Member Info for esduk

Sorry it didn’t like my use of the word f@g, so it changed my post to lower case…

grantley, i did some updated songwe dfs calcs early last summer based on updated re pricing and the heavy rare earths went from being a small to a substantial part of the mine’s revenue, though obviously mine were back of the *** packet. prices of both light and heavies have increased since then. the updated numbers that will be filed with the sec should give us a clearer picture.

i still think the recycling is where the main long term value is at, but we have a value crystallisation event in the near term with the spac listing, so that listing value will continue to be the main driver of the sp for the next few months. a fully permitted mine, supported by an eu based refining plant, both heavily supported by us and eu is nothing to sniff at!

Speedy, from my readings on the topic, if a trader asks for physical delivery upon settlement of their futures contract, Comex are within their rights to cash settle without being in default. The problem with Comex choosing to cash settle would be that the cat would then be out of the proverbial bag, and everyone (who doesn't already) would realise that Comex is a bit of a house of cards.

If confidence is lost and more and more traders ask for physical settlement, inventories are drained (unless replenished by buying physical silver at higher prices, which further drives up the spot price) until they have to move to wholesale cash settlement, at which point it is clear to everyone that this is a distorted / unreliable market and anyone who actually cares about physical ownership / delivery moves off Comex entirely. Andrew Maguire has presented lots of great analysis on this, which shows that many users of physical silver have already moved away from using Comex (many users are even signing bilateral deals with silver miners) and that any move to cash settlement will just exacerbate this further.

Comex can run like it has done because the vast majority of the contracts are never settled through physical delivery. This is unproblematic when the metal is in abundant supply, both through surplus production and massive above ground inventories. When supply becomes tight, due to five years of supply deficits, and there is a precious metals bull run in which silver's dual purpose as a monetary metal starts shining, investors want to make sure that the physical is really there. If there is a loss in confidence of Comex to settle through physical delivery, this is a big problem and there is the potential that this could unravel. It's similar to fractional reserve banking, if there is a complete loss of confidence in a bank, there is a run on that bank, and without outside intervention the bank does not have the ability to make whole its depositors.

Congratulations W.O.S, always good to hear about people putting multi bagger profits to use in the real world, that should never cause any regret imo. Glad you maintained a decent wedge though and make sure to keep posting, as your contributions are very much appreciated.

We’ve obviously had a decent chunk of selling in the last two months, which was natural after such a massive rise, the RE sentiment spike and the shift back in short term catalysts like the SPAC. People will all have their own motivations and your case shows that some/many of these will not be related to a loss of faith in the business case here, but other things like life circumstances. Luckily for me my Mkango investment is all through my/my wife’s ISA and SIPP and there is no other call on that money for the foreseeable future. I remain very confident and patient, and have filtered in some silver miner profits as we have drifted lower.

Happy New Year All, I think we can all agree (ok maybe not strangler) that 2026 is likely to be an absolutely stellar year for Mkango, where we truly become an established operator and major player in the rare earths market.

More background dealing, with the bid dropping 2p on no meaningful reported trades (over 2k). Should expect a few sizeable delayed reported sells to turn up post close. The new normal, at least for the time being while we wait for news.

I'm looking forward to Andrew Maguire's next YouTube video and analysis of what happened overnight Sunday/Monday in silver, should be fascinating.

The media coverage is also garbage. The idea they have been trumpeting that the crash was due to retail taking profits is ridiculous. The crash happened in the middle of the night, when both European and US investors were asleep. Just shows you how wide of the mark the media are on precious metals and the actual cause of the bull market.

Agree Element, I've got a lot invested in silver miners and have been following this all very closely. Lots of propaganda on both sides as you say and while "Asian Guy" (the new silver AI YouTuber) does include plenty of truthful info, a lot of the rest of his content is garbage. There were two big calls on the US repo market on Friday and Monday, totalling c.$50bn. The speculation is that these relate to a bank(s) being in trouble with their silver positions.

The price action has been ridiculous, I watched the crash live overnight Sunday/Monday and also note that each time China opens at 2am the price goes up as you get sustained buying. Two markets, physical vs paper, East vs West, in a tug of war. Charles' Archer's bog on this from a few days ago is a great source of more reliable information. We are in crazy times and there is a lot of money to be made, but also a lot of risk.

Agree GLR, a treble from here should be eminently doable, even without everything going perfectly. If we get the SPAC away, serious revenues from Tyseley and Germany, and FID on first Hypromag USA plant, £1.50 is pretty conservative imo, particularly given all other the other news items that could drop.

Bid was 45p for first hour or so, it’s now 47p, so I’d say the buying did have an impact…

Your commentary on here is pretty inane and pointless. We all know what news we are expecting in Q1. No one is predicting a big rise in the SP without it.

Sorry I meant commissioning of German plant next month, not this month!

Large amount of buying volume seems to have shown up in the last 30 minutes. As per my comment last week, on thinly traded days this can move the SP quickly. Last week it was downwards, today could be the opposite.

Next news expected to be German commissioning this month or filing of Pulaway and Songwe studies with SEC. Following that a date for SPAC and decision to proceed on Hypromag USA. A lot of other stuff could drop at anytime e.g. government grants/financing or Japan JV.

Hope everyone had a good break. Good to see Neodymium up nearly 3% again today and pushing back towards recent highs. Last Wednesday’s UT making us look like we are down but we’re actually currently up for the day.

A 24k UT at 48.8p, so we’ll look like we’re down on next Monday’s open. I will have more money ready by then. Off for a crisp Christmas Eve walk.

Well said SG, been a pleasure sharing the daily ups and downs (mainly ups) here with you over the last year. Have a great break!

Sold something else (before I wanted to) to get a top up in before 12.30 close. Drop completely overdone. Looking forward to a better start to 2026…

Plenty of buys in there violindog, including a 60k. I was just saying that it is easy to get big price changes in thin trading if there is a bit of an imbalance between buyers and sellers.

4% down on thin volume of under 250k. Always a risk that this happens on days like this where most have switched off. A seller or two can drive the price. Frustrating, but I’m ultra bullish for next quarter and next year in general, so some silver profits will be going in here Monday morning (need to wait for Canadian markets to open first).

Was waiting for that... they knock her down just before close, same old game here....

Looks like lots of big delayed trades in the background today, both buys and sells.

And in other news, spot Gold is less than $10 away from $4,500.

Element, I follow Michael Oliver very closely and he has absolutely nailed his predications this year and made me a lot of money on silver/silver shares. His spread analysis for Gold/S&P and Gold/Silver and the associated breakouts has been spot on.