Member Info for EV_Bull

News from Mexico is looking pretty positive…. might explain some of today’s action.

We are re-instating the existing licenses for the project, not getting new ones, that's why KM was not changing the scope of the project. Rail and port licenses at least, I think work is underway / needed for the dam licenses and compliance.

KM has stated several times that the conditions for the 27% to vest are now satisfied and that aligns with the presentation, the other licenses are not considered "key" in this description.

all subject to change of course

IDC FALCON

You only have to look at the number of interested parties, several wanted this even at the JRP stage and several when Anglo was selling it, DP Jindal, Zamin, Glencore etc. I believe it's just got even more valuable as it's now a good source for Europe to replace Russian Iron ore exports too given that we are north Brazil selling to Europe has to be a distinct possibility now.

We all know the markets are turbulent and this can create irrational prices and opportunities. The fundamentals are sound, commodities are soaring, the assets are worth multiples of the SP and all are in good mining jurisdictions. The Amapa government are begging us to get the mine operational, how often do you hear that, only a matter of time before value is realised.

Targets: "Crystallise value on at least one of our non-public assets"
Pg 18
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Cadence_PPT_Feb2022.pdf

CLA: Trading Halt
CXO: Core and Tesla execute Binding Term Sheet for Lithium supply - Core up 15%

Sale price is not totally representative because you would need to add the existing debt that was in the project and taken on by the new buyer.

Been ignoring the noise on here but as KM highlighted last night the investment case is there for a 30x upside on the $6m investment:
~$60/t costs ~$149/t sale price multiplied by 5.3 million tonnes.
https://dt9xom8irs6kr.cloudfront.net/u238195/849186-164975259721199496.mp4 (from 42 mins)

Revenue $787,124,400 /yr
Gross Profit $86/t $453,224,400
Tax (Assumed 35%) $30/t $158,628,540
Net Profit $56 /t = $294,595,860

NPV8 circa $2bn

Strong Buy

TARGETS
• Identified and developing undervalued assets that will deliver capital growth to our shareholders.
• Invested in long-term partners whom we know well and projects that deliver strong economic returns
• Strong demand for commodities and compounds we are invested in
• Iron Ore is required for fiscal stimulus around the world
• Lithium and other technology minerals are crucial to achieve the electrification of transport.
• Amapa Iron Ore
• Completion of 27% vesting into asset
• Completion of Pre Feasibility Study
• Re-establish joint operating agreement with Tucano – to increase mine life
• Define value of remaining 22% first right of refusal
• Crystallise value on at least one of our non-public assets
Slide 18

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Cadence_PPT_Feb2022.pdf

https://dt9xom8irs6kr.cloudfront.net/u238195/849186-164975259721199496.mp4
42 mins in

Good news, the less dilution at this price the better.

Fortune favours the brave…

https://www.branduk.net/daily-mail-justin-urquhart-stewart-co-founder-seven-investment-management-tips-cadence-minerals-at-28p/

I am factoring in that the 36m + debt + a small amount of stockpile profit will be used for that period so I am instead adding debt repayments to the cashflow, I understand this might be unorthodox.

I can' t claim it's perfect but it's my best assumptions based on the projected cashflows
I have not included the stockpile because it nets out, I'm also assuming debt repayments for project financing start after the mine is profitable. Something like the below:
Year Cashflow
0 -$36,000,000 (Cadence investment for 49%)
1 $0
2 $0
3 $0
4-28 $271,925,680 net profit (after tax)

Based on the above NPV8 is $2,100,271,466

The net profit is based on the below inputs
-------------
Per year 65% 62%
Tonnes wmt 4,400,000 900000
Price/dmt $159.20 $130.20
Price/wmt $146 $120
Revenue $644,441,600 $107,805,600
Opex $21/t $111,300,000
SG&A $2/t $10,600,000
Capex/loans $10/t $53,000,000
Shipping $30/t $159,000,000
Total Costs $63/t $333,900,000
Gross Profit $79/t $418,347,200
Tax (Assumed 35%) $28 $146,421,520
Net Profit $51/t $271,925,680
Net Profit 49% $133,243,583
Net Profit 49% (GBP) £97,858,751
NPV8 (100%) $2,100,271,466
IRR 97.72%

With an extended mine life to 25 years using today's ore price the NPV8 (100%) is likely to be in the region of $2bn.
The PFS will help to outline the value here for the market.

Shipping update:
SANTANA PORT PIER 1 KANG MAN IRON ORE 45.000 LOADING 13/02/2022 13/02/2022 17/02/2022 SERVEPORTO DEV / NORTE TRADING
SANTANA PORT PIER 1 TBN DEV IRON ORE 45.000 LOADING 25/02/2022 25/02/2022 01/03/2022 TBN DEV / NORTE TRADING
SANTANA PORT PIER 1 TBN DEV IRON ORE 45.000 LOADING 10/03/2022 14/03/2022 18/03/2022 TBN DEV / NORTE TRADING

Disclaimer: "DEV" Can be shipment of Gerald Metals' ore as per JRP

http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428214199398325
As of the end of August 2021, DEV had shipped three cargoes totalling approximately 143,000 wet tonnes of 58% iron ore. DEV is also contracted to carry out logistical and shipping activities for third parties who have stockpiles held at DEV's port, which it has been doing since it completed its third shipment in May of this year. These third-party stockpiles are separate from the 1.25 million tonnes of 58% iron ore (+/- 10%) owned by DEV. At this point, DEV intends to continue to carry out these shipping activities for these third parties. This is because current shipping rates have increased dramatically (US$80-90 per tonne), which is reducing the profitability of shipping DEV's material. We believe that these rates should normalise over the medium term; therefore, the shipping of DEV's material will recommence at a later stage.

Prem is an absolute garbage pump and dump, we have far better assets, far closer to production, we will have our day soon enough.