Member Info for epiphany121

Concho after market close today, and Apache alongside Continental (Bakken) tomorrow - that'll give us a heads-up as to how they're looking at Capex for 2020 and insights on how production may trend. More updates here later/tomorrow...

https://www.investors.com/news/shale-oil-stocks-fade-concho-resources-apache-continental-resources-earnings-q3-2019/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

Excellent - Cheers, MO.

Lol - no chance of that happening, Hitman. We tried to get it out of JS in the AGM, and he'd only refer us back to what the analysts were projecting for end 2019 - circa $1550 mill net debt.

I work for BP's super subsidiary. I'm hearing that BP will fund expansion of Thistle to produce 20 kbopd next year, after removing the useless storage tank. SP will go to £2 this time next year - Lovely jubbly, I know.

Excellent news, Chilts. Brent's rallied more than a buck off the lows, possibly on positive noises about a trade deal. Every little helps.

Can't agree more, Beerbull. We schooled the All Blacks - what a defensive performance - Itoje was phenomenal!!

What's next - Brent 70 in December!!! Trade deal in November + Shalers getting cautious and pulling back + Draws = Higher Brent. Thistle back online in November and a good capital markets day = positive share price performance from us.

England did it against the odds - so will Brent, and Enquest will follow. OK, on to bubbly now - it's never too early for a big toast!!!

19 - 7, and 7 minutes to go - We've got this. Go, England!!!

A few unfortunate incidents later - here we are. But, higher Brent beckons and with higher FCF.

Yes, look forward to us toppling the all Blacks tomorrow - it won't be easy, but we don't like easy.

Cheers, MO. Fantastic numbers and a harbinger of things to come in 2020. Oil rigs off 17 - Permian's off 5 and Williston's off 2. OIl rigs are now 696, down from 875 last year this time. Hitman mentioned QEP yesterday and I know that company quite well. THey have $2 bill plus in debt and have only just about churned out Cash from Ops > Capex - in Q3 2019. They pulled a rig from the Permian and are now projecting Reducing Permian production in Q4 and Q1 2020, and they well know that they can't grow by investing in Capex with WTI at these levels. Wall Street has actually pushed up the SP from a low of $2.58 on Tuesday (before results) to a high of $3.75 today. I can lots of green on my Shale tracking screen as Street is getting convinced that their discipline will hold. That can only mean good news for us as US production is tempered and may even fall YOY in 2020 - certainly later on in 2020.

Shalers are desperately pushing for capex within cash from ops, and next week brings a torrent of companies reporting. A bellwether for me is Concho - now the 2nd largest Permian producer. Stock's off from $150+ to $66 today ($30 bill market cap to $13 bill now). I expect them to do what the smaller producers are doing and cut capex and get an SP boost on Tuesday. ;-)
Brent/WTI will rally well in Q4 - I see a rally to high 60s/low 70s in the next 2 months after the trade deal is announced. Hang in there all - Enquest will hedge for 2020 at those levels.

Good weekend all..

Hi Romaron,

The insight below from the CEOs of Halliburton and Schlumberger is really telling in terms of future outlook in the shale patch once we look past 2020. Unless WTI is firmly in the 60s (Brent mid 60s and higher), there won't be any real Capex growth in 2020 and that is pointing to potential negative growth, however mild, in the US in late 2020/early 2021.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oilfield-Services-Face-Crisis-As-Shale-Slowdown-Worsens.html

Let's just hope that the US China do something meaningful around removal of tariffs, soon.

Brent closing above $61 (up more than a buck and forty) today, the highest since September 27th and I can't but feel good about that.

Lol..Therapist. Thankfully, I'd missed all the posts about Neil, you and his mum, his stripping, Marshmellow butterflies - crikey, you could forgive me for thinking this was straight out of Never Ending Story 2. I'd seen references to a Butt-boy in a post or two, and £500 deals - but my limited mental faculties didn't allow me to put two and two together.

Beerbull - they're licking their wounds on a bad day for their supposedly genius predicting skills. They'll no doubt be back very soon, tomorrow or tonight even, and continue the garbage. And many people on here will be compelled to respond - that's human nature 101. ;-) And the sh**te continues...

Hi Hitman,
Brent up more than a buck as we speak - that tells you the oil market can surprise people in ways they can't predict. In spite of all the tripe from NH & Members about predicting the direction of prices or even inventories, it is but a big guessing game. Falling rigs is only a sign of slower growth - I really don't think Shalers are dying away though. Their SPs are butchered no doubt, but they're adapting quick, I believe. If you see the update from Laredo, a smaller 27KBOPD /70kBOEPD (Mostly gas mix) producer, in the link below they're saying they will have FCF in 2019, and still grow and be FCF generating in 2020/21. We'll probably see this message come through from a lot of other Shalers. Laredo have done great in hedging 75% of 2020 oil production at $58 - I'm not sure if others have hedged anything like that - I doubt it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/laredo-petroleum-announces-third-quarter-123000354.html

But, what the shalers will do though is prevent a runaway hike in oil prices - that's now a given. We'll have to generate FCF with oil in the circa $65 range, which is fine for us.

Hitman,

I certainly don't believe in the uber bullish analysis that Shale has hit a peak - that's rubbish. What we do know is that they're cutting Capex and using more of their DUC inventory at these low price levels to up their production, rather than boost capex and drill more wells. The Russia view that there will be reduced pace of production, rather than a drop in production in 2020, is more like it. Some of the larger Shalers will start Q3 reporting from next week and we'll get a better sense of where their Capex is heading. BCEI, a Colorado based shaler, put out an update today that their Capex was running below their Annual range mid-point, based on their current and projected spend for 2019, and that's saying a lot. However, it'll be good to hear what the Permian drillers are saying.

Shale company SPs have been pounded badly in the past 4 months or so, and are sitting at all-time/multi-year lows, and that tells you that Wall Street has no confidence for now in their spending discipline. This will no doubt force them to stick to Capex within FCF and reduce the pace of production growth. I can only see a negative growth rate if WTI gets into the 40s and stays there for a few months - not my base case at this time.

Officially confirmed that Members stepped in it big time. You still seeing Brent 58 and PMO 82 today? Losers do what losers do I suppose..

That's a pretty Bullish report

Has the resident village Mug stepped in it again? Doh....

There are way too many suckers on here with an incorrigible need to respond to trolls. I have to agree with DD - they're part of the problem here egging him on with their never-ending taking up of his baits and continuing this endless stream of useless back and forth.