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Para 107 of the court agreement says that Cineworld, in law, had no basis to cancel the transaction due to a pandemic, ie covid 19

Won’t be a slam dunk that if Cineworld do a new co, avoids the cineplex debt, there will be an array of legal arguments wrapped up with this and whether from cineplex perspective, it constitutes a contrived effort to avoid a court liability.

The court finding and it’s appeal can still progress in my view after C11 is over, whether it is successful or not is the $64m dollar question - or gamble - by either party

Actually quite revealing and informative, at least to me, on the mechanics of how large theatre groups are run, in fact very informative (Wolff or Hexam you will find some of this document of interest from the bankers approach and perspective to deal making). In quite a few areas the Mooky and co do not come out of this smelling of roses, far from it. Based on the way the judgement is written, would love to see the counter arguments why they think they can overturn the ruling, but equally cineplex must know if they succeed in the claim, Cineworld can’t pay it, so “everyone” benefits if Cineworld continue

On that note at Para 96, it states typical payment terms to studios usually 35 days after movie release. So Avatar 2 probably falls due in about a months time

Wonder how much studios are invested in Cineworld success as No Cineworld or it going into administration no fees to them in 15% of the USA and however much % in the uk

For those interested to learn more about the cineplex deal, here is the Canada court judgement, it is interesting around page 9 it starts to shows the precise wording of pressured text messages between Cineworld investors and Cineworld directors ..

https://cdn-res.keymedia.com/cms/files/ca/126/0395_637837419166060123.pdf

Thanks for your comments everyone on cineplex, the reason I asked about winding up is every day in the lawyers bill it shows someone spending 10 minutes checking the London Gazette to see if anyone has started a winding up hence why I wondered does C11 totally protect.

Also an interesting point is cineplex a “real creditor” as no liability has been provided for by Cineworld in its accounts, it probably is as the judge made an order for payment even though it is under appeal and I did see cineplex name in the C11 creditors committee as a participant.

You were correct Wolffie approach was made in September 2022 and widely reported in news (first picked up by Wall Street journal), wonder if such discussions are still alive. I’ve not picked up any indications from the raft of lawyers bills

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-09-28/cineplex-approaches-cineworld-lenders-to-revive-merger-with-regal-wsj

Thanks Wolffie, are you sure new co and delisting kills their claim as that’s what appears likely. They must be in a catch 22 don’t want anyone to petition for a wind up, has same effect in new co terms. Do you know can anyone, any creditor petition for a wind up or does C11 process prohibit that? And also are cineplex a “real creditor owed money” when an appeal is still outstanding

I guess what I am saying / thinking is cineplex have neither a strong or weak hand (but no doubt will have their own lawyers advising them)

Wolff, what do you think Cineplex strategy in all this is, on the one hand if new co Cineworld is formed it is game over (is that correct?) so whether current Cine management form a new co (very likely) or some creditor petitions for wind up, it’s also game over

Whereas on the other hand they believe they are a creditor owed $1bn subject to final appeal post C11 which they may win or lose? Even if they won Cineworld would not have the readies to pay them, so they would be like a vulture over a carcass

Maybe they should go back to the negotiating board and negotiate something with Mooky?

Will there be a presentation half way through the movie for yourself Wolffie, to collect you gong for lifetime services to the LSE Cineworld Chat site?

A more deserving contender I cannot think of … three cheers for Wolffie as we start 2023!

Cruis, I don’t think it really matters whether December does or doesn’t beat predictions it more that Avatar2 so far seems to be having a very good run, which should continue into January and beyond, this can only be positive for Cine and if it so chooses would expect to see a positive trading statement, it last put one out so long ago it probably now irrelevant

On a different point, with worldwide BO so far at $1.2bn after two weeks, why would $2bn be so hard to beat (it’s abou5 $10m per day for next 75 days), after that Avatar should be looking at $3bn should it not over it’s next 6 months

The media beat is generally quite positive on Avatar at the moment, don’t expect it though to impact share price until other news accompanies this though

Why I think the share price is due for a bounce back up on “news” is that it is only 2 months ago when we were at 2.8p, hit the dizzy heights of 8p now back at 3.5p.

