Member Info for Eureka01

The Greater Manchester Innovation Plan was published in November 2022. On page 8 this reference to genomics:
" We are seeking investment and policy support from government to
strengthen R&D assets and industry collaboration in areas where we
have distinctive assets (genomic technologies, diagnostics, digital
health, and advanced therapies) to drive new industry clusters. We also
seek investment and policy support to exploit overspill from our assets
in advanced materials and AI, digital and advanced computing."
https://gmlep.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/IGM-Exec-Summary-Nov-22.pdf
But great news for confirmation of the funding and certainly more meat added to the bones. If GDR has been selected I would certainly expect an RNS as soon as it is confirmed.

Pre trade, the bid/ask is set at 35/37. Looks promising.

MMs are playing games today. I tried a dummy buy of 100 and they wouldn't take it but happy to take a sell of 10000 + at 28.3851 (transactions at that price are showing as buys but are in fact sells). Conclusion: there's a big buy order waiting in the background!

With all the anticipation of another fund raise I thought it would be useful to look at the previous two fundraises.
5/5/20 Placing at 80p. This was badly mishandled. An RNS had come out at 4pm the day before announcing the WHO prequalification for GDR's HCV-ID test. The announcement came out at 4pm and the sp rocketed to 198p. The next day it continued to rocket to £3 before the announcement of a placing at 80p, a discount of 60% on the previous day's close, at 8.33am. The sp collapsed and over the next couple of months went down to 66p before finally staging a recovery. I did contact the company at the time and was told that the management team and their advisors had been working on the placing announcement all night and only finally had it ready for the late announcement the next morning. I queried why they hadn't pulled the placing in view of the WHO announcement and the subsequent elevated share price but was told that it would have meant negotiating the placing all over again. I guess they were working on the principle of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
10/9/21 Placing and Open Offer at 25p. This was a discount of 40.1% on the previous day's closing price of 42p. This caused the sp initially to collapse to 35p and to continue down for the next two and a half months to 17.5p before rallying again up to 70p by December 9th.
FWIW, this time round my guess would be a fund raise, if it is to be by placing/open offer, following significant good news, so after one or more of the following:
1)Announcement of full accreditation for AIHL by NICE following the completion of the consultation on March 30th.
2)Launch of the stroke test in the UK.
3)Announcement of the the move forward with the FDA following the pre-submission.

MisterPositive, you do like to ramp this share don't you. On Tuesday you were saying " Flash headline from NICE tomorrow". It didn't happen. Now you're saying "FDA update any day now." I've already explained that we will only get an update if or when the company makes the formal decision to apply for approval which is likely to be some time away and is dependent on funding and FDA requirements. Comparing the price with 2013 is ridiculous. We've had multiple fund raises since then diluting the share price massively!

Lloyd, Sorry I don't copy and paste other people's emails, nor do I reveal my sources. Sharing non price sensitive information is one thing, publishing other people's correspondence on a public forum is another.

I'm not asking anyone to believe me, just see what transpires! The first test will be tomorrow or the day after following on from the end of the public consultation. The doubters will be expecting an RNS, I'm saying it won't happen!

Fair enough...just see what happens over the coming days and weeks I do not put myself in the same class as that certain other person you're referring to.

Through a company spokesperson. I guess it's not considered price sensitive information as it doesn't tell us HOW the talks are going.

I previously thought, like most here, that we might look forward to a couple of announcements this week. However, I've now had some clarification on the subject of GDR's announcements.
1)FDA Pre Application Submission
I understand that the Company is not planning to make an announcement about the FDA pre submission discussions. It looks like we'll only see an announcement if or when the Company takes the formal decision to apply for approval which in itself will depend on a number of factors such as cost and FDA requirements. I gather that the talks are ongoing and that no decision or conclusion has yet been reached.
2)NICE
A Company announcement would mirror an announcement from NICE and no announcement is expected from them before the 30th March. Hence it seems that we won't be seeing an announcement at the end of the public consultation tomorrow.

Just to clarify, the last pronouncement on the FDA pre submission for MT-RNR1 (AIHL test kit) was made at the Investor Meet Company presentation on the 21st November. We were told then that there would be feedback in January or EARLY February so we are already overdue. I would expect an announcement early next week.

