Member Info for esduk

Great points velcro. Agree that we are at the beginning, not the end, of this rare earths cycle, which is linked to the wider commodity super cycle. Very little of the required new supply is coming online in the near future. China is keeping more of its rare earths for itself, for both industrial and strategic reasons. Demand in the rest of the world is increasing at a high CAGR (look at Adamas' work on this). There may come a time in 5+ years time where the supply/demand equalises, but it is certainly not any time soon.

Clearly no-one wanted to sell 100k to them at 52p, I wonder why..? Time to pay up Mr 100k!

100k on the bid again for the 11am auction, currently sat at 52p. This player is patient, and really focussed on minimising their entry price.

With this news, I have decided to make this share a substantial part of my portfolio (it had been a relatively small holding). I'll be buying on dips and as funds come free from silver / gold miner profits. This is a buy and hold for the next 3-5 years, as Mr Rule likes to say. I can see it contributing substantially to my retirement.

Thanks for posting the research note Andii. It aligns with my thinking yesterday that there is a double effect here. The first is on the project economics, which I think will be very positive. The second, and perhaps more important, on the likelihood and timeframe for this mine getting built. There is just no way that Japan and / or the US are not going to get this fast tracked. That removes a lot of country / permitting risk here. Bonker and I are invested in Mkango and had a very painful wait for the MDA to arrive back in 2022. With the US and Japan leverage, the Malawian government will not drag their feet on permitting here.

Yes biffa, that 100k has been present on the bid at all the auctions (9am, 11am, 2pm, 4.30pm) this week. They are trying their best not to increase the price by using the auctions to match with sellers, rather than buying the normal way. Smells to me like an institution on HNW investor slowly accumulating. It's also put a floor under the current SP.

There has been a large seller(s) about for the last month or so, but this 100k buyer might be tapping them out. If they do / have, which might be supported by the lack of available shares / NT then this should move up quickly with any decent buying pressure.

Yeh was just about to write that SG, it was filled in the 9am auction.

Will filter the strangler Myles, thanks.

The Canadian issued shares, not the UK shares. It’s pretty clear. If you have questions I suggest you ask the company.

I’ve already answered the point on the TSX-V “lock-in”, but that has been ignored. Basically it’s a non-issue. It only applies to shares issued through the TSX-V, which will have been minimal, if any. It doesn’t apply to the placing shares issued through AIM, which will be the large majority, and we saw many of these being forward sold prior to the placing as we moved down from low 40’s to low 30’s in advance of the 30p placing.

Your numbers also don't take into account Neodymium and Praseodymium, which at 21.8% of the total concentrate, should bring in a decent wedge too.

*MREC

Now that is a very good / comprehensive job by you and AI. Thanks.

I would suggest that the net realised value % is too low. If you look at Mkango's DFS for Songwe, you will see a 27% discount applied to take account of the fact that they were producing Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREX), not separated rare earth oxides. Transport and other costs were considered in the study as a standalone item, rather than being included in pricing discount, so perhaps a discount of c.35-40% would be fairer? That would make your numbers considerably better.

It sounds like you know your onions velcro, so sounds sensible to me. My own experience of EIB, many moons ago, was that they are competent and well priced, but quite slow and involve quite a bit of extra admin on top of what the commercial lenders did. So sounds like KUKE would be better the option. But regardless, we will have no issues getting financed.

Velcro, it will be Polish administered funds, but imo likely coming from the EU funding pot. This was the case in both Portugal and Czechia for their CRMA Strategic Status projects. The CRMA Special Project status also fast tracks permitting, I think it was max 12 months for refining projects / 18 months for mines (from memory).

Completely agree, if backed up by further drilling and evidence, this makes us top two heavy rare earth producers in the world, in addition to top two titanium and graphite. That is just crazy and none of us own enough of this share. The other mine, which has yet to be developed, is in Greenland, where the mining season, climate and costs are much less favourable.

Make no mistake, this find is an absolute game changer and I have topped up a few times already. We will make billions from it in time if the numbers are backed up.

I think you are joining dots that aren't there and extrapolating things without the detailed knowledge and data to do so. As I said, the total annual heavy RE market is currently $1.6-$2bn. So that should tell you that your figures are not correct.

They are not grab samples from ore, I am heavily invested in RE projects and I can tell you for sure that they don't have 2.9% combined Dysprosium and Terbium just lying around in ore. The below from the RNS states that the % relate to the monazite concentrate, which has already been processed.

Preliminary analysis has confirmed the monazite concentrate contains exceptional heavy rare earth content averaging 2.9% (and up to 3.9%) combined DyTb and averaging 11.9% (and up to 17.3%) yttrium, and light rare earth content including 21.8% neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr).

Either way, I think this speeds things up here. Either a major buys us or the US government puts a rocket under us. They need heavy rare earths, and they need them now.

Forget Greenland, Kasiya has comparable levels of heavy rare earths to the Tanbreez there, and it's nice and warm in Malawi, all year round. It's a US friendly jurisdiction. This is game changing news for the company, but also game changing news from a geopolitical perspective.

There is a heavy focus on Japan as well in the RNS, and maybe it's a Japanese major who is best placed to buy us out / partner with us.

According to AI, the overall market value for HREE is approximately $1.6-2bn per annum, though it is set to grow substantially in future. So I don't think annual revenue in the billions and trillions makes any sense.

I don't think you can use the 24mt of ore figure as the input for your calcs. The rare earths were taken from the tailings and therefore the figure should be much lower. I don't think we have the info to work this out yet based on the RNS. Needless to say, it will be massively profitable for the company, but not as profitable as your figures suggest.

That 100k is still sitting on the bid at 52p in the 11am auction. This should provide good support. Someone big is clearly looking to get in, and they don't appear to be in a hurry.

Some big money moving in with these delayed reported trades. Encouraging. Looks like 41p will go soon.