Member Info for elir71

@nookie, good timing. I think a lot less risky in terms of missing out now we know not to expect imminent (next couple of days) confirmation. I did something similar a few weeks ago. The nearer the expected assay results then the riskier it becomes, unless you plan to await the results before making an investment , a considerably derisked investment. If you look at Savannah resources, the main rise came a good few trading hours after and continued for some days, as opposed to in anticipation of exposure to good news. It does beg the question, is it worth exposing your portfolio to the potential downside for the benefit of a relatively small advantage in upside prior to the news ?

What is the significance of the 1 in Concentrate 1 ?

@Bamps It was not "random" samples, samples were taken from specific areas which are shown on a 3d visualisation which the company published. It includes ore that was on the floor from previous mining.

It's just to check that the process works as opposed to getting a representative sample. The grades are not yet ascertainable.

@valuefinder
I'm expecting the posp alone will produce a viscose product if cutter solvent is not left in it. With msar then I think full solvent recovery is possible and end user read product produced.

@bamps
The rns states 'small sample'

@noobz re news expectation
I'm expecting some news on the progress of drilling. Confirmation that veins exist below the past llechfraith workings is significant.

@indigo
Utah is the most probable to commercial fruition

If they sign up Utah for production then I'm OK with them going for placings

You know there is an accelerator clause on the 0.55p warrants, if the SP is over 1.1p for 10 trading days, then the warrant holders are obliged to exercise.

The warrants and convertibles that bergen has were offloaded as they wished to crystallise their profits and make use of the capital for their next project. They're not in the business of medium term exposure on their clients business.

Other warrants have imminent exercise prices.

@Jim
with respect to your strategy of selling after favourable assay to buy back in following 2021 £2m placing, I'd point out some pitfalls.

Whereas you are correct in stating that some weak holders may be shaken out of the tree following a placing and the SP behaviour tends to overreact, its often accompanied by big spreads, which tighten with stability .... so it punishes the weak holders , without rewarding "faithful" buyers.

Although I beleive the stock to be presently very undervalued, I don't necessarily believe that favourable assay results will send the share into the realms of where I think it can be by the end of the year. There are a number of steps, which include very significantly the planning conditions to the mine's reopening after the various impact statements.

I'd also look at the broader gold belt as a separate project and Gwynfynydd as a separate project because each of them are at very different stages of development.

I can't accept statements such as "obviously they will need more". If you quantify your figures then its something I am happy to discuss. How much do you think is needed on mine development to bring Clogau into production ? I think your assessment of the present cash situation is reasonably accurate. You'll notice from the RNS where the last placing was announced that the reasons given were to fund the actions necessary for beginning production at Clogau and to further explore Amitsoq which in only one season away from JORC.

Its likely that there will be some income from warrants expiring at the end of March, which with at the current SP have intrinsic value. Other warrants expire in late 2021. Combined that should raise over another £1,096,000 .

What would be useful to know, is what budgets are allocated to each project for 2021. I may write to the company for an indication of that, however, I am not hopeful for a meaningful response.

Much of the mine remendiation at Clogau has already been carried out. The main physical expense remaining at Clogau wil be dewatering Llechfraith and probably some remediation at those levels. These are the areas where reportedly visible gold was apparent, and the current drilling is confirming the presence of ore body structures below these levels. I expect the dewatering to happen this year following the timely receipt of consents. I'm not expecting that an adit be driven to the parallel newly discovered parallel vein structure discovered recently. However, as I understand it, it is only 30m away.

You mention that you're looking for a .40 ish entry position, you may be able to achieve this before the assay results if you use fill orders. You may even be able to buy in following the results , albeit at a higher price, but with considerable risk taken out of the project. With thinnly traded stocks then its entirely possible that the share price does not react immediatly in response to news, especially as new money would be required to bring normal demand to deplete MM holdings. An example is in another stock that I'm invested in . The second paragraph makes interesting reading. https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/savannah-resources-lonsav-buy-sell-or-hold-168604/

I'm interested to hear your perspective on risks, however, bear in mind that the whole purpose of a bb as this is to share research and perspectives. Spreading sentiment, either positive or negative with the sole intent of manipulating others into actions contrary to their interests for one's own gain is unacceptable and squalid.

Much of the rehabilitation work has been done at the Clogau St David's mine, bar the lower Llechfraith levels. So I dont see a massive investment needed, its certainly within Alba's current liquidity.

Out of interest Jim ... how much cash to you think Alba have at their disposal at present ?

@Jim
you're quire right about the premissions being non trivial. If you want to see some examples, then check out Scotgold's documents on their site. There will be impact assessments of various sorts to be completed. GF would be well aware of that yet still maintains that the mine will be productive by the end of the year and he does not have a reputation for making statments that are overly optimistic.

You should also consider that there is a potential income stream from horse hill ( or at least some capital from its potential disposal)

All these projects have inherent unknowns and risks, but, as far as I can see, those risks are wll managed.

How much, by your estimation would be required for this year's exploration ?

The placing just before Christmas raised a reasonable amount of funds £1,200,000 ref RNS 4514G
That should be enough to bring the mine into production, though I do view GF's plan to become operational by the end of 2021 as ambitious. I'm expecting another £1,096,900 from warrants in the money but expiring this year too.

Budgets for this year's exploration and development would be a good question to put to the bod. The value from placings has become a lot more favourable since the new brokers have been appointed.

I've a general non Alba specific ongoing gripe about PIs being excluded from placings , losing pre emption rights , ISA nominiee disenfranchisements etc etc

I shouldn't be concerned at the warrants being exercised. If you missed it, then there's a spreadsheet I did quantifying outstanding warrants. There's a pile expiring end of march, but I'd expect very good sentiment just prior to that.

Just buy in 500,000 chunks over the course of the day

Exchange market size 500,000 shares

132000 barrels to date ....am i correct in understanding that means ever, as opposed to since reperforation
Does anyone know how many bopd ? I know there are some people who live nearby monitoring the tankers movements from there.

Im expecting a strong positive news flow over the Q1 and Q2 :-
confirmation of production
increasing production figures
confirmation of dispatch of sample to QFI
QFI sample received
QFI lab work complete, formulation done
confirmation of achieveing 500 bopd (by end of Feb 2021)
confirmation of date of on site demonstration of MSAR module
report of successful MSAR test
MSAR licence agreement
Confirmation of commencement of POSP5000 x2 construction