Member Info for epiphany121

Agree R. This panic will subside soon and oil market will revert to fundamentals -s need to be patient. We just need Enquest to execute operationally.

Hey Mod- remember that Nymex Henry Hub (HH) gas price isnt connected to gas produced by Magnus. That's priced at NBP, which is still sitting at multi-year highs too at 220p/therm, which is circa $29/mmbtu = >5 times Nymex HH pricing. Higher HH prices helps Shale/Canadians though.

Blind (and the moaning) Oil...I meant. AKA, Kraken Oil junior....

Bind Oil - I was speaking with Modestus and was responding to his questions - if you only have the attention span of a gnat and can't relate one post to another, then is it any surprise that you pick and invest only winners in the UK oil sector??

I have no green in my oil shares. Enquest was a middle of the road 8% off, HBR and DVN were around 5% off. Other shalers were off more than 10% with some like CPE more than 15% off. It was a muted downmove in shares vis-a-vis what happened to the commodity. Lets see - maybe even the market feels the move was overdone.

Hi Mod - no, I didn't. Got slammed - but you got to take the rough with the smooth. Dividends back in Q1 and hopefully they get costs under control and move back towards my average levels, which is still about 40% from here.

Wow!!! He's not really the Sleepy Joe then, is he - Joe's got an ally and Joe Covid sounds a lot better, heh? He's a cunning puppet master that's pulling the strings. What an amazing thought!!!

BTW, we now formally have a name for the new SA/Botswana variant - OMICRON. It may just be a damp squib though, no worse than the Beta variant. We've definitely seen an over reaction in the oil market today and it being a low liquidity day in the US today, post thanksgiving, didn't help. More news from the Vaccine makers will be out in 2 weeks' time and you expect them to say that the efficacy is down a bit, but still pretty efffective. We'll start the move back up in oil next week, after today's undeserved sell-off.

Kraut baby - what do you get when you mix Kraut with an Omelette? Is that Sour porridge?

I hope the ping machine isn't bothering zee too much? Did zee buy oil today - too much panic yes. We're back to the June 2020 trading days when oild got hammered on some shutdown news in the US. I thought we're well past that, but both the UK and Zee governments are panic masters.

Rookie1 - "Like I said earlier I’m no virologist but the basics suggest virus’s mutate more transmissible but weaker so we should be getting there, if not we are being lied to.". I really hope so too. I don't believe the government is intentionally lying here, but the first reaction is panic and the market just follows suit. We don't really know that this variant is both more infectious + vaccine proof - what research/tests have really been done? Everyone's shooting first and asking questions later. For our wealth's sake, I hope this turns out to be just a headfake and normalcy sets in from Monday.

No Fear - you're not looking at the right Nat Gas prices. Henry Hub pricing has zero impact on HBR as they don't produce/sell Natural gas in the US. Look for NBP pricing as that's what is relevant for HBR. NBP is down today, but still pretty high by historical standards - above £2.20/therm. And of late, Henry Hub has been following NBP's movements, although today's upswing in HH suggests that a cold front is on its way to push up demand in swathes of the US. I stringly believe Tolmount + Dividend leaks is what's keeping HBR this strong.

Rookie1 - I don't believe in vaccine mandates or forced vaccinations like Austria is moving towards. Everyone should have a choice. If the unvaccinated suffer consequences, then that was their call. As long as outright lies aren't spread by anti-vaxxers, then that's fine by me. I never take flu vaccines personally and flu never really affects me to any degree, but I did have a Covid jab. I've known friends and family that passed away for Covid, but none from the flu. Getting enough of us vaccinated is for me a way to get virus potency lower and towards an endemic state. That's when we don't really need to hear these bloody daily/weekly updates about cases and variants. For all of our sakes, I hope we get there in 2022. I'll pass on your governments imposing communism theory as I think it's nuts. We're (the west) capitalist societies inherently and there's a role for government within that structure. There are various degrees of government support/largesse - sure. Do I like all of it - not at all. Lots of reform can/must be made and I hope governments do that with resolve. It'll be a plod, I could live what that.

awww, don't get wound up, jefffffffff. Take a deep breath and be nice to people. This is season for love you remember?

There are more things than heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philisophy - I bet Shakespeare wasn't quite thinking QAnon.

Texan - you won't go far offering logical arguments to young jeffff. He's probably 19, can't spell and only looks at yeild when deciding on investment and doesn't believe anything on telly. You offer him up an anti-vaxx or QAnon link, and he'll lap it up - that's gospel.

BTW - I'm visiting your neck of the woods, assuming your name is where you're from, next month over Christmas/New Year. They have minimal Covid restrictions there and after a difficult late summer/autumn, Texas is bouncing back. I'm sure I'll visit or least gaze fondly at a few shale pumpjacks as I drive around the Permian or the Eagle Ford near Houston.

Lockdowns are useless and are not an answer, and obviously bad from an economic viewpoint - people have to learn to live with this Virus and vaccines help if enough are vaccinated. I'm a walking endorsement of their efficacy - it was a short sharp burst of illness and then on the mend. But, to each their own as we're navigating through these strange times. Maybe 2022 will be end of Covid and we don't to listen to the inane theories on this board (and others).

Oh I've bought put options on the Spider (SPX) to get protection on the downside when there are periods of volatility. After all, that's what free thinkers do - they know that inane conspiracy laden commentary on public sites don't really influence what Governments end up doing and they actually prepare for what could happen!!!

Let's see now - if you ignore short term volatility, the medium to long term trend in HBR is still up.

Over and out for now - while the nescient little chaps argue over variants and governments.

This is the sort of news that matters. New variants' initial sensationalism is now in-built in the news cycle and does create volatility unfortunately, as we're finding out on a day like today. Markets always try to digest the worst, but should stabilise after the US opens lower and slowly moves back up. It's large scale lockdowns that can cause demand-side problems and I don't see that happening, based on what we know now about this variant, which is little.

We can, but only be patient. And accumulate if there are spare funds available.

Hmmm - And I thought this was a HBR stock discussion board and not a Covid conspiracy laden, anti-vaxx and anti-government bulletin board? I suppose you could be right and wrong at the same.

Agreed, R. That was my point - The SPR release was more or less priced in by the market. If other nations released say another 50 mmbbls in a coordinated move, that could've maybe caused a flutter for a day longer. It's back to BAU now...

Here you go !! Knee jerk down, but should pick up in a day or two, if not later today

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/biden-announces-release-of-strategic-petroleum-reserve-20211123

Good morning L3 - yes, good point and that could be a reason. That news may have leaked to the market - we can only speculate.

I can't see them bouncing back from that Take Down ;-) - that was cracking, HC. Personally, I have no problem with the reasons why you're bearish - the management haven't done anything yet of note to warrant a thumbs up, but maybe that'll change in the CMD starting with them laying down dividend plans. The SP action looks strong just in the past few days vis-a-vis other UK oil peers - a possible fund/s accumulation is one explanation. Good luck, however you play this.

KO - you're right here about Oil. No real facts, isn't invested and he just 'sounds' like a bitter man - possibly that's an act too. I'm not entertaining him anymore - I don't want him to get full £3.50/Hr wages, which was hiked from £3/hr when he was just on the HBR board doing this same old inane commentary. Bait, bait and bait - and he knows quite a few on here will bite.

Good weekend all and keep the faith till 2022.