Member Info for elrico

Something has just occurred to me after Antz retweeted a section of yesterday lemming update. SOH has made clear there are other pharma's at the table, which is creating more interest given GMP status. However, IMHO the US pharma is in the box seat with the option to take up global exclusivity, which would trigger the 2nd 7 figure milestone. This option surely puts significant pressure on Indian, Pakistani and Italian partners with the pharma option. This must create a race and or a bidding contest?

4D will need further funding due to the nature of their business model. They have a very different approach to reaching commercial traction than OPTI.

IMHO OPTI are 5+ years ahead of 4D

I'm sorry about this, peeps - but SOH has sent me a second note worthy of adding to the update, which is very encouraging from the pharma perspective. Now added to the original quote.
https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2019/10/optibiotix-health-lp-dld-gains-rare-fda.html

Don't allow your version of the facts get in the way if reality.

It was made clear just 3 weeks ago OPTI expect c£1m FY and no placing requirements, much to the annoyance of the naysayers and mathematically challenged.

Leaving the BS aside. Today's news is exceptionally important in a number of ways. It also triggers the pharma milestone.

Better still....
https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1181966412304261121?s=19

IMHO the market and most investors have missed a key development announced last year. This is discussed and general sentiment why we are where we are and where OPTI goes from here.

Listen to Two old farts shooting the breeze discussing #OptiBiotix 3.09.2019 by lemming investors on #SoundCloud
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236/two-old-farts-shooting-the

Apple for the late reply. I've not been on the BBs much.

The answer is no, it's nothing to do with OPTI.

Sorry, but this isn't the main point, as big as it is. Sean has got all three margin matrix badly wrong, which is key to driving future cash + profits. Sean has obviously guessed all of these, of based it on a similar business model he may have covered via another tip. You cannot do this, its fundamentally wrong, amateur, even. You have to ask, how can obtain this key info and he cannot? I'll tell you. I spend the time to research and ask questions. Sean has not. He has only met SOH once and that was a few months after his initial tip, which was after reading my blog. Make of that what you will. You would need to see his initial tip on OPTI to understand what I am saying.

One of his other point was the lack of retail take up of products. Had he done his research or at least speak to SOH, he would know what know; namely there is at least one retail launch in Jan, possibly two more later in the year. So why tell you subscriber which must be already underwater from the initial tip, further compound this by telling them to sell? He should be telling them now is a good time to average down. But to do this, he needs to be sure the placing isn't needed. To do this he needed to speak to SOH. Guess what....he didn't.

I know of 2 subscribers that have cancelled their membership to growth stock network.

Peeps, I have just update the Sean Keyes #OPTI sell note after being sent the note. It is exceptionally poorly researched note. It seems Sean's standards have slipped.

Scroll to update icon at the foot.

https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2019/09/optibiotix-sean-keyes-and-poor-logic.html

Hi Gibo, I had a hunch. 20 odd messages before market closed gave me hint. :)

I sent the article to SOH and TW. TW agree's with me.

https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1175356245223649281?s=19

Gibo,

You can PM via ADV. I'm not putting my email up. I get enough fan mail as it is. ??

There is an update on last nights #OPTI update. Further comment from CEO. Stephen O'Hara can be found at the foot. https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2019/09/optibiotix-health-distribution.html

The point I was trying to make is each new product launch takes time to gain traction. So gallenicum as an example, only launched in October, which is quite late to gain any real momentum in the period we are discussing. The rule of thumb is 12 month post launch before targets come into play.

Apologies I didn't explain this very well.

Spike, I am not an accountant but have a basic understanding how SBTX effects some aspects of OPTI balance sheet. Both SOH and TW claim the real cash burn is £440k, not £1.1m.

SOH explains the "hidden" cash in the interview yesterday. Although he didn't explain how much and like a chump I didn't press him, he did confirm the real cash figure is greater than the reported £1.24m.

Sorry, but you have just demonstrated you don't get it. Perhaps this is partly my fault for not explaining or trusting the Q&A I did with SOH would have adequately explained the H1 anomaly.

