Member Info for EV_Bull

Market price is one thing and underlying value is another. Clearly mining and mining investments have not fared well recently.

I will wait for Amapa value to be realised before determining the success or otherwise of the investment strategy and not the current share price.

e.g:

Amapá stake worth more than Cadence

Our risk-adjusted (for its stage of development) valuation of the 5.2Mtpa Amapá iron ore project in Brazil is US$154m/£122m (Cadence share £37m, or 21p/share). This is based on an unrisked valuation US$978m (NPV, 100% basis, 10% discount rate). This project, of which Cadence own 30%, is at pre-feasibility study (PFS) stage, but importantly is potentially a brownfield refurbishment and restart rather than a greenfield iron ore mine. Our valuation is similar to the PFS NPV10 of US$932m and allows for significant capital reconstruction and refurbishment. Cadence has multiple paths to creating additional value at Amapá by continuing to build its stake (it has first right of refusal up to 49%) and continuing to de-risk towards full bankable feasibility study (BFS) status, which should be relatively straightforward given its history as an operating mine.

https://www.edisongroup.com/research/a-mispriced-miner/32481/

Easy to be an armchair expert and blame management for everything but not many foresaw the lithium price declining like it has, Mexican nationalisation, massive inflation, higher interest rates, stubborn banks etc, huge UK market outflows and all of that has in turn affected all junior mining equities, I can't name many junior miners that are up over the past year.

Sure with hindsight some things could have been done better (selling EMH at the peak would have been nice) but as things stand we have a solid asset there in Amapa and our holding is in my view worth multiples of the current SP, it would be nice to see that valuation realised in short order.

Disappointing that the commodity prices have declined but these things are cyclical and the cure for low prices is low prices as most mines are unsustainable at this price esp the lepidolite producers in China. High interest rates and inflation reduce affordability for new cars. Once these things subside one would expect a healthy rebound.

I'm saying, get the licenses and then sell (some or all) may be an option management are considering given where we are trading. Say our ~33% is worth something like the £50m-£100m range post licenses but pre DFS then that's obviously got to be considered vs the alternative (more risky) route of us funding the DFS with a loan.

Dropping down to say 10-15% ownership and having £30m in cash in return looks an attractive option at the moment vs another year to DFS and then construction.... see HZM for why!

The reason I say that the DFS is not as big of a deal for a sale is this was operating very profitably in the Anglo days, no reason it can't do so again.

I don't think the DFS is the be all and end all as far as a sale goes, the licensing is the main value add Cadence can achieve short term. I disagree with this: "No-one would buy it pre DFS."

There is $8m of untapped funds for the DFS

It seems to me like they are going to be doing it

@Dallasdaz http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428232513600167

Development Programme

Under the MOU, TCIDR will provide a final proposal to complete the Definitive Feasibility Study ("DFS"), and on completion of a successful DFS, will submit a fixed price Engineering Procurement and Construction ("EPC") contract for the Amapá Project. The DFS, EPC contact and any other services provided by TCIDR are subject to both the services being provided on a competitive basis and to PBA's and DEV's commercial evaluation and approval. TCIDR will be appointed the General EPC contractor for the Amapá Project once these approvals have been granted and the provision of TCIDR-facilitated project financing is secured. This will require the execution of legally binding documents.

Some of Geralds ore is at the port, it's the higher grade stuff.

IMO a Chinese company with deep pockets will buy the mine from us and pay off the banks. Hence why the DFS is also being done by a Chinese company and the financing is coming from China. Iron Ore has been strong too.

So that is 1.28% being 1,653,051m shares vs 2,452,650m but "Data supplied by Morningstar and accurate on Sep 7, 2023." this also the same data that IBKR reports so perhaps a bit more sold between then and now.

Haha... well spotted...

add them together

Cadence Minerals Plc(i) Shares: 835,501 Capital: 0.65%

Cadence Minerals Plc(ii) 817,550 0.63%

We are listed here as selling down further... Cadence Minerals Plc(i) Shares: 835,501 Capital: 0.65%

https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/has

Yes, it's a non-core holding as was indicated last year so gradually selling out to cover loan repayments / costs. Better than a cap raise.

1.4% of 129m shares outstanding would imply 0.5% ownership was sold last year as otherwise would be 1.9%

.....

Ah, I didn't spot this at the time.... looks like some 650k shares were sold around the $1 mark last year.

04 August 2023:

Cadence shareholding in Hastings

On 25 January 2023, Cadence completed the sale of its 30% stake in several mineral concessions forming part of the Yangibana Rare Earths project for a consideration of 2.45 million Hastings shares, equating to approximately 1.9% Hastings issued share capital. This consideration was a premium over the Net Present Value ("NPV") of the Cadence portion of the mineable material, based on the definitive feasibility ("DFS") updated by Hastings on 21 February 2022.

12 September 2023:

Cadence shareholding in Hastings

On 25 January 2023, Cadence completed the sale of its 30% stake in several mineral concessions forming part of the Yangibana Rare Earths project for a consideration of 2.45 million Hastings shares. This consideration was a premium over the Net Present Value ("NPV") of the Cadence portion of the mineable material, based on the definitive feasibility ("DFS") updated by Hastings on 21 February 2022. Currently Cadence holds approximately 1.4% of Hastings issued share capital.

If still held would be worth £890k

Since they own the majority of the project, yes.

You can get no win no fee style legal financing otherwise it's in Ganfeng's interest to support our case.

Forgetting the other assets even if we sold our 33% stake for what we paid to add the extra which is $1.1m per 1% you have $36m which is £28.5m and roughly a treble from today's price. Obviously it should fetch a heck of a lot more than that once licenses are in place.

Interesting Jimb2 an amparo being a proceeding for relief against violation of constitutional rights.

The whole situation is nuts, that it's come to this but let's hope sanity prevails.