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Morning Market,
Lovely to hear from you, as always, and please don't worry about the previous post.
I think you are right ref no immediate ST news but with this share's recent performance just having no more bad news is good news. Notwithstanding significant moves in the gold price, for me if mgmt can just deliver what they have now laid out, and even more so if they can do so with slight higher prod and lower AISC and all ahead of schedule, then we should see a slow rise in 2021, accelerating in the second half as we get closer to the end of the pain period. As someone put it the other day, with a 5-6% dividend, current investors in Centamin are being paid to wait.
With regards to director buys I guess the window between news is not big so they buy when they can, provided they think the price is good. I do wish our new CEO would put his hands a little deeper in his pockets and buy a significant slug of shares at the price. That would give me real confidence.
Keep well and have a wonderful Christmas.
Very best wishes,
Prof
Thanks all for your responses ref Leon and the options. I was very nervous given all I could find ref shares was the 2013 purchase which Smose also mentioned. If he has been taking options in lieu of salary and has 30million of them then I can see why he would not have bought shares as well even if he really believes in the company. Between Colin and him they do indeed to have the significant 'skin in the game' that you would expect to see if the story looked as good from the inside as it did from the outside.
Thanks again to everyone for your kind responses.
Best wishes,
Prof
I can see Colin is holding loads of shares but can't find a reference to how many Leon currently has. Does anyone know this info please?
Thanks,
Prof
Thank you all for your response to my question ref downside risk. It is really helpful to hear what you have all flagged and why each one is not unduly bothering you. I guess the one that worries me the most from what has been listed is the patent expiring at the end of the year. I take the point ref it will take competition a while to learn who to capitalise on it but is there not a risk that large miners, for example Barrick, would invest the time and effort to master it given the returns it could generate for them?
Not withstanding the above am definitely going to buy some more JLP. My only hesitation is ST timing given the awesome increase in the past week.
Thanks again to everyone for taking the time to share your views and knowledge.
Best wishes,
Prof
Love what I am seeing with JLP having bought in at 7.90 and seen a beautiful and quick rise since then.
Seriously tempted to buy some more but am made nervous by the fact everyone is so euphoric about the company but there is no mention of the downside risk. Clearly price of PGM is a risk although also an opportunity if it rises.
What are the barriers to entry to other companies doing the same thing? Does JLP own the IP on the technology they are using or do they at least have exclusivity agreements or does someone else who could licence it to a competitor? What downside other downside risks does anyone see?
Thanks for your thoughts.
Best wishes,
Prof
Marmot, ,
And the actual numbers have come in worse than that: 245k vs the expected 478k.
Should be good for gold as the dust settles.
Best wishes,
Prof
I am saddened to see the abuse that Sotolo is getting on this board including from some poster who I respect.
Opposite views are to be welcome even and perhaps in particular when they may be frightening.
Please let us all revert to the courteous and mature nature of conversations that have traditionally been the mark of this board.
Best wishes to all,
Prof
Will the share price fall tomorrow on the news? Possibly.
Do I read anything sinister into the sale? No. If I owned 50% of a £1.2bn company that was worth less than half a bn earlier in the year then I would consider taking some money off the table. The current share price is the result of POG and that could fall. The fact that gold has fallen from 2070 to 1770 in a few months shows how volatile it is. He will still own over third of the company.
Best wishes,
Prof
Sold last week at 110 because was nervous on gold's movements and also on today's announcement. Have bought some back this morning on the basis of the neutral to good RNS. Still worried about's gold's trend but like the clear and controlled tone of the RNS.
Hi Ant,
You are welcome.
I think the price of gold is key at the moment.
02 Dec will also be interesting.
My expectation is that, leaving movement in gold aside, we should see a good move up in CEY in the second half of 2021 provided they show good progress in Q321 figures and make positive noises about 2022 being well on the way to a return to 500k (475k or above I like to think would do it).
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Ant,
Real back of a fag packet numbers but I think they go as follows:
$1700 gold price (just using your number)
$1250 AISC (think is what CEY are calling for next year
$450 profit per ounce
415k oz to be mined (taking mid-point of their forecast)
Generates $186M profit
Profit is split 50/50 with EMRA means $93M left.
If Cey distribute 30% which is there stated minimum then than is $31M for us shareholders.
Happy to be corrected by anyone who sees any glaring mistakes in the above workings accepting also that I am doing all numbers from memory so could be wrong on some.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Freedom,
I am afraid that we don't know what the dividend will be for the coming year. It is fairly safe to say that the market does not expect 12c as with the current exchange rate of £1 = $1.33 that would indeed be a 9% yield.Unless the market expected disaster thereafter then the share price suggests a lower expectation.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi ASME,
Welcome to posting on the Board. I agree it is well informed and, generally, professional and friendly place.
