Member Info for epiphany121

That's precisely what's needed to get Brent above $65. Numpty needs it and he'll do everything possible to get at least some tariffs, IMO.

Unlike last year, this year we'll have a Santa Claus rally as seasonal factors take hold, supported by a trade deal.

Magnus' associated gas production averaged 26.6 MMscf/day for the 8 months to August this year, which is approx. 4,600 BOEPD. The remaining fields produced an additional 4.7 MMscf/D, which is just about 800 BOEPD (say net to ENQ of 500 BOEPD). Add this circa 5,100 BOEPD number to the circa 62.6 BOPD of oil production that GKB deduced, you end up with closer to 68 kboepd for the first 8 months this year and even with the maintenance shutdown thrown in, that's not too bad.

Heather (1 kbopd) and Thistle (2.9 kbopd) accounted for 3.9 kbopd in August and losing these is no great shakes in the grand scheme of things with Kraken now outperforming and Scolty contributing as well. Don't be surprised to hear commentary from management that we're now trending at near the high end of the range (70 kboepd) for the year as a whole.

GL..

Gas production was 3.7 kboepd at Magnus - all in all back over 20 kboepd in August there.

Scolty/Crathes - not yet producing in August...

I can't download 201908 for some reason, but on screen we can see Kraken was 35.5 kbopd in August. Magnus was 16.5 kbopd (oil only).

Agree with you, Hitman. This will be an ops update, just a bit more formalised, giving the sellside a bit more love. Maybe they'll get on our side next year.

$350 mill debt reduction in H2 2019 - that's not possible unless they sell assets. $200 mill net debt reduction is a good result.

Great job, Tanker Trackers - Cheers. To borrow MO's phrase - Kraken is well and truly roaring.

Brent is doing well on the back of positive trade noises and better PMIs from Europe this morning. Every little helps.

GLA..

I use this link to get to the OGA page and download to Spreadsheet.

https://data-ogauthority.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/oga-field-production-pprs-wgs84

Not out yet - been checking.

Brent and WTI both closed up just over 2 bucks on the day - nice. The US clocks go back on Sunday and usual timings resume next week.

US - oil rigs down 5 and gas down 3. Oil at 691 versus 874 last year. Permian's lost 1. Oil up nearly a buck and a half as we speak.

Shalers are actually doing very well in terms of early results and many have had good rallies in the stock prices, and that's good actually good for us. They're cutting spending and trying their best to stay within Cash from Ops for their capex and hence, we're seeing these rig counts dropping.

As noted previously in an article posted by Pelle - they're probably relying a lot at this time on production from DUCs and knowing decline rates annually are anywhere from 40% to 70%, they'll certainly come back to bite next year. Those who point to falling rigs and increasing production currently are missing this point.

Good weekend all and let's hope for more positive economic news from the US and China next week - after all, these are the only ones that matters for oil.

Poor Members - didn't he say he's not posting here if ENQ finishes up today? How many times do you need to be wrong before you give up. ;-) Looks most of his posts yesterday were removed by the admins.

On a different note, Rig counts out in 3 minutes.

Not too bad, the ISM. Better than last month. Caixin China Mfg this morning was better than expected. All in all, a good news day. Brent should close up more than a buck..

Oil's had a good jump after these numbers. The share that's doing well today on my watchlist is GENL. THey had a decent update today, and that's up 5%. Otherwise, everyone's treading water.

ISM Manufacturing in an hour is the next key data point.

I'm sure that most longs here will agree, ENQ needs to get better at communicating to the market/investors - we've been saying that. This is a major gripe for me. Hiding behind the coattails of 'Guidance hasn't changed and we're within our guidance' doesn't cut it. I know there's a CMD coming up, but putting out some updates can't harm.

Data is out and the actuals are at 12.365 MMbbls a day, which is an all-time high. Looking back at the weekly EIA estimates, the 4 weeks average ending 30/08 was 12.375 MMbbls/day, and that was nearly spot on.

The 4 week average as of yesterday's report was 12.6 MMbbls/day, and so they still grew at 100 kbbls/day for the last 2 months. Winter's on us and will we see a dip in the production rates? we hope so..

Beerbull - Can't agree more. US data is turning against him and China holds many cards in this 'negotiation', least of which is that Xi doesn't have an election next year. The key will be to note when the current tariffs will be removed - until these happen, the so called deal will not fundamentally alter the economic dynamics in the manufacturing Midwest heartland.

Yes, indeed Romaron. The trade war is causing real difficulties in the US economic progress and oil is reflecting that, today for example. Chicago PMI came out and it was very ugly at 43.2 and almost all components are negative. Chicago Fed consists of many mid-western states that voted for Numpty and manufacturing in those states are in a recession, brought on by the China trade war - talk about mindlessness in policy bringing about unintended consequences.

Oil and Down selling off as a result. I doubt that Shell results or views would actually impact oil prices, but hard economic data out of the US sure does.

We await a firm resolution of the trade war - soon enough for us, I hope.

Lol, Romaron. Certainly the latter for the poor shareholders at Concho. Nothing serene about the fall they've had in the last year, and they can only really dream about our assets' depletion rates and FCF generation capability.

Lol, and they went and bought BHP's Permian assets for $10+ bill last year. I haven't gone through their report yesterday, but it's surprising that they haven't talked about that space in their report, particularly when you hear 'news' that some of other Majors are making serious long-term plans to boost production from that patch.

Morning P,

Yes, indeed. Our FCF is way better than CXO and 90% of shalers. Remember that they were a $150+ SP company around this time last year and are off 60% now. A circa $30 bill valuation to $13 bill now. Street's given up on most of these high spending shalers and their capex of $3 bill a year is way too high - phew. Rigs are still coming off and hence we'll certainly see a tempered or even a reduced production rate net year.

;-) unfortunately, I don't see any of these large shalers buy companies that are in the north sea, but they can at least help us out by reducing production in 2020.

Concho's reported a couple of hours ago, and their production in Q3 was static vis-a-vis Q2, at circa 330 kboepd (206 kbopd - oil and the remaining gas/NGLs). They did manage to have cash from ops at $705 mill at just over capex at $680 mill, and that's the first time they've done this in years. THey'll be spending capex of nearly $ 3 bill this year, just to sustain production at these levels with maybe some DUC inventory tucked away for those lean times. It's more of the same like the smaller QEP that reported last week. Shalers are reducing capex to live with cash from ops, and this is how it will be until WTI gets comfortably to the mid 60s and stays there.

The forecasters calling a 1 mmbbls/day increase from the US in 2020 are living in cloud cuckoo land, based on these early numbers. $65+ is still within reach in the next 2 months, assuming a trade deal is reached.

GL..