Member Info for elir71

Source https://www.albamineralresources.com/ul/20180502%20RNS%20Grant%20of%20Options%20and%20Warrants.pdf

"Michael Nott (Non-Executive Director):

12 million share warrants vesting 31/12/18 at an exercise price of 0.42p and an expiration date of 27 March 2021. These share warrants are not issued pursuant to the EMI scheme.

Management and Consultants:

A further 35 million share warrants are being awarded to management and consultants of the Company, also at an exercise price of 0.42p and an expiry date of 27 March 2021, with varying vesting dates."

That's this week's trading until expiry

"Dont expect hard and fast news."
>> I expect news on assay results within the next 10 days as promised by the BOD
>> I expect news on permission to dewater Llechfraith roughly in the next month
>> Greenland's travel restrictions are to be reviewed 18th April which would open the way for further exploration of Amistoq and Thule Black Sands this year

"This is a slow burner"
>> Whereas some projects have a longer horizon to proven resource (Melville Bay, Inglefield), Amistoq is one season away from being a proven resource ripe for JV or at least take off agreement, TBS perhaps a year longer
>> Graphite is in demand and EV manufacturers have publicy sought new supply lines of raw material
>> I would point out that once an offtake agreement is in place then (non equity) finance may be far more accessible. I base this on bluejay's recent experience at Dundas, the neighbouring resource to Thule Black Sands
>> Clogau St Davids horizon to exploitation licence is 18 months according to GF which would fit in with a similar timescale that Scotgold has recently experienced. (Gold mine in national park)
>> I would imagine that there would be media interest and coverage on news from Clogau

"Please prove me wrong"
>> we'll see on 1st April

"It's a good play"
>> agreed

"but a really long term one"
>> I'd imagine revenue generating in about 18 months (not counting Horse Hill which may be sooner with the new vertical wells) and self sustaining in about 24 months with production from Amitsoq (or its disposal). I speculate that there will be some SP action in anticipation of this as risk lowering milestones are reached
>> Some projects have longer horizons than others, which you can look at as a positive as there is a potential for asset apprectiation through exploration for at least the next 5 years. When cash rich, I would hope ALBA would look at aquiring more preJORC resources in Greenland

"Better to make profits on other miners and get back in"
>> Diversification of portfolio is a good risk mitigation strategy as disaster can hit any company, but unlikely to hit all companies at the same time. Being out of ALBA in the very near term where news flow is likely is for investors who dont want exposure to the upside of that news or the possibility of a downside to that news. There's no right or wrong, its really about the individual's risk reward profile.
>> Even after a substantial upward rerate then ALBA, in my opinion is still a good long term investment as the assets are undervalued, routes to JVs for exploitation are credible, readily apparent and done before by others.
>> Other miners ... Junior miners are inherently risky.

"Price will be crawled down even further in the coming week"
>> There seems to be substantial support at 0.32 as six market makers had been quoting that on Friday. I think the SP will move rather rapidly on substantial news. The week may start quietly, but I suspect it won't end that way

I came accross this with respect to getting a ball park figure for sinking a shaft from the bottom of the existing Llechfraith shaft, extending it down to the newly confirmed vein extension

https://www.911metallurgist.com/mine-shaft-sinking-costs/

In the medium term when mcap greater than 100M then institutional investors will come on the horizon

My guess (and this is ony a guess) is that a new type of investor will be coming in to the market for Alba shares after some solid news is released. That sort of investor will be high net worth individuals who have discretionary accounts with brokers. That is, they place substantial capital with a broker who makes the individual investment decisions themselves. Examples of solid news are minewater discharge permits, assay results, talks with potential offtake partners. The sort of thing they will be attracted to is a quantification of limits on near to medium term placings and a clear road to self sustainability. Examples of other such shares in this category, though further advanced towards this are QFI and XSG, which I am also interested in. In the case of XSG then a swiss financial institution has been building equity stakes in it.

In the meantime support seems to be 0.32 -> 0.34 range. When the above happens to ALBA (when and not if) then that support level will rise significantly and gains on good news will not be followed by drifts downwards as the market will not be so readily influenced by shorted spread bets on thinly traded shares.

The days leading up to Easter may be very interesting

(just my guess)

@JoeNinety Every mineral exploration and exploitation mineral licences in Greenland are published on a Greenland government website, together with expiry dates and owners.