What’s happened since then, the judges decision that triggered that spike is still intact and arguably things with Avatar 2 have improved things, as should C11 decisions and when the RNS releases more details on the reorg plan

Each day over the last month or so has been 10% or so with a drift down on the share price each day, spike ups can just as much( happen on “news”

Morning Wolffie, just been reading names in the New Year Honours list, didn’t see your name for a knighthood services to the LSE Cineworld chat board, how come, would have thought that would have been nailed on, how come? You must be disappointed!

Here here JH, what are creditors going to get if the company goes into administration, a few movie chairs and a bit of left over popcorn maybe?

That said, the latest information we have is that UK Plc is going to be delisted and they have a so called UK implementation plan, whether that gets replaced by something else we will have to wait and see

How’s your black and white cat Postie, do some people sometimes call you Pat and do you deliver early in the morning just as the day is dawning?

https://www.songfacts.com/lyrics/postman-pat/postman-pat-and-his-black-and-white-cat

Cruis, Mooky does have a choice in that he, along with the other directors, are being separately advised (per the lawyers bills) one of which talks about Plan B, and there is probably a Plan C as well. There is much in the lawyers bills about how UK Plc will be delisted and I have often posted on this board about RNS, Investec, FCA and Takeover Panel all in the loop

So Mooky, along with the other directors, have more influence than any other shareholders in calling some shots / decisions and how the negotiations get played out

Think of it this way, Mooky and his 20m shares are in the same boat as us, is he really going to accept 3.5p as the exit price for his lifetime investment, his $1bn now worth £700k, I think not.

This will rise and rise on news we know not yet.

Agree Wolff, I watched SMIT during the covid period and it was in many of the mega stocks, it almost got caught in a catch 22 situation where it is very long term holders and rarely sells, it may have trimmed a few Tesla but would be in an interesting question whether it now wishes it had sold more 12 months or so ago, same with its holdings in Netflix and Amazon. Still it has a very stellar portfolio.

Re meme stocks, just spotted this with its recognisable steer clear names, recent dated, and the second one (could have been posted before) that AMC could be a smoking gun about to go up in flames …

https://investorplace.com/2022/12/7-hot-meme-stocks-of-2022-to-sell-before-2023/

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3915013-amc-entertainment-drops-amid-report-of-lenders-organizing-on-liquidity-concerns

I agree Wolff, you must be (veto) pleased with Tesla, it still has good fundamentals and is being knocked by Twitter saga as you say (maybe Musk will now exit Tesla with his head still held high). Not just the covid era but pre that and thought when it did it’s 5:1 split (from about $2,500 from memory), it couldn’t go any higher but it did … and is now retreating…

I’m sure you’ve also followed SMIT, FTSE 100 and what it was invested in long term, they have made mega money on Tesla since 2013, also in Moderna, Ferrari, select others (thought they were in Zoom as well but may have punted that since)

Also agree APE and meme investors are goons, now paying the price. It’s how they created “enough” buying power for long enough for it to make a difference (unlike say bed bath and beyond and game stop which tanked quickly)

Wolff, what would your view on both AMC and Tesla be, shares that have relied on retail investors in part (Tesla less so) to hike the share price hugely over a 2 or so year period, shares that are now tanking.

How did so-called “buyers” manage to get so much momentum into the shares that the institutional “bots” didn’t price back down with power volume, or did they join the party

It’s an unusual phenomenon a meme stock that “enough” retail investors buy “enough” volume to force prices up, for long enough, that you can even use this short term “equity” (if you can call it that) to raise or pay off debt such that institutions buy into the theory against the fundamentals

… and on a different note, someone just posted the VIP experience for Avatar at Glasgow Cine, cost £30

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMFv2SsL6/