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The H1 trading update from Diales makes for encouraging reading. Strong momentum within its core markets in Q2 has continued into Q3, which means unchanged consensus estimates for adj. PBT/adj. EPS.

The shares look well underpinned by net cash which accounts for 29% of the current market capitalisation. Equity Dev sees fair value per share of 35p, based on a peer group comparison model, utilising a conservative 25% rating discount – as you can read in new note here:

https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/momentum-in-core-markets-valuation-compelling

New research today from Equity Development today: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/trading-update-fy25-ebitda-marginally-ahead

In a Trading Update for the year to 31st March 2025, Eco Animal Health reports that, due to strong trading in the final quarter, (adj.) EBITDA for the year is expected to be marginally ahead of expectations. FY25 revenue is expected to be c.7.0% below market expectations (-5% on a currency-adjusted basis), indicating revenue of c.£79.4m; the Group references market consensus FY25 (adj.) EBITDA of £7.2m (ED Est: £7.2m) and revenue of £85.3m (ED Est £84.2m). The improvement in EBITDA is driven by gross profitability above 45.0% (FY24: 42.1%) and control of overhead costs.

Overall, the Group envisages that this level of gross profitability is sustainable (on a constant currency basis) and has made no changes to its outlook for FY26 and FY27. This is a validation of Group efforts to address operational processes and control costs in the face of what is described as “currency headwinds and geopolitical and economic uncertainty”.

Backed by the level of cash generation indicated, and as outlined in detail at the recent Group R&D Day (March 13th), Eco is committed to maintaining investment in the pipeline of major new products under development. We note the significance of the European Market Authorisation Application (MAA) for ECOVAXXIN®MS, Mycoplasma synoviae submitted on 3rd March (‘Milestone poultry vaccine submission’) as evidence of the defined pathway to commercialisation for the first of nine flagship products under development.

For reference, FY25 company (adj.) EBITDA guidance is in line with ED estimates; our prior estimates are shown below. Our Fair Value remains 97p – 102p pending further review of the product pipeline detailed in the recent R&D Day.

"Strong trading shows benefit of diversified portfolio" - new research out this morning, freely accessible here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/strong-trading-shows-benefit-of-diversified-portfolio

In a Trading Update for the year to 31st March 2025, Supreme reports that the Group traded strongly, supported by acquisitions and underpinned by cost management. Supreme expects FY25 revenue of c.£235.0m and (adj.) EBITDA of “at least” £40.0m; they also expect FY26 (adj.) EBITDA in line with market expectations.

Supreme notes development of a number of new sales opportunities following from the acquisition of Clearly Drinks (June 2024), accessing the soft drinks sector, and Typhoo Tea (December 2024), enabling entry into the market for hot beverages. Having spent £25.0m on acquisitions during the period, the Group notes that it ended the year net cash positive (pre-IFRS 16-basis).

On our outlook, Supreme trades on an attractive FY26 EV/EBITDA of 5.5x. Overall, there is no change to our (adj.) EBITDA estimates and no change to our Fair Value of 225p/share.

We are pleased to host the senior management of Strix Group plc, the global leader in the design, manufacture and supply of kettle safety controls and other components and devices involving water heating and temperature control, steam management and water filtration, for an Investor Presentation covering the company's Preliminary Results for the twelve month period ended 31 December 2024.

The online presentation will be hosted by Mark Bartlett, CEO, and Clare Foster, CFO. This event will take place at 11.30am on Thursday 1st May.

The webinar is open to all existing and potential shareholders, and you may register below. Questions can be submitted during the presentation to be addressed at the end.

Link to register: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/strixgroup-investorpresentation-1may2025

"Meeting revised expectations" - new note freely accessible here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/meeting-revised-expectations

Having last updated the market on 3 February, Speedy’s FY25 outturn has been consistent with commentary at that time. As a result, EBITDA looks to be in line with the prior year with a slightly larger H2 weighting despite a quieter Q4. In our view, Speedy’s share price discounts long-term profitability below current levels and the c.40% NAV discount looks anomalous.

