Member Info for EV_Bull

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:2419850/mmsi:538006041/imo:9742651/vessel:GENCO_FREEDOM

10 working days is tomorrow due to two public hols last week in Brazil

So we know #4 was for Dev and was Dev's ore for sure,
Check the reply on the FB on where the photo was taken "In cadence area old zamin".
Surely news soon....

I can't find anything else but I am enjoying the rise. Maybe even MrC will be happy today?
Where fore art thou great Observer, do you know anything?

Is this proof that #4 was for us....
https://www.facebook.com/FelipeRenan83/posts/4096096623770229

All TBN at the moment but I think we would expect to have an RNS before any more names appear as it would imply the deal is done, but that still doesn’t explain Marlin V of course, I am expecting that we get an update in the morning or this week at least.
I think It would take at least 7 days to get a ship to us so mid - end of June is more realistic for the next one which does tie in with #4 on the presentation, regardless of what is provisionally booked as it doesn’t appear anything has set off yet.

We are getting around $158/t, you can work it out from the below figures.

$86/t in costs, $72/t in gross profit.
$72/t x 1.39mt = $100m stockpile gross profit.

"loading of 45,947.253 wet tons of iron ore iron, total cost including freight of approximately US$ 3.99 million, estimated receipt of US$ 7.3 million for the sale"

Yes, interesting to see how things play out over the next few days now at it's clearly at odds with what the June presentation stated.

The presentation is still the anomaly and slightly open to interpretation. Of course there is still the possibility that the presentation is accurate and Obs idea that our ship has been given away or shared. It could then be read to mean the deal will be done before the end of June. Doesn't matter to me either way as long as it gets done what difference does it make.

why did you buy in to lithium companies so long ago? What was the investment thesis and your valuation back then?

Yes, fortunately I wasn't looking at resource companies until recently but clearly many were overvalued by the market (or are undervalued by the market today) a few years back.
There are plenty of other examples, SAV, BCN, EMH where you would have lost out for a long period of time. No point being bitter about it - it won't get you anywhere.

“Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.”

5=27-2 Obs.

I would hope anyone who bought in and has been waiting a year would be very happy, up 187.37%.

Someone will know more than me but I believe the cash call will come when the "project equity" requirement is needed which is part of the JRP requirements for DIP C and it's in the 13-18 months from settlement section on the presentation where we will be shipping stockpiles but not in operations.

MARLIN V should be about fully loaded by now, wonder if she'll be making a move before 7am...

The US$ 24-50m – Project Equity we'd need to find 27% of and 73% would be for Indo Sino this is the point at which indo may look for further investment. so it's a possibility we fund their part of the equity requirement for the further 22% stake.
That would mean we are paying $36.5m for the extra 22% at the $50m equity level or $17.5m ($24m). Or possibly they'd want more (maybe a lot more), who knows but I'm sure it must have been discussed. There may be an equity raise but selling out of EMH is another possibility and probably depends on the market cap at the time. Ultimately I can't see Indo wanting to put any money in and the deal is structured so they won't have to but they will be giving up equity of course.
To some extent we are forced to take 49% given the twelve month buyback clause in the event we didn't.
I'm sure there would be an orderly queue of companies wanting to buy us out post-deal in any case so we may not even get to that point.

If it was a gold mine plenty would be all over it I assume. Iron ore isn’t as exciting to the speculators.
Speaking of which there is gold in the hills. Have a look at the Tucano Mine next door, might be a possibility.

As far as the deal, it seems highly likely to complete soon.
What are the possible outcomes:
1. deal gets done, we take our 20/27% - highly likely (>85%)
2. Banks made unsecured creditors, we take our 20/27% - unlikely but plausible (<10%)
3. Some unknown event where we don’t end up taking ownership. - highly unlikely(<5%)

Serveporto team still hard at work
https://www.facebook.com/Serveporto/posts/2286936114774832

For those unsure I think it's worth a re-listen to the recent vox podcast linked on the Cadence homepage:
https://audioboom.com/posts/7862136-kiran-morzaria-ceo-of-cadence-minerals-discusses-their-2nd-iron-ore-shipment-an-operational-upd
And also the tweet on the same day "Close to bank creditor settlement":
https://twitter.com/CadenceMinerals/status/1391647029886078979

In KM's defence from looking at the Courts, the "all aligned" statement was made after the April amendment to the deal with the Banks.
- "the addendum of 02.04.2021"
We know for sure that one bank has signed. We also think that the banks may be due in court on Monday (Manifest the Union of Banks in 10 days.).
We also know that our fourth vessel is due to leave on Monday.
If I was KM I would think it would be prudent to give an update (and interviews) on Tuesday 8th confirming the situation regarding the deal and shipments.

Haven't gone all in you mean @fjones40?
This is my largest position by far (now over a third due to gains) but it's for each to decide their own risk reward tolerances.
If I see cast iron confirmation of the deal before the market does Mike will be going Oooooh when he spots my trades.
Like Obs I have more than my fair share that I will be very very happy with the returns (life changing amounts) if and when what we predict will happen does happen.