Member Info for Elguiri

‘i agree very sketchy defo got dodgy vibes from them two’

How have you survived the filter list this long?!

If nothing else, looks like breaking 1,000 posts here today. Wonder how many will still be here to see all this planning unfold.

Fair play panda, well explained. Hope to see you back here.

SP will remain depressed for the next year imo. Absolutely ideal situation, will keep adding as much as I can. Even if they pay the dividend towards the end of the year the bed wetters will still be scared of the unfamiliar.
The war will end at some point, the company will redomicile and split and I’ll retire at 50.

Could not agree more with this post Roxy.

Haven’t even checked my losses on the day but the sheer entertainment value has almost made it worthwhile. Hope it stays down at the levels until pay day! Bed wetters galore I tells ya

Nothing here was unforeseen. We all agreed that there were risks. What today has done is to remove 1 risk (Russian exposure) and add another lack of liquidity. Poly K was always the insurance policy. I’m not panicking in the slightest, looking forward to many years of holding Polymetal.

Let’s reconvene tomorrow morning and pretend today never happened. Absolute madness!

When the dust settles I’ll still be here. Wonder which of our brethren will have fallen.

This is quite the spectacle. Goes to demonstrate that there will always be money to be made in the stock market when hysteria kicks in on either side of the coin.

I think the share price at close today will tell you far more than any of the experts on here.

Quick check of the HMRC website shows that AIX is fully recognised by HMRC. I fully expect LSE secondary listing but no massive dramas if not.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/recognised-stock-exchanges-section-1005-income-tax-act-2007

Production is not the issue. It’s all about how much of that production is sold and at what price. Q4 was 30% up yoy, the gold price was much lower q4 of last year but this was also pre war. Therefore it’s entirely realistic that H1 will provide far greater profits than 30% yoy.
You’ve got to look at the whole picture, don’t compare apples and oranges. I’m sure Nesis and Maxim will put it far more eloquently than I have. Enjoy the sausage roll and stay away from your broker until after the presentation.

Jesus, there’s a lot of drivel this morning. 150 posts by 9am, most of it name calling. Hopefully we can get back to some sensible discussions this afternoon after the presentation. I always find Nesis to be very insightful and also calls a spade, a spade.
I’m up to 37k shares and very happy with my past year of investing :)

Just got some more at 310 :)

The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient

Westy, while those figures may be ball park, I commend your calculations. Funnily enough, when I was posting yesterday I was thinking that it would be great to be able to put some numbers to those 3 factors. Thank you sir!

In Poly’s case it will almost certainly be a divi in specie, you will not choose a ratio.

You will hold Kazak company stress free, Russian company will probably also remain on LSE as while some of its operations are sanctioned, the company itself will not be.

How you invest/divest in the two will be entirely up to you. I’ve never been involved in a company split so maybe someone can correct me on this. It will be fascinating to see how it unfolds.

There are 4 main ways a demerger can be achieved: a direct/indirect dividend demerger, a liquidation demerger or a capital reduction demerger.

1. Direct dividend demerger

This is where a company will declare a dividend in specie (i.e. of assets rather than cash) of certain assets and those assets are transferred directly to the shareholders (or a certain class of shareholders).

2. Indirect dividend demerger

As above except the selected assets are transferred to a company owned by the shareholders (or a certain class of shareholder) rather than the shareholders themselves.

Both are relatively simple processes but rely on the company having sufficient distributable profits.

3. Liquidation demerger

This involves the dissolution of a parent company and the transfer of its assets to two or more companies. In consideration for the transfer of the assets, each new company issues shares to the original shareholders.

4. Capital reduction demerger

This is where a company reduces its share capital and simultaneously transfers its assets to a new company owned by some or all of the original shareholders. The retained assets of the original company remain within the original company.

Each method has its advantages and disadvantages and it is essential to establish which assets can and cannot move and what may be involved on an administrative level. For example, if you wish to split investment activities from business trading, you may simply prefer to move the investments rather than having to assign new contracts and transfer staff.

I also went back and re listened to the last update in full last night. Really wet the appetite for Wednesday. Also funny how many of the questions/problems that are regularly posed on here were addressed.

As for realistic war gaming: the headwinds are inflation & logistics related cost increases (likely still a big issue), inventory stockpiles (very hopeful on this one), debt levels (2.7 or above disaster, 2.7-2.4 not great, 2.4 - 2 good, 2 or below hello dividends).

The positives since the last update are: gold price up up up, ruble down, China opening up.

The war has rumbled on for nearly a year now, clearly 2022 profit will be down yoy but I am expecting a very healthy net profit for q4 due to inventory sell down. Based on fundamentals alone it’s massively oversold even now, so then it’s a question of future geopolitical impacts on the company and that’s anyone’s guess but for sure Nesis and co have demonstrated remarkable acumen so far and having been blindsided by the whole debacle will be astutely reducing future exposure.

Obviously I haven’t mentioned the company split but that would obviously mitigate a lot of the risk here. Lots to look forward to

As I’ve said here before, the best scenario for LTHs here is a resumption of dividends but a sustained suppression of the SP. Maybe we should join the wallies on here who think that they can influence the SP by talking ballacks.
Poly will be taken over by Putin and converted into a chicken farm. Sell now!

Green boxes are like Macbeth, speak thy name and ye shall be cursed.