Once Irans oil storage is maxed out, which the USA said is any day,1 May 2026 11:07
As I understand it all the oil wells in Iran will have the be turned off (shut in). The only doubt about this is when the oil storage will reach that point. Shutting in oil wells (Google it) is not a good thing to do. Unfortunately when they are turned off the route to the end of the pipe is damaged (underground due to pressure etc). So when they are turned back on they may only have 60% of the flow rate they had before. A good flow rate is 3000 barrels per day. 60% would be 1,800 b.o.p.d. This can be increased, but the work is expensive. Sometimes it's cheaper to drill a new well. $2 to $15 million for a new well. I think what the USA said must be true as Iran clearly cannot export much oil at the moment. So it seems once they max out the storage it will be another massive financial cost. Iran was struggling with it's finances before the war as is well known. The only sensible way forward for Iran is to do some sort of deal with the USA which MUST allow them to export and import through the straight. Financial suicide if they don't I believe. Countries cannot function without money. Social unrest leading to revolution is a very real possibility IMHO if they do not do a deal. If they wait social unrest may start and Trump may change his mind about doing any deal (if he thinks a revolution is likely). Irans leaders need to be very careful.
All IMHO.