Member Info for Eureka01

Good to see the sp ticking up today. With the interims imminent, investors will be hoping for good news. The dampener on the sp has, of course, been the fear of another dilutive fund raise. Some weeks ago I set out why, if there were a dilutive fund raise, I thought it would be later rather than sooner:

1)Existing cash: As of 21/11/24 there was £3 million in the bank. 2) £500k grant for AIHL 3)Tax rebate of £700k due early 2025. 4)Sales: in the year ending June 2024 they amounted to some £500k. I thought it was safe to assume that they would be somewhat higher for the current year. That has been reinforced by the news of the Scottish rollout as well as the take up of the stroke test by Peterborough Hospital. There will be additional income from the existing neonatal intensive care units. as well as new income from the 5 new intensive care units coming on line for the current year. So let's take a conservative figure of £800k coming in from November to June. That would give a possible total of £5m coming in up to the end of June. The outgoings are in the region of £500k per month. So from 20/11/24 to the end of June 2025 approximately £3.7m expenditure, leaving a balance of £1.3 million in the bank. So there would be a need for a fund raise by late summer.

I'll now look further at the case why a dilutive fund rate may not be needed at all, something that James Cheek seemed confident about when I spoke to him last year. The following are possibilities:

1)The US partner helps out with the FDA application for AIHL.

2)Some other strategic partnership helps support the company until it breaks even.

3)Many additional intensive care units in the UK come on board. Specialist commissioning for AIHL could open the floodgates.

4)Many more hospitals follow the lead of Peterborough in taking up the stroke test.

5)Income from the tests in Europe and the Middle East take off more than anticipated.

6)Now that the company is on a much firmer footing and that there will be recurring revenue from contracts in place, it should make it much easier to get a loan on commercial terms through the likes of Scottish Enterprise or one of the big banks. One thing's for sure, we should never have to go to the likes of Riverfort for a death spiral financing package again!

So there we have it. I'm not ruling out dilutive funding but I think it is now less likely. Hopefully the interims will shed some light on that. In last year's final results we were told that the company " continues to actively seek non-dilutive funding."

AIMHO

Looks like GDR is still looking for a senior products engineer. The position, previously advertised a few weeks ago, was placed on a new job board yesterday.

Amongst the responsibilities:

Lead compliance approvals for FCC, EMC, CE, UKCA, CB Scheme, FDA

And this:

Expertise in IVD/medical device compliance (EU & USA)

Gino was asked in the IMC presentation in December if the head count had increased due to increased work load and he confirmed that was the case.

The signs look promising.

https://cancano.co.uk/jobs/senior-product-engineer-manchester/1605160476-2/

Stocksaint, I did find it strange that no mention of specialist commissioning was made in the final results in November yet in the IMC presentation i a few days later Gino seemed confident that it would happen by April. So was he lying?

The company has made reference to specialist commissioning for AIHL at various times.

"Specialist commissioning would see the test funded effectively at a national level, through the regional Integrated Care Systems (ICS). This process takes time in an underfunded NHS despite the very positive health economic case the Genedrive MT-RNR1 ID test provides. In the interim, each hospital needs to make its own business case to secure the necessary funding for the capital equipment and tests." Annual report 2023

James Cheek spoke about the specialist commissioning of the MTRNR1 Test in the Investor Meet Company presentation in November 2023: "100% clarity its happening" and added that he had "been speaking to key people, such as Sue Hill and Alex McLoughlin", and he felt that there was "an acceptance sooner rather than later that Specialist Commissioning' would occur."

"We continue to pursue all avenues to ensure we achieve specialist commissioning before the current timescale of April 2025. In line with specialist commissioning being devolved to the Integrated Care Boards. Interims 2024

The latest reference to national commissioning was indeed in an answer to a question asking whether it would happen by April 2025 in the IMC, December 2024. Gino Miele responded, "We remain confident of that." .

Not quite sure if I follow the logic of corporates shaking out the share holders for peanuts. As the investors in the company at present are private share holders it would be up to them to decide, guided by the board who would be duty bound to advise if it was a fair offer or not. I, for one, would not be taking up a low ball offer.

Correction...50 times its present market cap, valuing the share at £500 million. Too early in the morning!

100 times its present value? This would value the company at a billion. I think that's a little bit over the top. But nice to fantasize.🙂

"... The deployment of these programs is expected to enhance the company’s market positioning and encourage similar approaches across the UK, potentially reducing healthcare inequalities."

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/scottish-government-invests-in-genedrives-pharmacogenetic-testing-for-nhs-scotland

"The announcement marks a step forward in the strategic implementation of pharmacogenetic testing at a national level in NHS Scotland, with the potential to significantly improve patient outcomes. Genedrive’s involvement in these programs positions the company at the forefront of near-patient pharmacogenetic testing innovation.

