Member Info for elrico

https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2020/11/optibiotix-health-update-overview.html?m=1

More than 6 months I would argue. Whether that has been a realistic position is another. Post-FY audited accounts, IMHO, and even then I suspect we need to be surprised on the historical multiplier - not unrealistic given the record H1 and what we know historically H2 contributes. If this goes the way I ''HOPE'' then the wider market will look forward with more confidence. There are a number of events to look forward to, which included NASDAQ duel listing is this is the route the company goes...It needs too for obvious reasons.

Not to be confused with distributing presently.

https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/search?q=Pierce

I recorded a podcast with Pierce chairman 5 months ago. It is well worth a listen if you have not already done so. Mike makes a bold prediction. You will not know Mike as I do - he is not the type of fellow to boast, he prefers to allow the business development to do the talking.
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236/mike-mcgeever-on-pierce-esim?in=user-957798193-127487236/sets/m-mcgeever

If my old grey is not confused....SOH suggested headcount increase should be offset with lower R&D. The new addition to management does not arrive in her post until Jan, again, if memory serves.

Ref pretax profit for FY2020. This is my minimum expectation. I live in hope SOH surprises the market with something resembling a TU that beats market expectations. Oh, wait, if we exclude Goetz report there isn't any market expectation for FY2020...not officially.

FWIW, (not much I guess ;) I think the market will be pleased with the direction of travel the recurring revenues are going. We had a big hint in the TU for the first half. Royalties are mainly H2, while H1 is largely made up of what I can low grade raw ingredient revenues. Nevertheless, those seeds should flower into record royalties in H2, and with Alfa and Optipharm launching late into H1 and early H2 respectively, H1 2021 should see a significant boost to revenues again.

I don't wish to come across as rude, but you do come across as someone that has little understanding of the growing pains of a fledgeling company. As any company grows (we hope) its needs change, as does its strategy on occasions. Once upon a time SOH also said we do not need to rise for our existing strategy. However, up stepped to huge opportunities within weeks. H&B and Optipharm. OPTI needed to sell down some SBTX to insure working capital and offer assurance the company was not going to fail to deliver on its product. SBTX is experiencing the same. Both companies have a choice...hold off of moving forward until royalties improve or risk losing the opportunity presented to them. You either trust both BOD's to do the right thing for the company and shareholders or you do not.

I grant you this....the talk of an in-specie divi was premature and should never have been mentioned. That said, I am sure most of us appreciate the asset now on the OPTI books and don't mind forgoing a divi until much later when the potential value will be much greater.

I do not think anyone with an ounce of common sense would argue OPTI will not be impacted by the global pandemic. To what degree is exceptionally difficult to quantify. You may not fully appreciate the business model and that of OPTI's partners, which are 80 or so. Most are ''Intel Inside'' partners, of which the bulk of products are readily available online, as well as in-stores. H&B in-store footfall will have fallen off a cliff, even though they have special dispensation to remain open during the national lockdown. However, online footfall increased by more than 300%, a higher rate than an in-store drop. This can be replicated across online with the right strategy.

You also seem to be ignoring more and more products are now swamping the markets, so even inside local NHS via physicians, pharmacies, etc. OPTI's products are designed to improve health in a variety of ways, a very important growth area at any time, more so now. With more lockdowns around the world, more and more dietary products will be consumed. Many people will still be attempting to lose weight from the previous lockdown, so will not welcome another series of lockdowns. Gyms will remain open this time, which is great news. Some of OPTI's partners are now manufacturing protein shakes with added SlimBiome in them. A great idea and gym bunnies do tend to share new product idea's with friends.

SOH is on record saying it has been easier to Zoom rather than jet-set around the globe, a cost-saving of sorts.

I think your view is too simplistic and pessimistic.

IMHO OPTI will BE at least at FY20. I would wager a small pretax profit with a growing net cash position, which will set the company up very nicely for what I hope will be a NASDAQ duel listing in early 2021. OPTI will be a different animal next year.

A company I am involved with, Pierce will have a major say in the coming weeks and months that will set OPTI up exceptionally well. That I have no fear or doubt of. I suggest you look closely at the guys running Pierce; David Battiston, David Cronin and Mike McGeever, the latter 2 are on the board at AVA Risk Group. Check how they have turned that company around in such a short time. Battiston set up Airmiles and Nectar Card. These guys are no mugs.

Finally, McGeever set up TransGaurd Group with 12 staff, sold 11 years later with 55,000. What does this little bit of info suggest to you?

Hi Dactions,

Forgive me, only inexperienced investors have been expecting the inflexion point c18 months ago. i accept this may not be your POV, but I do speak anecdotally. Many forget OPTI's first 2-3 years were about developing IP/patents, and then protecting them and backing them up with science, peer reviews and multiple studies. Only after these first major steps have been completed can OPTI begin to develop first-mover partners. But even before developing royalty-earning products production partners like Sacco, Cambridge, etc need to be signed up.

Over the past 2 years, we have seen larger corps signing up, moreover, the later partners are establishing royalty routes much quicker. The latest, possibly the largest agreement to-date, Optipharm too just 5 months to reformulate and launch 5 products. This is a key change, much the same we have seen with Alfasigma. The science and products, be it LP-LDL or SlimBiome are now becoming more accepted because of the awards, scientific validation, GRAS, FDA and brand building. This means partners are now more likely to reformulate rather than develop a new product. I am not saying this will be the norm overnight, but the signs are encouraging.

