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Wolffie, I’ve often heard you run the plaudits for Jim Cramer of CNBC … he pulled a cracker here out of the bag in SVB!

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGJ54EnnG/

Anyone got any ideas what may happen to the share price when the announcement/D4E hits, it must be imminent or overdue in terms of the court timetable by now

… my view it will be a massive D4E, they will probably say they plan to delist and take the company private but will be accompanied by a large rights issue granted to the lenders, $800m odd has been the figure thrown about for future working about so therefore “survive”. There will probably be a hint what is happening to the Ciniplex claim as well

… so will the share price spike or head to zero fast? Thoughts anyone.

I think it probably is true based on docket 1375 which states a Cineplex “bid” and Cine had to respond to a firm called Goodmans who are a Canadian law firm who specialise in M&A (amongst other things)

@LTH, I got this wrong I genuinely thought there was a possibility of 10p and was the first to ridicule the RNSs that I thought were way over the top but when I saw the RNS last Friday it was obvious the game was over and I sold out at 1 minute past 8, 8.01am at 3p nursing a 71% loss, that’s why I have been quite all week, totally chastened in my big mouth.

If I had got in at 3.5p and out at 5.5p like it has bounced a couple of times then good, but I didn’t.

My only hope now is still for a NOL Motion like I argued for but now feel that is lost too as haven’t seen it in the lawyers bills recently…

Think of it this way, getting 5p or 10p now is like spinning a roulette wheel, only think is there are 995 black numbers (99.5%) and 1 red number and you expect it to come up red …

@wolff, they will either delist and run as a private co and have to pay shareholders 0.01p per share or delist and relist as a new Plc, it will be the former, the days of Cine being listed are gone

Yes, totally with it on DCF, was more meaning the hard bargaining has now begun … buyers want this for the lowest (statement of the obvious I know), the seller, here Cine will be putting their valuation figure out there, probably prepared by PJT Investment Bankers, on whatever methodology or heightened figures they chose.

My $4bn was merely a thumbsuck, $500m ROW, $500m UK, $3bn USA (half of what they paid for it). The other point of possible interest is the co chair of the Creditors Committee is a VP of Paramount Pictures… she’ll have her work cut out to get the best deal for creditors but Paramount or other film studios won’t want Cine to go tits up by too hard a bargaining

Indeed @tegop, but you need a head wobble … if they sell the assets to pay off the debt, the asset is gone, kaput, shareholders will have no asset in future

… at least with D4E, we are left with something however small and it will be very small, may only be 0.05p or even less

@tegop, bless you are struggling a bit here … if there is a sale (of Regal) there is nothing left to account for in the USA, the asset has gone, kaput, no D4E etc …

The work of docket 1374 is premised on there is not a sale of Regal, there is a D4E

Wolff, in what circumstances can you see current shareholders getting out of here with a few pence, the RNS has made it clear the figure is zero.

What I’m thinking is Ciniplex claim gets extinguished as they are a bidder somewhere, valuation could be in the few billion range under “normal conditions” ROW is worth something, creditors are taking 99% haircuts but so are shareholders etc

btw fwiw last nights docket 1374 is Cineworld asking EY for accounting advice for Regal “once the post emergence ownership structure is known” … this to me hints at a D4E is still the more likely than a sale … since if it was a sale why bother with starting accounting advice now, the asset (Regal) will be gone (ps this seems to come on the back of all the tax structuring being done)

4th bullet 4th page

Thank you Wolff, I can’t see a valuation near $6bn either in this environment on whatever methodology the beancounters used, I can see maybe $4bn odd for the whole lot - ie they paid $6bn for Regal a few years back so why not - but at the end of the day that’s hopeless for shareholders as the assets will be gone

In other words the only way shareholders can get anything now is from the very scraps of a D4E

@Hexam, the only “rational logic” I can think of why this is outside the remit of the Takeover Panel in a sale of assets situation even if 90% of the group assets are sold is they cannot come to a “better solution” for shareholders than a bankruptcy court, or impose themselves above a bankruptcy court, and without that solution shareholders would have nothing anyway

Would you agree with that analogy, however “wrong” that may sound?

Can’t copy and paste @tegop, but am sure you can read, it’s the last sentence in paragraph 3 in here, makes it explicitly obvious

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CINE/update-on-chapter-11-cases-r5zimw7ye6jq6f6.html

@tegop, as much as I would like you to be correct, the opposite is in fact the factual position. Read the last sentence of the 3rd paragraph in the RNS last Friday where it states the opposite

That’s the bit I would welcome someone explaining why in any sale of assets situation, of whatever amount, the Takeover Code does not apply, and shareholders have no say, it must be something to do with bankcruptcy law

@tegop, a sale or auction wouldn’t help us now, if for example they got $4bn or $5bn even and the lenders say “thanks we will take that and write off $2bn”, the assets are gone, no recovery for anybody

That’s the bit about the Takeover Code I don’t understand why it wouldn’t apply in any sale circumstances, at the moment the shareholders still own the company and have no say in anything it would seem.

@tegop, well sandy grove can p..s any recovery away, not even p.s.ing in the wind will help them now ..

What’s your view why we haven’t gone to 0.00p already then after last week’s RNS announcement?

Also something we may have missed, myself included, is that Mookys 20% holding via GCF was I understand pledged for one of the loans. Given that, and the creditor scrutiny around the whole status of that balance, as well as the lenders hate Mooky for what he has done lends itself to the narrative that shareholders get zip from the creditors

The only way Mooky would appear now to get anything out of this is I think if he can negotiate some kind of 18m incentive plan for himself pending the new equity holders punting it somewhere else after 18 months.

Wolff, you made a post a couple of weeks ago that a D4E was worse for shareholders than a sale … given a sale because all offers are well below $6bn and would be a total wipeout, why do you have this view?

And what would be your reasoning why this hasn’t already gone to zero given the pretty clinical last RNS that said it’s now pretty clear that shareholders will get nothing?