April 18th is when Greenland expect to announce changes to their travel restrictions.
It would be Alba's preference to use their own staff for exploration, but given that last year was written off in Greenland then they are keen to make progress. This particularly as Amitsoq is only 1 season away from JORC, and Thule Black Sands not far behind it (though the season is limited). GF has stated that he would engage Greenlandic staff to make some progress in the event that he cannot use Alba staff.

Why is it important. Because Greenland has some very promising prospects

In all fairness to FE, they produced the report in June 2020 and much has happened since then which includes the SP going from under 0.1p to 0.55p

Getting permissions for exploration and removing threats of dilution seems to have a lasting positive effect. Some factors are by their very nature subjective of course. What I think FE didnt take into account that some of the resouces are not unworked, they are proven mines (by the standard of the day. As such they should not be seen as entirely new prospects. Its not true of course for Limerick nor the non Amitsoq Greenland. Gwynfynydd wasn't in the mix at the time of FE report, and new finance was 6x more costly in terms of shares than it is now. I'm fully aware that such statements as "finance 6x more costly then, than now in terms of shares" does not have the emotive mass appeal of say, a video of GF slamming a 500g ingot stamped with "Clogau - St Davids 2021" on the table.

I'm happy to pay a reasonable broker fee when transactions are executed as an when I want. Also there's the ISA factor to take into account

@degsie
First Equity Research Note
https://www.albamineralresources.com/ul/Alba%20Mineral%20Resources%20Research%20Note%20-%20First%20Equity%20Limited%20(June%202020).pdf

My own https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xxuXY7-LZ-u78JtnD_llFt5vsEBA5eMThJcBj58Ck_g/edit?usp=sharing

@goldbar
I've not got a defninite answer to the plethora of tiny transactions either. As far as I am aware, they would have to come from commission free brokers such as Trading212. However, my toe dip experience of 212 is that orders no matter how small take ages to execute (rendering it useless for day trading) which was my originial intention with it. Another hypothesis was that spread betters were making micro transactions to fill the board "red" or "blue", to give the illusion of momentum of sentiment. Given the determined efforts of derampers on here and other places, then it would be a small investment of cash and effort to influence the unwary or nervous shareholder.

@Yanis, yes of course I believe the current share price is a gross underestimate of the fundamental value of ALBA, which , as you are doubtless aware has been my opinion for a considerable time, which I published at the turn of the year. Events which have resulted in upward sustained changes in value have been :- 1. ditching Bergen, 2. First Equity Research Note

I'm working on the assumption that the product is saleable, yes.
I've considerable faith that Greenfield will find customers
QFI's customer is Greenfield as QFI are selling the rights to use the MSAR making process as opposed to the end product

I realise that the 10p totally overestimates the net present value of the income stream from POSP500, however, I doubt Steve Byle will be sitting on his hands once its working. I believe the 10,000 bopd plants will be under construction in weeks and not months. I also think MSAR will be far more appealing once its being seen to be used commercially.

20% or so of the uplift in value for the product as a licence fee
... so for each unit of calorific value in the asphalt (for want of a better word)
20% of the change in value for the same amount of calorific value of msar made from the "asphalt"

I understand Petroteq are getting 4%?? for the use of their technology / plant

10p on commerical contract at Utah. I would expect samples from Utah received by end of March, Lab work done by end of April, Commercial demonstration by end of May with commercial contract starting about then

June July I expect MSC Lono trials to start that should give the share some legs too

Morocco should push things up a bit when that comes through (difficult to assess when)

RE Gold not quartz
It is entirely appropriate to talk of quartz structures as opposed to gold as the exploration's aim is to find structures. It would be jumping a step to say , to find gold. Personally I far rather someone who is factual and concise in his reports than some slick willy salesman type who hypes up exagerated and emotive statements. The facts will bear themselves out, as will the fundamentals. If as I expect the entirety of the lode to contain grades at 17 g Au / T which is the grade previously encountered from the totality of mining to date, then the value of the gold in the lodes investigated in the recently completed phase exceeds to market capitalisation of the company. It may not be salesey to report on discharge licences etc, however, these are all critical , rational steps to the build up to commercial extraction of gold.

As I've mentioned in the past .. look at Scotgold's journey

Greenland : why tie up capital in doing the mining when you've likes of EV manufacturers falling over themselves for Graphite ? (Amitsoq) A well proven resources is plenty to bring to the table.

@jacknose .... wish Mr008 would start blabbering on until my next payday

about 16000 oz .... but what's £15M between friends

to clarify thats per Tonne of quartz vein. Some non ore rock would need to be cut into to gain access, but the wider the ore body then the more ore per mining effort you get.