Speedy’s share price has traded around the 19p level since this time, so our valuation observations at that time remain valid. With pressure on UK GDP expectations, cyclical exposure is seemingly out of fashion as reflected in Speedy’s earnings multiples. The same sentiment is driving an unconventionally high dividend yield of 13.3%; we acknowledge some outlook risk here though consider this to be almost certainly overdone.

"Hyper-focused on under-serviced EM payments" - detailed new research report with audio summary freely accessible here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/hyper-focused-on-under-serviced-em-payments

CAB specialises in B2B cross-border FX and payments, facilitating flows (both ways) between developed markets (DMs) and hard-to-reach emerging markets (EMs). Clients are sophisticated institutions such as commercial banks, central banks, payment Fintechs, and international development agencies.

It has only scratched the surface of its opportunity. In 2024, CAB processed £37bn of flows in a high-growth, multi-trillion-dollar market (it focuses on EMs growing at >4%). But even at this scale CAB has robust financials, with revenue of £106m and PBT of £18m in FY24.

In late 2023 & 2024 business volumes and revenue margins plummeted in some West and Central African markets (large, high-margin markets for CAB) after Central Bank interventions in their forex markets. Swift action followed: CAB has a new CEO, CFO, COO, CRO, Head of Banking, Global Head of Sales and Global Head of Payments.

A new strategy recognised over-concentration in some markets and now aims to diversify geographies, clients, and products; stabilise income; make growth more sustainable; and raise operational leverage.

Our fundamental value is 90p / share, using a DCF model. CAB's share rating looks extremely low compared to banks with far lower growth prospects.

"FY25 expected to be materially above expectations" - new research now available: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/fy25-expected-to-be-materially-above-expectations

In today’s FY25 year-end trading summary for the period 1 Apr 24 – 31 Mar 25, Mercia has announced it expects EBITDA to be ‘materially ahead’ of expectations. This seems to be driven by a ‘continuing focus on efficiencies.’ It also reported a jump in net inflows in Q4 (£250m). This is hugely impressive given such an uncertain market and economic environment.

It closed the year with cash and equivalents of c. £40m, well ahead of our forecast of £34m. Following the recent share price fall, that £40m of cash translates to around 31% of Mercia’s market cap. We.Provided there are no major falls in the NAV of on-balance-sheet investments, today’s update suggests that our previous sum-of-the-parts valuation of 52p per share (double the current share price) may prove conservative.

The £250m of inflows in Q4 (existing fund mandate increases, new fund management contracts, and successful VCT and EIS fund raises), coupled with the £57m in H1 shows that Mercia has developed a proposition which is highly attractive to investors in its range of vehicles.

We upgrade FY25 forecasts on the back of higher-than-expected net flows and additional efficiencies, and assume no major market moves in FUM, or large valuation moves to on-balance investments. Our fundamental valuation of 52p / share is unchanged for now.

Record inflows (again), impressive given markets

Tatton recorded another year of record net inflows, as it did in FY24 (£3.7bn in FY25; £2.3bn in FY24) – a hugely impressive achievement given market weakness and investor nervousness, especially in calendar-2025.

Closing AUM was 2.8% above our previous forecast (£20.8bn v £20.3bn), on stronger than expected net flows. Management has stated that FY25 results should be in line with market expectations, so, although the probability is that profits may be a little ahead of our forecasts, we have not changed these at this stage. Given the degree of market and economic uncertainty, we will wait for results (June) before updating FY26 forecasts and beyond, but we flag that our net flow assumption for FY26 is +£2.0bn, which is looking conservative given current momentum.

We leave our fundamental valuation of 715p per share unchanged, which is now c20% above the current share price after recent market falls.