This move by the Scottish Government...reflects the growing trend in healthcare towards prevention and the use of rapid, decentralized diagnostics."

https://uk.investing.com/news/company-news/scotland-advances-genetic-testing-in-healthcare-93CH-3982054

A month ago I posted why I had topped up at the 2p level. I said then that I believed the downside would be limited. Amongst the reasons for my thinking was the pipeline of news ahead. So now the ball has started rolling: Peterborough and the Scottish rollout. Initially I was disappointed with the amounts involved and the market seemed to feel the same, but upon reflection I now see the two events as giving the boost not only to other hospitals and trusts in England and Wales to follow suit but perhaps also to the EU and beyond,

The interims are due in a couple of weeks time. Hopefully we shall see more good news then.

Great find Lionel. I wonder, however, if this was the reason for sp drop on Friday: "Building on a successful trial in NHS Tayside, patients who have had a stroke will receive a lab-based genetic test to identify if they are one of the 30% of people have a genetic variation that means they do not respond to a drug commonly prescribed to reduce the risk of a secondary stroke." The income from the stroke testing would have far outweighed the relatively small income from the hearing loss test.

Yes, POC testing for stroke in Scotland may come, but it was the lab testing that was highlighted in the document on Thursday..

Of course you conveniently forget:

1)The existing cash: As of 21/11/24 there was £3 million in the bank.

2) £500k grant for AIHL.

3)Tax rebate of £700k due early 2025.

4)Income could be rather more than a million with multiple rollouts and new sites hopefully coming.

Fwiw, Zak Mir:

"genedrive (GDR), the point of care pharmacogenetic testing company, announce that the Genedrive® CYP2C19-ID Kit has been implemented into the Hyperacute and Acute Stroke Units of Peterborough City Hospital Acute Stroke Centre for routine clinical use. Hyperacute Stroke units and Acute Stroke Units are part of the UK’s Integrated Stroke Delivery Network, where care typically covers the first 72 hours after admission.

Comment: Given how long it take to get seen in A&E and then get a bed, the 72 hours covered here sounds ideal. We also see how GDR is finally making the real world progress its shareholders have been waiting on."

https://www.share-talk.com/rns-hotlist-with-zak-mir-scgl-thr-he1-all-rmr-eee-roq-gdr/

This follows on from the announcement in August for the order at the Manchester Stroke Centre.

"An initial order for the CYP2C19-ID Kit and instruments has been received (c.£0.1M) to support an implementation assessment at Greater Manchester's Comprehensive Stroke Centre ("CSC")."

So that was for an assessment but this is for routine use, as Jimi has pointed out. A big step forward.

The key part:

" Effective clinical management of neurologic stroke relies in part on optimising the efficacy of anti-platelets prescribed, and within a timeframe that is served only by rapid genetic testing technologies such as this. The implementation will help us to formulate a personalised optimal treatment plan for our stroke patients, that we hope will prevent future strokes and save lives."

Note the emphasis on faster tests:

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, NHS National Medical Director said: “Delivering more tests and checks faster is a vital part of efforts to cut waiting lists, and it is hugely significant that thanks to the hard work of staff and the rollout of community diagnostic centres, the average time waiting for tests has fallen to just 17 days – the quickest in almost 5 years.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/03/nhs-slashes-tests-and-checks-waits-to-5-year-low/

News just in the Trump has doubled metal tariffs on Canada. The Dow is down more than 500 points, the FTSE down more than 100 points. Difficult times.

Three times in the last two weeks the share price tried to get through the 2.05p barrier and failed. Yesterday, on the fourth occasion, it succeeded....and that without news and in negative markets. Nissan highlighted the British Bull recommendation...now a buy after 46 days of recommending going short. They state: "The bulls have compelling evidence supporting their stance, prompting us to consider placing a bullish bet. Today’s candlestick has a white body and its close is above the confirmation level. The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated. Now may be the opportune moment to join this upswing and capitalize on the bullish market sentiment. The market is signalling a potential new profit opportunity."

So will it hold? The market, with Donald Trump's flip flops on tariffs, is very volatile at present but with plenty of news on the horizon the hope is there. Time will tell.

From the final results:

"Likewise, full recommendation of our CYP2C19 ID kit and the need for interventional CYP2C19 genotyping in ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack by NICE and positive value assessment by the Scottish Health Technology Group,"

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/genedrive/news/rns/story/xzgk17w

Yes, there is the move towards POC testing for CYP2c19 in Scotland and a reminder that the POC test for AIHL is also in the frame: "Proposed PGx testing also includes point of care (POC) testing in NHS Scotland hospital wards (e.g. a neonatal POC test to identify and remove the risk of permanent hearing loss for babies from gentamicin (antibiotic) induced toxicity."

https://www.nes.scot.nhs.uk/media/4ixpfpvw/7-matthew-beaney-the-rise-of-clinical-pharmacogenomics.pdf