Clues to perceived low revenues in H1:

Online store wasn't fully functional until September 2018, thus c2 months revenues
No revenues could be booked for CholBiome or CholBiome x3 OR Muesli pots because these are post period launches.

The H1 £300k comes from where? Not the company, this and other much higher figures were PI speculation. I was hopeful of £300k, but FY was always c£1m hopeful of plus. We are told this remains on target.

Of course on a few of the 44 agreements are generating revenues and most of these are small first movers. The much larger agreements are yet to come on stream. Gallenicum is the largest of these, and yet they only launch in late October 2018, again outside the period accounted for.

The SBTX sale has been earmarked for a small acquisition, which may or may not come off. It's not designed to strengthen the balance sheet. Again, this is post period and doesn't show in yesterdays accounts.

Existing deals have recurring £1m plus revenues which will be growing, more so as more agreements come on stream, like the 2 or 3 retail launches, possibly as early as Jan 2020.

You, like so many have forgot to strip out the £5m market value in you valuation of OPTI market cap, v revenues. Its a really basic error but all too often ignored by the naysayers in particular.

So yes, you have proven you do not get it.

Your 8p is folly. Revenues are H2 weighted, we have known this for a long time. The prediction is for 5-6 previous H1.

There are 2, possibly 3 retails launches in 2020, one is expect perhaps as early as January. This alone is worth c£5-6m pa. If all 3 come home then we are looking at something like £15m. All to the bottom. Seed Health alone is worth £1m pa once it has completed its global foot print expansion, perhaps c12 months from now. But they are generating funds now.

For now we have to put up with foolish comment about unqualified price predictions of 8p etc, and read nonsense about cash burn being £1.2m for in H1 when it is actually £440k because they haven't grasped the relationship with SBTX has on OPTI accounts, which are none cash related. Plus the howls of bailout placing ahoy because the same fools can't do the maths and or simply don't realise OPTI ACTUALLY HAS MORE CASH IN THE BANK than FRS15 allows the company to post in the accounts.

Such is the life of the BBM with too much time on his hands and not enough brain-cells to keep even the one occupied.

I suspect it much simpler than you think....you have perhaps misunderstood the work involved in building the foundations of a B2B model. Many of OPTI partners are multi-billion $ corps. There is a lot of regulatory work both OPTI and their partner needs to do before even production of a potential product can start. There will be production test runs, in-house taste and texture tests, probably soft launches to test consumer demand. Its a long process working within the food, dairy and beverage industry.

You need to remember the company is still transitioning from an R&D company, which only started in late 2017 and no real momentum was gained until late 2018 and continues today.

I think its fair to say most investors (including me) perhaps underestimated how long it takes the larger corporate to produce an end product.

The on-line store and home brand product are a means to promote the IP while at the same time bringing in high margin revenues reducing cash burn. Even so, this did not pick up momentum until September 2018, hence exceptionally low revenues from home brand products like GoFigure and in fact, CholeBiome sales are not even in H1 accounts.

2020/21 will be a light-bulb moment for the naysayers.

AIM is a cesspit of short term traders and its getting worse because its not policed by the regulators so fewer investors and more traders because there is little trust in AIM BODs these days.

SOH, like AR and TW, et al, would have put their own money in for the IPO.

I find it odd you accuse SOH of pump and dump when he has always played down revenues and refused to speculate on them, a lesser CEO would have made outlandish claims for the future. A common theme on AIM.

Why? What has changed? The company hasn't missed guidance, in fact, it maintains revenues will be c£1m plus at FY followed by a number of new agreements coming on stream including at least two retail listings, possibly a third.

I think the B2B model is catching a few peeps out.

https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2019/08/optibiotix-health-black-wednesday-h1.html

Listen to OptiBiotix CEO chat with Stephen O'Hara by lemming investors on #SoundCloud
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236/optibiotix-ceo-chat-with

https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1165591654432215040?s=19

Screen grabs courtesy of AJS.