Member Info for EV_Bull

Better formatted version:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/teo9dk/comment/i3rds3h/

My estimate:
| Per year | 65% | 62% | Total |
| -------------------------------------- | ------------ | --------------- | ------------ |
| Tonnes wmt | 4,400,000 | 900000 | 5,300,000 |
| Price/dmt | $183.60 | $159.70 | |
| Price/wmt | $169 | $147 | $165 |
| Revenue | $743,212,800 | $132,231,600 | $875,444,400 |
| | Per Tonne | Total | |
| Opex | $21 | $111,300,000 | |
| SG&A | $2 | $10,600,000 | |
| Shipping | $30 | $159,000,000 | |
| EBITDA | $112 | $594,544,400 | |
| Capex/loan repayments (my est) | $10 | $53,000,000 | |
| Total Costs | $63 | $333,900,000 | |
| Gross Profit | $102 | $541,544,400 | |
| Tax (Assumed 35%) | $36 | $189,540,540 | |
| Net Profit | $66 | $352,003,860 | |
| Net Profit 49% | | $172,481,891 | |
| Net Profit 49% (GBP) | | £131,996,079 | |
| Net Profit 27% (GBP) | | £72,732,534 | |
| After tax NPV8 (100%) 25yr | | $2,576,735,369 | |
| After tax IRR (100%) 25 yr | | 54.70% | |
| After tax NPV8 (49%) 25yr | | $1,320,007,738 | |
| After tax NPV8 (100%) 14yr | | $1,947,873,830 | |
| NPV8 (49%) GBP 25 yr | | £1,010,168,922 | |
| IRR (49%) 25 yr | | 80.91% | |
| NPV8 Per Cadence share | | £5.86 | |
| Earnings Per Cadence Share (49%) | | £0.77 | |
| NPV8 (27%) GBP | | £566,428,235 | |
| IRR (27%) | | 130.07% | |
| NPV8 Per Cadence share (27%) | | £3.29 | |
| Earnings Per Cadence Share (27%) | | £0.32 | |
| Per Cadence share 25% risked NPV (27%) | | £0.82 | |
| 25% risked NPV (27%) |

no

No, if we could transship to capesize it would save a lot, they will do that for the full production but not for the stockpile apparently- although I hope they are looking at it as the margin on the stockpile would be much higher if we could.

@Evan those margins were for mining and selling the 62&65% ore not for selling the 58% stockpile.

The stockpile probably has $30/t profit after shipping costs which is enough to pay the banks off (the debt reduction is far more than anyone else has realised I suspect).

EBITDA about $600m More figures here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/teo9dk/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals_asset/i33nith/

Meh, you just have to know where to look…
JIA YUE looks to be the next one.

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/ev/about-lithium
See below: the hydroxide contracts are monohydrate, this is what is being referred to.
Lithium hydroxide weekly price
Fastmarkets MB lithium hydroxide monohydrate: min 56.5% LiOH2O battery grade, spot prices CIF China, Japan and Korea, $/KG.

Date Price (US$ per kilogram)
31 March 2022 77.50
24 March 2022 72.50
17 March 2022 69.75
10 March 2022 68.50

I'm saying any and all references to "lithium hydroxide" are "lithium hydroxide monohydrate"
100kt of hydroxide is 88kt LCE
50kt of hydroxide is 44kt LCE

I believe it is usually expressed as lithium hydroxide monohydrate which has a different conversion factor to lithium hydroxide.
Look at page 6:
https://www.europeanmet.com/wp-content/uploads/19-May-2021-Release-LCTs.pdf
1 kg hydroxide = 880g LCE

Yes, it’s next week

“This is the first time the party has come out with a unified position to vote against it, leaving the government without the necessary votes to pass the controversial legislation.”

“After a major analysis, we have decided to vote against the initiative,” Moreno said at a public event. “Agreements and the law are meant to be followed and that, for us, is the only, absolute and unbreakable source of legitimacy.”

This sounds promising for us.

Mexican Opposition Party to Vote Against AMLO’s Power Bill
PRI president says his party will vote against the legislation Mexico president needs PRI to pass constitutional change.

My independently calculated EBITDA at the same ore prices is $592.5m.

Kiran has also stated based on a $160/dmt basis ($147/wmt) that the margins would be about $90/t-$100/t based on $30/t shipping costs and $22/t Opex + SG&A which is consistent with my numbers below. February 2022 (2:40) https://audioboom.com/posts/8026866-kiran-morzaria-of-cadence-discusses-their-fundraise-increased-ownership-of-amapa

Based on these figures:

Per year 65% 62% Total
Tonnes wmt 4,400,000t 900,000t 5,300,000t
Price/dmt $183.10 $159.70
Price/wmt $168 $147 $165/t
Revenue $741,188,800 $132,231,600 $873,420,400

On a per tonne basis:

-- Per tonne Total Running Total/t
Revenue $165 $873,420,400 $165
Opex ($21) ($111,300,000) $144
SG&A ($2) ($10,600,000) $142
Shipping ($30) ($159,000,000) $112
Total costs $53 $280,900,000 -
EBITDA $112 $592,520,400

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/teo9dk/comment/i33p1rp/

The market will wake up eventually!

Yes @obs and Iron Ore was ~$62/t when the JRP was entered in to.

To put it another way by my calculations
~£29m market cap

~£17m Equities/Cash leaves you with £12m for Amapa, Sonora, Yangibana, LT/LS
LT/LS Deal is £1.8m-£3.8m

So call it £19m total leaving £10m for Amapa, Sonora, Yangibana, seems like an extremely good risk/reward at this price when you consider Amapa was worth $1.2bn, what Ganfeng paid for BCN (prior to the Lithium price trebling) and the market cap of Hastings / price of rare-earths.

Well, It is my opinion that the market is pricing this incorrectly if you compare on a project by project basis to our peers.
Certainly AMLO in Mexico is a risk, clearly shipping the stockpile, completion of the PFS to know the cost and then achieving financing for Amapa are requirements going forward that the market should appreciate.

and HAS raised a further $40m for Yangibana

Plus Charger Metals up 16%
Ganfeng Sonora Phase 1 expansion to 50kt Hydroxide
LT/LS Deal announced worth up to £3.8m
Management Team in Amapa working on PFS
Iron ore up
Ships being loaded

I think basic arithmetic must be beyond the capabilities of the sellers today lol. The underlying investments are progressing very well this week.

It's not effective production capacity of Sonora, it's effective production capacity of Ganfeng in total, Sonora will increase that by 50ktpa and is labelled as under construction (aka in the pipeline) so that figure would be 120ktpa once constructed.