Read our research here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/record-inflows-again-so-impressive-given-markets

Proving its quality and resilience once again

Vp’s full year trading update confirms another dependably resilient performance, in line with market expectations. As in previous years, the results are underpinned by the Group’s specialist offering and the diversity of end markets served.

Good strategic progress is being made in refreshing and centralising the operating model and the digital roadmap, which we expect to underpin growth and margins over the medium to long term.

Vp’s share price has fallen by 9% year to date and 14% over the past year, and leaves Vp’s valuation at multi-year lows on a P/E rating of c.7x and a dividend yield approaching 8%.

In our view, the shares offer compelling value for a high quality and reliable performer that has delivered sector leading returns and an attractive growth profile over many years.

Read the research note here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/proving-its-quality-and-resilience-once-again

AUM fell by £2.4bn (10%) in Q4 of FY25 (to 31 Mar 25), from £23.8bn to £21.4bn. Market movements, investment performance and currency fluctuations accounted for nearly all of the decline (£2.3bn). This was unsurprising considering the heavy falls in technology sector stocks (Dow Jones Global Technology Index: -11%), and Polar’s reporting currency, GBP, strengthening 3% over the US$, depressing the £-value of US$-denominated assets.

Pleasingly though, net flows were only marginally negative in Q4 (-£89m), an improvement over Q3 (-£260m). This is impressive given the decline in markets and investor sentiment, particularly in the technology space. Over the 12 months of FY25, AUM was down 2% with investment performance of -£495m, net flows of +£123m, and fund closures of -£111m.

Our FY26 forecasts and beyond are reduced due to: 1) a lower starting AUM level; 2) market uncertainty leading us to reduce our net flow assumptions for FY26 (to flat) and FY27 (to £0.5bn).

Our fundamental valuation reduces from 650p to 550p, but is >50% above the current share price.

Read our research note: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/markets-hit-aum-in-q4-of-fy25-but-net-flows-hold-up

A year-end update from Norcros confirmed modest LFL revenue growth in both divisions (including a slightly better H2 outturn) as well as a firmer group operating margin. Net debt was in line with the prior year, representing c.1x EBITDA.

There should be no headwinds from current global tariff machinations and ongoing business collaboration and active portfolio management should be recurring themes going into FY26.

On unchanged estimates, Norcros is trading on a mid-single digit P/E, offering a dividend yield above 5%. The latest DB pension triennial outcome (announced March 13) should have a positive impact on future cash flow and DCF valuation metrics; we will review our estimates and fair value with FY25 results in June.

Read our research here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/a-reassuringly-solid-fy25-performance

Maj Nazir (Group Investor Relations Director) discussed KGF FY25 Results following their release in March, exploring the progress the business is making in addressing the French operations and the march towards 5-7% retail margins. He also discussed the strength of their trade offering across both the UK (Tradepoint and Screwfix) as well as France and Poland.

The full video has been divided into chapters, as below:

0:00:00 Welcome remarks

0:00:28 Introduction - Kingfisher investment thesis and strategic priorities

0:11:15 Financial results

0:14:52 Outlook & guidance

0:17:13 Strategy update

0:30:41 Summary

0:31:53 Question & Answers

Watch the video here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/kingfisher-plc-investor-presentation-april-2025-0

Although AUM fell to £25.3bn on 31 March ‘25 , the investment performance was good vs broader market indices. Even on reduced forecasts Our DCF still shows a fundamental value of 400p/share, well above the last closing level.

As you can read / hear in new research note here :

https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/outlook-hit-by-markets-but-price-fall-looks-extreme

Mpac Group plc will host an Investor Presentation with Q&A on Friday 2 May following the release of their FY24 results for the 12 months ended 31 Dec 2024.

The online presentation will be hosted by Adam Holland (CEO) and Will Wilkins (CFO).

The webinar is open to all existing and potential shareholders, and registration is free. Questions can be submitted during the presentation.

