Member Info for EV_Bull

In the short term prices are as good as random, long term this is about commodity prices and project delivery, primarily the Amapa mine, EMH progressing from DFS to production or being bought out, Yangibana progressing to production and any equity swap we can do there, The IPO and results from LT/LS with at least AUD $4m being spent on drilling at Litchfield, Ganfeng pressing on with Sonora and resolving the status of the project with the Mexican govt.

A simple sum of the parts valuation is enough to see that the market cap is currently extremely cheap and far below net asset value.

Reuters May 12, 2022 10:14 a.m.
https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/amp/politica/AMLO-asegura-que-el-presidente-de-BlackRock-lo-invito-a-Nueva-York-para-hablar-de-inversiones-20220512-0040.html

AMLO assures that the president of BlackRock invited him to New York to talk about investments
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador explained that on Wednesday he received Larry Fink and that during their conversation they agreed that Mexico has "unbeatable conditions for foreign investment."

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said Thursday that Larry Fink , president of BlackRock , the world's largest asset manager, had invited him to New York in September to talk about investments in the Latin American country.

In his morning conference, the president explained that on Wednesday he received the executive and that during their conversation they agreed that Mexico has "unbeatable conditions for foreign investment ."

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/unyyb7/pentagon_asks_congress_to_fund_mining_projects_in/

RARE EARTHS

The United Kingdom refines nickel and has several proposed processing facilities for lithium and rare earths. Australia has mining and processing facilities for a range of minerals, including iron ore, lithium, copper and rare earths, a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn electricity into motion.

The Pentagon last year awarded a DPA grant worth $30.4 million to Australia-based Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (LYC.AX) to build a processing facility in Texas with privately held Blue Line Corp.

Last month, Lynas Chief Executive Amanda Lacaze complained that those funds have yet to be dispersed, citing ongoing negotiations over protection of her company's intellectual property.

The Pentagon has also granted at least $45 million to MP Materials Corp (MP.N), which controls the only U.S. rare earths mine but depends on China for processing.

The funds are to help MP's efforts to resume U.S. processing of those strategic minerals. Las Vegas-based MP said last week that it has started receiving those funds and that the Pentagon will have "certain rights to technical data" because of the financial support.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/uo9pi6/neil_hume_ft_on_twitter_first_tesla_and_now/

Only a matter of time for a bidding war to start for EMH, Nissan now throwing their hat in the ring.

Fox launches against AMLO for nationalization of lithium
https://amp.nacion321.com/ciudadanos/fox-se-lanza-contra-amlo-por-nacionalizacion-del-litio-lo-llama-lopez-cardenas/

Even in Mexico, Bacanora Lithium and its partner Ganfeng Lithium allocated about $420 million in their mine in Sonora.

Currently, Mexico does not produce lithium, an elementary component for the manufacture of electric car batteries, but that could change when Bacanora Lithium begins commercial operations in 2023.

Sorry if you've all been missing my numbers, I've been busy and got a bit bored with posting on here.
Per year 65% 62% Total
Tonnes wmt 4,400,000 900000 5,300,000
Price/dmt $150.50 $127.50
Price/wmt $138 $117 $135
Revenue $609,224,000 $105,570,000 $714,794,000
Per Tonne /Total
Opex $21/ $111,300,000
SG&A $2/ $10,600,000
Shipping $30/ $159,000,000
EBITDA $82/ $433,894,000
Capex/loan repayments (my est) $10/ $53,000,000
Total Costs $63/ $333,900,000
Gross Profit $72/ $380,894,000
Tax (Assumed 35%) $25/ $133,312,900
Net Profit $47/ $247,581,100
Net Profit 49% $121,314,739
Net Profit 49% (GBP) £97,944,668
Net Profit 27% (GBP) £53,969,511
After tax NPV8 (100%) 25yr $1,757,405,243
After tax IRR (100%) 25 yr 47.16%
After tax NPV8 (49%) 25yr $918,535,976
After tax NPV8 (100%) 14yr $1,315,096,935
NPV8 (49%) GBP 25 yr £741,589,206
IRR (49%) 25 yr 69.35%
NPV8 Per Cadence share (49%) £4.29
Earnings Per Cadence Share (49%) £0.57
NPV8 (27%) GBP £418,974,515
IRR (27%) 113.88%
NPV8 Per Cadence share (27%) £2.43
Earnings Per Cadence Share (27%) £0.25
Per Cadence share 25% risked NPV (27%) £0.61
25% risked NPV (27%) £104,743,629

These are my own calculations - DYOR etc

http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428221695889680

I think the LT/LS deal should close soon.

Zinnwaldite, KLiFeAlO10(OH, F)2, potassium lithium iron aluminium silicate hydroxide fluoride is a silicate mineral in the mica group.
It is classed as a hard rock project.

Even big tech like Google is -20% down ytd but lots of miners miners and oil / energy co’s had record profits last year and commodities are still very strong with big war chests. Lithium is also still on fire, expecting some deals to close soon, EMH, LT/LS, HAS equity swap, Amapa PFS and IPO, patiently waiting for the thesis to play out now, the market can do anything short term but I believe the assets are going to come good.

Fingers crossed for a speedy recovery for both Mr B and our SP.

JIA YUE 20/04/2022 - 24/04/2022
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:5916694/mmsi:477326600/imo:9854337/vessel:JIA_YUE

today

Ganfeng have supply agreements with Tesla, Tesla need Hydroxide for their 4680 batteries, where could it come from, Sonora?

“The bill that the president sent says absolutely nothing about the concessions that have already been awarded and explored”

Good link Jimb2
"it seems that, for Ganfeng, the decision of the Mexican government not to authorize the private exploitation of lithium in Mexico is an option that does not affect them due to retroactivity not allowed in the Constitution, since they even claim to have the MIA to start the removal and rescue of vegetation and endemic species prior to extraction"

Megalit is not planned to be mined anyway, so no loss at all there

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Bacanora-FS-Technical-Report-25-01-2018.pdf

Page# 137 (151 of the PDF)

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Sonora-Concessions-1030x621.png
Mexilit being our JV area which is later in the mine life, maybe they bring it forward as part of the 50,000t hydroxide phase 1 plans now.

Maybe it will force them to make use of the Mexilit concessions sooner so they are allowed to keep it, one can hope.