*31st October 2022!

The sp is taking a bit of a breather after its meteoric rise after the last several weeks. Where will we go from here? There will be a lot of news flow to potentially boost the sp in the next 3 months.

AIHL Kit
Additional distribution partners.
Additional go live sites in the UK.
Completion of public consultation 21st February.
Publication of NICE report 30th March.
Launch of the kit in other European countries.

Stroke Test Kit
Launch of the stroke test kit in the UK.

Beyond that time frame there should be more news:
Second NICE review for the stroke test kit.
Launch of the stroke test in other territories.
Beginning of the FDA regulatory process for AIHL kit assuming positive pre submission process and funding.

The elephant in the room?
As at 31st October 2023 there was £3million in the bank. Cash burn is £400k per month, so by May additional funds will be needed. The company is looking at non dilutive ways of funding but the possibility of a placing may act as a brake on the sp.
But all in all I remain positive about the company prospects and continue to hold.

PJ, Then please explain why LSE has added the rarely used symbol under DB's name indicating "Verified Member".

Just to add to that, I remember that after the first post from DB in 2020 someone contacted LSE and they confirmed the post was genuine.

Genedrive still top of the leader board:
1 GDR Genedrive Plc 34.25 37.0% 9.25

genedrive plc (AIM:GDR), the point of care molecular diagnostics company, announces that the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has preliminarily recommended that the Genedrive® MT-RNR1 ID Kit can be used by the NHS following the evidence review as part of their Early Value Assessment (EVA) Programme1.

A reminder that GDR is not a one trick pony.
From a study published in July 2022 for POC testing of hepatitis C:
"....The trial was carried out by Tayside Clinical Trials Unit, in collaboration with the Burnet Institute Melbourne and Public Health Wales. It was funded by AbbVie, who also provided medication for the trial, with support from Genedrive PLC, who supplied the point-of-care diagnostic devices."
https://www.dundee.ac.uk/stories/community-testing-and-treatment-key-global-hep-c-elimination-efforts

It looks like MMs are trying to fill a big order. Although the sells far outweigh the buys, the sp has ticked up 7%.

Nice to see the sp continuing northwards. On another website I came across what is IMO an excellent assessment of GDR and its future potential, posted by Indomie 1.

"As others have said this rise really feels like it is due to a long awaited re-rate as stock was heavily oversold on little or no news. I'm not sure the market appreciated the significance of the NICE decision to prioritise the assessment of GDRs two pharmacogenomic tests either before xmas.
It has always been a difficult share to judge as it wasn't clear with the pandemic whether GDRs strategy - which relies on healthcare systems around the world prioritising genomics to help manage demand, reduce costs and improve patient outcomes - would be adopted. IMO it is now starting to look like with the extra pressures on health systems following the pandemic, that genomics WILL be a big winner in terms of new research, innovation and products.
GDR has been ahead of others in this market. The decision by the company to pivot to using their technology to try to help during the pandemic, has helped to fund upgrades to their diagnostic platforms, and now the delays in regulatory approval caused by the pandemic only seem to have accelerated interest in pharmacogenomic testing in a way that was probably not envisaged pre-pandemic.
There are still very real ethical issues to work through with areas like genomic sequencing, but if health care providers are working towards the adoption of that technology, then they need widespread adoption/acceptance of the sort of tests GDR are now bringing to market which do not have as significant ethical issues.
As others have said, do your own research here. Some may not believe pharmacogencomic testing will take off, others can see a real patient need and GDR as a 200-300m market cap business in a reasonable timeframe.
GDR have never provided any detailed breakdown on the global market for their AIHL test, other than saying it is in excess of 100m in annual sales - the focus was initially on UK, Europe and USA but now with entry to the Middle East market, there are clear signs the company is seeing interest further afield too. The stroke test has even bigger potential uses, and the reputation and experience GDR have built up have positioned the firm well. Some things are outside of their control - national NHS commissioning of the AIHL test would transform this company and any valuations - but that decision is outside of GDRs control. In the meantime, they are focusing on getting a NICE recommendation which will help take up with all the trusts they are currently in discussions. The company is also due to update on their strategy to enter the US/North American market, and launch its stroke test, so lots of news still to come in 2023!"