You did very well selling out in August.
Provided 02 Dec has no further disappointment and subject of course to the price of gold staying strong, which I believe economics suggest it should, then I share your views ref the future. I would expect the rest of the year to see a weak SP with it gradually recovering strength throughout 2021 as Centamin hit quarterly production figures. I would expect most of the 2021 rise to be later in the year once the heavy stripping is done and quarterly production ceases to be so anaemic. 2022 will depend on how far off the 500k p.a we are. Management have already said it will take 3 years to get back to it but a 2022 of around 475k would be good.
Sotolo would agree wholeheartedly with your point ref the high 2021 AISC hurting us, a view I share too.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Razors,
I am here!
Good news and an interesting week in the offering.
Best wishes,
Prof
Thanks Sotolo. Anything in particular that makes you feel gold is in for a big fall or is it just nervousness because of the size of your holding here?
I too am nervous that it could but the size of the money printing of late, deficits and national debts suggest, that the economic forces should keep gold strong.
Best wishes,
Prof
Sotolo,
Thanks for your thoughts. Like you (I think) I believe gold should hold good or even increase but worry it might not.
Perhaps that is normal particularly if you have a lot of money tied up in miners.
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Sotolo,
You are right I should have added in my explanation to Sense on the CEY board that AISC was up. I was in a rush though and took that as given with a falling production. I should have been explicit as I agree with you.
What do you make of HOC's rapid 5% rise yesterday afternoon with a broadly flat gold and silver price and then a fall back today to where it was before that 5% increase?
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Sense,
The reduced forecast production for Q420 on the back of the slide caused the drop from c200p to 147p then recovering to c160p. There was then a reduction in production forecast for 2021 to 415-430k which caused the drop from 160s to 130s. The route cause it insufficient stripping over the past few years which is now going to take a few years to remedy with production not anticipated to get back to c500k for 3 years (I assume that means 2023). The drop from 130s to low 110s is based on the fall in the price of gold with CEY getting hit worse than most presumably on the current lack of confidence in the company. Life of Mine review due on 02 Dec which we are all waiting for with bated breath. Exploration licences for new areas in Egypt also likely to be announced anytime soon.
Hope that helps,
Best wishes,
Prof
Good Morning Mr Bond,
I don't know why you have such an issue with Sotolo. He has been posting on this board for many years. He sometimes views the share price as being overvalued and sometimes undervalued. Given that in the last few years that share price has oscillated between 30p and 230p I think it is fair to say the true value of the company, not withstanding large movements in the gold price and other factors, such as the current production issues, has not always been accurately reflected by the market.
If all this board becomes is a grouping of people all saying that the share price will go up then we might as well pack it in and go home (or turn off our computers and use the time more productively). I have a very large holding in CEY. I had an even larger holding when we were at 230 which I did not sell because I was positive about gold and expected us to move to 250p this year and 300 next year. I did not sell when we dropped to 147, then recovered to 164, because the 'slippage' that caused a drastic reduction in Q420 production seemed contained and time bound. In short I expected 2021 to be back to normal and the share price to follow. The major reduction in 2021 production that was unveiled along with Q3 production worried me because I no longer knew what the mine was offering. I sold out significantly between 147 and 130. I have since bought some of those back in the 120s although sold a tranche of those yesterday on the gold price collapse. I might buy some back today if gold continues to look more solid. I worry that the life of mine review due to be unveiled on 02 Dec might contain some future horrible news however hope that it won't. I also hold out hope that we will hear positive news about new licences in the near future.
In short I don't know what is going to happen. If you pushed me on it I would say CEY share price will remain weak for the remainder of this year and early next but then recover strongly through 2021 as the production meets the reduced targets and positive progress is made towards getting the mine back to 500k oz p.a. from 2023 onwards with a forecast for 2022 not too far off that figure. If gold makes good progress too in 2021, which I expect it to do as the economic impact of the current round of money printing (I think we call it QE nowadays) starts to be felt, then that would also help the share price.
Sotolo does not know what is going to happen either. He posts his views, not to ramp or deramp, but to share them and generate debate. I, for one, welcome that.
Best wishes and good luck with this wild share that is Centamin.
Prof
Hi Sotolo,
Thank you for sharing your thoughts so comprehensively; you sum up the factors that will dictate the direction of theme in gold really well.
Interesting to see the Dow fall off at the end of the day. Would not be surprised to see Europe open lower as they pull back from today's meteoric rise and also take their lead from the Dow's late adjustment. If gold/silver looking reasonably steady in the morning then might delve back in on HOC. Let us see what the morning brings.
Best wishes,
Prof