The fact H1 revenues were comparable to FY 2019 clearly demonstrates the direction of travel revenue building is travelling. The issue we have is the old argument, ''beware of companies using H2 weighted excuse as this is usually a tactic to buy time'' a trait I have seen many AIM BOD's employs over the years. However, OPTI has a clear history of H2 revenues being 4/5/6 times H1. This being the period the lion's share of royalties is paid. Given the H2 warning, this implies there are many holding onto this warning until there is greater visibility. IMHO FY 2020 will surprise investors even with the covid disruption. Most if not all OPTI partners sell via online anyway, so I really don't see Covid being a major factor. Most of H&B stores remained open because health stores have a special dispensation. Nevertheless, it also reported a 300% plus increase in online sales. Surely this trend will be replicated across OPTI partners.

SOH says more and more partners are seeking more product and expanding their product portfolio. I have not seen any evidence of this. Hopefully, these are material enough to warrant a reach RNS SOON?

I know many HNWI and none of them has ever reported to being approached for loan stock. I am not saying it doesn't happen though.

This is the sort of nonsense we have to endure. An already wealthy individual reported being worth C50m is allowed in at the 8p IPO and nicely wrapped up in a tax-sheltered vehicle and now seeks to use SP to spoof lemmings into selling. The obvious question is has Potts opened a SB sell as a hedge and seeks to help this along by throwing around funding required with gay-abandon?

Before any TW/SP troll jumps to conclusions, I am not suggesting a short conspiracy aided by TW/SP. I will leave that BS to the BBM's that ignore TW/SP many warnings about corupt BOD's dipping their hands into PI pockets.

It is Christopher Potts. 100%. Yes, the same Potts that was fined by the FSA ;

Potts has been selling privileged position in (IPO) OPTI because he WRONGLY argues OPTI will need a fundraising. I spoke to SOH about this. SOH comments can be read https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2020/10/optibiotix-health-no-placing-ahoy-fact.html

I believe Potts a good friend of TW. TW also argues no placing.
Old news
Evolution has also paid £150,000 to investors who lost out as a result of its trading activities in Room Service, a company listed on the Alternative Investment Market which has since changed its name to Azure.

The FSA said the level of the fine had been set not only to deprive the company and its employee of any gains but also to act as a "powerful incentive" to deter other firms from similar activity.

"The FSA expects firms and individuals to ensure their business activities do not interfere with the smooth operation of the market or unfairly damage the interests of investors, and the FSA will not hesitate to take action in any instance where this occurs," said Andrew Proctor, the director of enforcement.

Evolution said it had "reluctantly" decided to accept the fine because it wanted to end the investigation.

"Evolution feels it is unfortunate that it has taken an incident such as this to help produce a clear understanding of the definition of market abuse," the stockbroker said in a statement.

The regulator said that Evolution Beeson Gregory, through Mr Potts, implemented a strategy to sell more shares in Room Services than were in existence.

The stockbroker sold the Room Service shares "short" - that is, it did not own them but expected to be able to buy the stock later on at a lower price - between September 25 and October 21 2003.

By the time the share selling exercise had finished, more than 250% of the issued share capital of Room Service had been sold to investors and the broker was unable to deliver shares to 250 investors who had bought them.

The FSA said the shares had been sold to investors in the expectation that Room Services would issue new shares following an annual meeting in October 2003.

That annual meeting would have allowed Evolution Beeson Gregory to provide the shares to investors who had bought them.

But the FSA concluded that the behaviour of Evolution and Mr Potts amounted to distortion and market abuse.

The regulator acknowledged that the firm had made good the losses to Room Service shareholders and that the abusive behaviour by Mr Potts could have been avoided if the firm had had limits on short positions.
www.theguardian.com/business/2004/nov/13/2

Strictly speaking, not true....the SP often falls on the back of an RNS.

Hi Trek,

I take your point with ref to microbiome, but it is there.

I am at odds with your cash call with regards OPTI. Just £3m since IPO, and then the revenues comment. This I agree with to a degree, but I am sure of the period in which your point refers to. I think it's fair to say OPTI developed revenues 18-24 months later than MOST PI's expected, but that is not the same as OPTI promising.

I am learning all the time with regards the science 4D platforms have. However, pharma routes are notorious for high failure rates, especially toxicity. 4D looks good in this regard, so some serious mitigation here.

If I had a complaint about 4D it would be the priority apportioning funds to the most likely success and build from there. I agree it has multiple shots at goal, but the stadia has proved expensive for retail investors with something like £167m raised since listing.

I will have a look at ONC.

Older but not wise, for sure. The article wasn't about skincare, it was as well as and the microbiome and how two very different companies approach it for our wellbeing. It also put some BS in its rightful place and it was written without the purpose of confirmation bias some fragile investors seem the need to suckle on.

Have you ever heard of critical thought or did the leftwaffe beat it out of you at University?

I am heartbroken you have filtered me one my very first post. Wow, you must be super fragile.

That would be very welcome...assuming positively.

For those of you than don't mind a serious discussion...
https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2020/08/4d-pharma-v-optibiotix-apples-pears-bbm.html

https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2020/08/optibiotix-health-further-extends.html

STEPHEN O'HARA PODCASTS PLAYLIST
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236/sets/optibiotix-health-ceo-stephen

STUART ASHMAN PODCAST PLAYLIST
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236/sets/skinbiotherapeutics-podcasts

An even more revealing interview if I do say so myself. :)

https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1290312137206902784

NASDAQ costs, requirements, market cap, revenues are myths. Most retail investors don't even realise there is more than one level to NASDAQ listing. The listing OPTI is aiming are comparable costs to the AIM cesspit listing. All this was covered in a recent podcast with SOH.

#OPTI
@WellBiome1 a new product gaining serious traction.

Top Story on Nutrition Insight based on the WellBiome PR sent out earlier today.

Fibre & mineral synergy: Optibiotix’s functional ingredient boosts microbiome diversity

https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1288185087536910336