Sign up to register for this event: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/mpac-fy-presentation-2may2025-

An encouraging H1 reported, despite market conditions, saw productivity and conversion ratio rise, with costs lower. Guidance for FY25 is unchanged: we conservatively adjust our Fair Value to 120p/share, vs 84p last close.

As you can read/hear in a detailed new research note here:

https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/on-track-for-fy-and-quietly-confident

Andrew Gossage (CEO) & Chris Dent (CFO) of Ultimate Products conducted a live investor presentation following the release of their Interim Results for the period to 31st January 2025.

Management discussed the strong growth in Europe, which continues to be offset by weaker UK trading. The team provided a detailed discussion of their strategy and financial highlights of the period, and answered a range of questions from viewers.

The full video has been divided into chapters, as below:

0:00:03 Introduction to Ultimate Products & investment case

0:05:48 Highlights of the period

0:11:53 Strategy

0:27:55 Financials

0:38:36 Summary & Outlook

0:42:15 Questions & Answers

Watch the video here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/ultimate-products-investor-presentation-interim-results-march-2025

Charles Skinner (CEO) and Dan Baker (CFO) of Restore plc conducted an Investor Presentation covering Full-Year results for the period to 31st Dec 2024.

Highlights included a high proportion of recurring storage income in Information Management continuing to support overall revenue, and a 170 basis point increase in the adjusted operating margin to 17.7%. Management discussed the recently announced acquisition of Synertec - a leading document management business for outbound communications, in particular for the public sector - and the team answered a range of questions submitted by viewers.

The full video has been divided into chapters, as below:

0:00:03 Introduction

0:00:28 Strategic highlights & Divisional performance

0:13:28 Financial overview

0:22:53 Synertec acquisition

0:27:09 Outlook

0:32:15 Questions & Answers

Watch the Investor Presentation here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/restore-plc-investor-presentation-fy24-results-march-2025

Kingfisher plc will be hosting an Investor Presentation with Q&A on Tuesday 8th April at 10.00am, following the release of their Full Year results for the period to 31st January 2025.

Maj Nazir (Group Investor Relations Director) will be presenting from Kingfisher, and the online event is open to all existing & potential shareholders.

Questions can be submitted during the presentation and will be addressed at the end.

Sign up to register at this link: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/kingfisher-investorpresentation-8april2025

"Market share wins and cyclical upside appeal" - new note available here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/market-share-wins-and-cyclical-upside-appeal

Kingfisher is primed, ready for a recovery in “big-ticket” spending. However, management’s understandably cautious guidance range for FY26E Adj. PBT has led the stock to give up its YTD gains. We believe this enhances Kingfisher’s value attractions.

Kingfisher’s FY25 results illustrated that management’s strategy to grow trade penetration and e-commerce sales is driving market share gains in the UK & Ireland, France and Poland.

Over the next three years we forecast c.36% growth in Adj. PBT and our upside scenario suggests c.90% potential growth. Whilst investors wait for this, we forecast a 10.5% FCF yield and substantial cash returns.

Hence, trading on under 9 x cal 2026 PER, we see scope for a significant re-rating. We reiterate our 340p Fair Value, equal to c.12.5x cal 2026 PER and c.3.5% dividend yield.

"Europe well poised to enhance growth" - new research note here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/europe-well-poised-to-enhance-growth

In Ultimate Products plc’s FY2025 H1 results, organic European sales growth was offset by a setback in the UK. The coincidence of higher shipping costs with lower sales prompted a fall in profits.

However, a combination of substantial growth headroom in Europe and the potential for both Salter and Beldray (around 60% of group sales) to benefit from their re-brands is reassuring for future growth.

We make no changes to our expectations for sales in FY2025, which implies a return to growth in the second half of the financial year. However, we have shaved our EBITDA expectation from £15.0m to £14.4m, towards the lower end of guidance.

We maintain our fair value for UP’s shares at 165p, equivalent to 1.1x sales, 14.4x EV/EBITDA and an 18.1x prospective P/E ratio.