Member Info for epiphany121

Hi P - I hold some Africa oil. I also hold VET and CPG in US/Canada. Africa oil is part of the Lundin family management team and is a reliable player I suppose. CPG is still selling for 60% of book value and now at about 4% yield from Q2 2022 onwards. That's not a bad investment. It's $5 now and was 35 bucks about 7 or 8 years ago. Was in the teens a couple of years ago. VET has good European gas exposure and a gross debt of $1.4 bill for a 80kboepd company - operations all over the world. Yield now is about 2%. I know Mod likes Petrobas, but the risk factor there is Government interference. There's a reason why it's yielding 20% at this time - if Bolsanaro goes, then that is a buy trigger no doubt.

Hey Mod - Vermillion also has circa 50% of their existing gas output hedged for 2022 (and a lot more in Q4 21) unfortunately. But certainly not as bad as HBR and with the new acquisition deal with Equinor Ireland, that's a windfall for them with them locking 70% for 2022 at the current price levels - that's just fab. CPG upped dividend for Q2 22 and you can see that happening yet again.

Enquest will probably take another year, but I keep my fingers crossed that it's coming - it just has to. ;-)

Hey R - talk about us having operational issues - HBR just can't seem to get Tolmount off the ground and take advantage of all-time highs in NBP prices. I had a trading position there and sold most of it first thing today. They're a solid company, no doubt, but their bad hedging is coming back to bite them. By my calculations, they'll end up losing circa $1 bill in 2022 because of their gas hedges (mostly) and some oil hedges and that profit could've been tax free because of their carry forward losses inherited from PMO. They could've been debt-free by mid-2023, but for these hedge losses. Combine that with selling pressure from PMO creditors and the European ESG brigade, it will be slow grind on the road to recovery.

There's about a 4% dividend yield available from next year at these price levels - is that enticing enough for institutions?

Lol, R. Hoping that Magnus is up and running nicely and generating plenty of NBP saleable gas. And not to forget. gas from PM8/Seligi too. It'll be a slow grind till we get the next update, but with GE in the bag, I'm hopeful that it will be positive. And with Brent above/near 75, that's a good sign heading into Q1 22.

GLA

Why would Dana sell out of Tolmount at a discount when NBP has gone up 600% in the last 6 months? It's not like they've gone and hedged any of the production and locked in lower prices.

The test results will only say whether you're Covid positive or negative. When I tested positive, the report didn't say that I had Delta (I'm pretty sure I did as I had all the symptoms) or Alpha/Beta variant Covid.

BTF - are you saying that the NHS is now doing this OR is this own deduction from a positive result? Presumably the latter.

Ammu and you aren't too different with your trading instincts and pumping/dumping though.

Good shout there, Mod as they'd keep drilling otherwise. WTI is low to mid 60s should result in spending restraint.

They've done the right thing - they can now say they're carrying on with their increase plan for 2022. If Omicron gets worse, then that's a different situation and they could then look to cut back. For now, this is a better outcome for the oil market - maybe oil knee-jerks lower now and should regain balance soon - maybe even later today? A production pause is ST positive, if that, but doesn;t bode well for medium term and also takes US gaze away from OPEC. They can't really complain anymore.

Mod - the problem though is that fear and anticipation of bad outcomes can result in near-time palpitations confounding all the facts in question. We saw this in 2018 when Brent fell from $85 to $50 in 2 months from End October to End December. The worry then was that Fed would raise rates. We now have a useless worry about a mild variant PLUS the quicker fed taper talk. We just can't predict how the dice would roll in the coming 2 or 3 weeks - it may get worse before getting better.

Yep, indeed it is and its an unstoppable force. It will now do, maybe only in the near term, what Biden & co just couldn't deliver on - bring down oil prices substantially. Jay's taper talk isn't helping either though

Meanwhile in South Africa, at the Omic epicentre - https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status/1465685456851550214

We'll need to watch over the next few days, but panic is overriding hard data.

Name Typo - that was (Stephen) Bancel, Moderna's CEO. He's still a panic mongering mor0n.

I probably replied as you were typing this.. ;-)

Hey Mod - yes, the best part was that they hedged 70% of NBP production in the low 20s/MMBTU in 2022 and mid-teens in 2023. Project payback in 2 years with that hedging - it's a no-brainer. More dividends? The 6c is a start.

Bansale is the worst and Bourla is not too far behind - of course, it fits their agenda to keep repeating that a new vaccine will need to be produced for Omic. Bansale caused unnecessary panic this morning with his FT interview - wouldn't we love to Moderna get slammed back down by 50% in the coming weeks? I would.

Just keep repeating...

https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1465634291422015490

Emm, you can. It's collective market panic and fear, and sell first and ask questions later is the motto. Oil will be volatile for the next few days until more data comes out of SA, no doubt affirming that Omic is a milder variant (not made-up given the anecdotal evidence so far from Gauteng) and once that's out of the way, normal service should resume. Moderna's CEO triggered the market panic this morning, but you'd expect that numpty to say that wouldn't you? We just need to be patient - oil prices (and other assets) always take the stairs up and the lift down.

Can't see that trade last too long. When Omic is shown to be much milder in the next couple of weeks, Moderna will be sold off and the re-opening trades will be put back on. Bansale's fearmongering is a key driver for the down-leg today, but then you'd think that's a no-brainer - why on earth wouldn't he? Market's still panicky and you can see this volatility last for another couple of weeks when more data comes out of SA.

Oil - I can't argue against what you write. There are better resrictions on the US markets against directors buying based on inside info (it still happens a lot, don't get me wrong) as comapnies are required to report quarterly and there are closed periods every quarter - no such restrictions here when you only have 2 half-year reports and a few updates. I'm not sure if/when the directors can trade ahead of these updates, but it should be a lot tighter.

NBP = National Balancing Point gas futures and is the UK benchmark. It's second only in liquidity in Europe to TTF which is nat gas traded on the Dutch markets and is benchmark for European gas pricing. Link below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Balancing_Point_(UK)

If anyone wants to track NBP spot as well as futures prices, this is the link.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5188710

Oil - " Still, with Gas down a massive 11% (eleven %) I wonder how on earth did we manage to finish up"? Which gas prices are you looking at? Whatever it is you're looking at doesn't really matter, because the only gas price that matters to HBR is NBP price and that was up about 8% today. Tolmount pricing is linked to NBP. Could that be an easier explanation as to why HBR ended up today - both oil and gas moved up favourably?