Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
No worries, especially in current times of extreme irrationality in the markets, TA plays an important role in analysis.
65p seems to be the resistance (ceiling) since we began our bullish trend in April. We've tried to surpass it 3 times, all of which failed (it did pierce it on the 2nd-3rd of December for a few hours, but not substantially enough to classify it as a breakout.
Personally (JMO), if I were trading this share, I'd be buying at current prices with a stop loss at around 57.5-58p - with a strong buy after support has been found at the 65p level.
From a technical analysis POV, BWNG is a buy (bought my maximum amount from the rights issue.)
From its 10p bottom in April, there's been a strong line of resistance (higher highs but more importantly higher lows) which mirrors closely to the 50 MA. There's also a beginning of a change of the trend rotation of the 200 MA from bearish to bullish, with the price oscillator showing a bullish + pattern with the 50/200 MA. Should the trend from April continue in the same fashion as it has done, a solid floor of resistance of 70p will be formed in February.
Has anyone received their additional shares through their broker yet? I'm still yet to receive anything
@clemoc
The broker link should’ve told you the amount you’re permitted to buy but I believe it was 11 for every 18 owned - I’ve been out for a while but decided to take up the offer, especially as the raise has been underwritten by Alliance
@sak
$38 a barrel? Ludicrous. OPEC+ and oil analysts expect production quotas to remain restricted until after Q1 2021. Saudi runs OPEC and they know that ramping up production without the simultaneous demand will do way more harm than good
@tawse
Yeah I think the bull case is solely fuelled on vaccine positive news at the moment. This is all well and good but requires constant updates to fuel the bull rally, whereas globally the macro-climate is otherwise consistently bearish with Rising C-19 cases, Brexit, US election transitions, lack of state diplomacy etc.
Nothing to intrinsically worry about NEX, the capital raise will help improve the balance sheet whilst we simultaneously remain EBITDA positive and scale nicely into a post Covid transport environment. As for the reasons mentioned in the above para, don’t be surprised to see the SP make volatile movements and even hefty dips, but I don’t think there’s too much to worry about in the mid-long term
All IMO, could definitely be wrong! ATB
@Athletio
Yeah agreed. Liquidity is strong, currently £1.5B in cash and remained EBITDA positive throughout the year. A short term capital raise, as you said, to see through short term volatility which I expect is still jet to come - but what is much more likely is that we come out stronger in 2021 with a good scaling and healthy business
@jwd
I advise you to do your own analysis - everyone here is only speculating
Trump helped form OPEC+ and improved relations between Russia and OPEC which was, and still is, a necessity for crude oil and our SP.
The problem with Trump is that he’s just generally a detestable person, incredibly arrogant and void of empathy. No leader qualities in him whatsoever.
Biden, for all his floors, is way more diplomatic and likely to bring needed stability to the world - way less volatile of a human
GLA for 8am
No worries! It was a down day for stocks (at least for most of mine anyway!) but it seems like the market didn’t hate the idea. Hopefully tomorrow we’ll get a clearer picture.
As stated, I prefer this capital raise technique to a blanket equity raise as my shares aren’t diluted this way - ATB
Refinanced loan that creditors hold* - sorry out and about so typed in a rush
The RNS, as it appears to me, is a hybrid capital raise. It’s basically a refinanced loan that debtors hold and will be paid a coupon for holding it. The coupon is marked as a distribution (similar to a dividend) to existing equity holders and is adjusted under earnings per share.
The main thing is that there’s no direct equity raise, meaning current shareholders won’t be diluted in terms of ordinary shares, but it does mean that we’ll be paying essentially a ‘dividend’ to the creditors for the value of the coupon.
This is imo the much preferred option as even within the most difficult trading year to date for NEX, they’ve still generated a net positive EBITDA so should have no troubles paying the coupon.
Hope this helps anyone!
I’m also sitting on a small profit from a WTI oil ETF - a great hedge against the $ but also a clear multibagger due to pent up demand - oil is here to stay for the time being despite the renewable energy smokescreen that is being displayed by politicians
@oyster
I share your optimism with the overall increase in oil price with the OPEC+ cuts. I don’t share extensive worries about an oil spike. The main concern short term for me would be Libya and their additional oil flooding the market - seeing them disregard OPEC guidelines - additionally any sanctions that the Biden administration lift from Iran will see an increase in legal Iranian oil within the market.
OPEC knows that oil demand will recover substantially, maybe sooner than one may be lead to believe, but balancing supply and demand I imagine will be quite challenging
ATB
I think being in the market is a safer option than trying to time the perfect buy in price. We’ve all seen the impact of vaccine news - any positive news relating to an increase in global positive macro sentiment will send undervalued stocks up further
@kiev
I think tech stocks are due a correction, of which FAANG make up roughly 20% of the weighted value for the American indexes. Any short term correction here to 220 will be incredibly short term, seeing as 235+ seems to be the new resistance as of this week
Yeah this week has only shown the glimpse of what a successful vaccine would mean for the SP, as well as general oil demand. If OPEC+ plays ball with the production cuts and Biden can get the US cases under control - I see no reason why the SP shouldn't sit comfortably at 300p by Jan/Feb.