to DEV has a principle amount outstanding of US$135 million ("Credit Facility"). The Settlement Agreement settles all of the principle amount plus all interest, default interest, outstanding costs and fees ("Settlement Amount"). The Credit Facility is secured over all of DEV's equity and assets.

As a result of the Settlement Agreement and the JRP approved in August 2019, the total principle amounts owed to the secured and unsecured creditors in classes I to IV of DEV have been reduced from approximately US$231 million to approximately US$103 million or approximately 45% of the original value.

The Settlement Amount will be paid over two years from the effective date of the Settlement Agreement, and It is to be be satisfied by the net profits from the sale of DEV's iron ore stockpiles. As agreed in the JRP in August 2019 the unsecured creditors will be paid from DEV's free cash flow over a period of nine years.

Under the Settlement Agreement, DEV remains the obligor with the Secured Creditors having no recourse of repayment of the Settlement Amount to either Cadence or Indo Sino. The Settlement Agreement will remain secured over all of DEV's equity and assets.

I have to agree Malik, also BHL seems crazy in comparison to this, EMH, KDNC and ATM are very undervalued currently compared to the "hype" stocks.

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2022-Cadence-Open-Offer-Circular.pdf

Everyone has a price @Evan ;-)

Yes is the answer, for sure, Amapa is a high grade premium iron ore needed for the future low carbon economy and we are at a bargain basement price.

e.g:
https://www.mining.com/web/glencore-widens-review-of-assets-eyes-acquisitions/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-angloamerican-amapa-idUSBRE8A10U920121102
Glencore among suitors for Anglo's Brazil Amapa stake (2012)

yes, smart move to guarantee that the stockpile pays off the bank debt.

Yes, but it carried that risk, it wasn't worth gambling on, BoD are saying they already told us the 20% was guaranteed so they didn't expect a big jump on the news. The shares will eventually move to stickier hands.

Exactly my point!!! Which is why they did the placing to secure the funds!

I gave an example "the open offer doesn't get fully subscribed because the price dips below"

So you deprive the company of the ability to raise capital when it's needed (because it takes 3 weeks to get shareholders approval etc.) or the open offer doesn't get fully subscribed because the price dips below and you lose Amapa because of it, or force a fire sale of other assets to raise the capital. How is that good for shareholder value?