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Here’s to a 200p buyout

Concern on Ingen is its private : even less transparency / accountability than present and effectively illiquid : can’t exit. If it’s only c2yr away from breakeven why do a MBO (for £25m!!) now. Either open market sale or continue. I wonder if - on reflection - they decide not to demerge

I’d rate some management moves (obvs MM won’t go) such as new leadership at Nutrition.

Nutrition will miss again in Jan due to the rebrand

The BoD would not have approved RNS with ‘early November’ unless they were advised / had some visibility on that being possible. So something has come up in executing plans (could mis-planning in first place) -or- arrived externally to cause delay. I don’t think SP decline is a factor. Who knows what’s going on externally. I would suggest there’s something niggly in the demerger being argued out at THG that is causing delay. It could be NewCo / RemainCo obligations. It could be NewCo lease liabilities. It could be that MM is so very very clearly conflicted.

Fail. And silence from IR or the BoD

Whilst at this stage no certainty can be provided on the exact timescale of the Demerger, the current intention is that publication of the Demerger Circular would be in or by early November

No RNS. No update. C. 30% drop in SP since trading update. Early Nov in my book is at least in the first half.

There’ll be some excuse when it comes out - in two weeks at this rate

Then that Rock8 say circa x3 is where we should hope a bid arrives from

What would be value of THG be without MM. I ask as that’s probably the way we should look at it from a buy-out perspective. Layer in to that an organisation that already moves in FMCG and has a need for end to end fulfilment and we have a max value a purchaser would derive from THG.

Bull case is unforeseen performance from Nutrition (almost zero likelihood) continued performance from Beauty and immediate strip out of ingenuity costs that get reflected within a quarter. Of these it’s only Beauty that may perform but I’m concerned Christmas will not be bumper given sentiment pre (and post) budget.

Ingenuity is an easy offer in my mind. Stalking horse makes an offer that’s more than EV declared and BoD need to explain (a) why it’s not being considered and if not then (b) why that isn’t the price that should be used for a split.. as it’s a market offer. In some ways put an offer in to see what happenss

This is the point the FT article made well. A circa 90m raise diluting existing shareholders so ingenuity can be sold for £25m with a £75m gift into a newco that key shareholders know many can’t easily follow. It’s a complete smoke screen by MM to advising it’s fair as existing shareholders can go into newco… he knows and is banking on fact many can’t. It would have been better to sell it (and MM could in this instance buy it) but the de-merger is a fleecing of many and BoD have allowed MM to run rings around them.

I can only think of a take out. Nutrition unlikely to rebound until management changes (and MM wedded to current). Likely nutrition needs to disappoint a couple more times before a change is forced. There are another six months to go on the rebrand : so perhaps when that completes

Could drop again on circular … its dropped every update for a while now. Very much hoping an actor goes public with an offer for whole group at say 100p. BOD would then have to explain why demerger is better than that.

And theft-like albeit with ceremony. Who does a rights issue to raise funds to sell part of a business to an owner (and board member) with a discount + cash and then state as a BoD good governance is extremely important. Warrants a Private Eye investigation.

If you only wanted to be in NewCo you would sell all shares you believe to be excess to what you could carry into NewCo to change the demerger ratio by dropping sales price. So expect NewCo only interested parties maybe doing this. The enormous flaw in this logic is they must be doing it at an enormous loss to the book price they once paid for it.

I’m at 98p. Shocking really. Esp as 170p significantly undervalued the company. Surely someone has to pounce on MM gymnastics.

Probably date of circular

I would welcome a buyout offer : whole lot immediately after circular. Surely PE can take this off our hands for a £1-2 SP.