Member Info for ElectricLion

I haven't run the numbers regarding takeover percentages, but I don't think JM has any interest in taking it private. What would he do with it then? He's an investor, more interested in lab-grown meat and immortality than building and then running a gold mine in a "challenging" jurisdiction. He wants shot of it, he just wants a decent price that's all. Yes, the longer it goes on, the more money it will take in running costs. How that translates into dilution is debatable, but it will come off the bottom line somewhere. It is what it is. As 888 says, CNR probably wouldn't have made it this far without him, so, in this narrow context, credit where credit is due. We don't have to agree with him on anything, or like him as a person, but CNR would probably be in a tight spot without him, so bear that in mind before sticking the knife in too deeply...

Whatever your opinion of JM, I think cegamer's comment from a couple of days ago is spot on:

"Either way - this whole thing is being driven by JM, not Mark, and you're in the backseat. If you don't like it, suggest you tuck and roll because this looks like it's easily going to drift into next year."

So get used to it, or sell up, 'cos JM's now running the show, whether you like it or not.

Thing is, we have no idea what the current bids are, or what JM's "fair price" target is, or how long he will wait to get it. So *all* attempts at valuations are really completely stabs in the dark. Personally, I think JM's target is a lot closer to $400m than some think. Doesn't mean he'll get it, but if you take that as an "anchor" price, then the offers we've had so far could be actually pretty decent in the grand scheme of things, at least, compared with most people's expectations at this point.

In addition, I think we've got used to timescales being stretched at this point, so it won't shock most if this does take a few more months. I'm sure JM will have *some* deadline in mind though, even if he hasn't told anyone else at all. The 1-year anniversary of the start of the sale process or the end of the calendar year are pretty arbitrary (and therefore meaningless) dates that we may attach some significance to, but JM is unlikely to.

The one thing I hope we can say with some confidence is that the company should be sold at some point, given there are a number of offers on the table already, and that whatever price they may be, they must surely be some way higher than the current market price. And so therefore, no matter how frustrated and disillusioned we may be, CNR must surely be a buy at this price. Could double, treble or more at a moment's notice. Finger's crossed.

From the interims:

"KME has lodged a formal protest with the Ethiopian Minister of Mines as a precursor to commencing administrative proceedings in respect of its long-standing proximal Exploration Licenses ("ELs") surrounding the Tulu Kapi Mining Licence area, in order to continue exploration programmes and community development which have always complemented Tulu Kapi. During an overhaul of the title-regulatory system in 2022, these ELs were over-pegged by a Hong Kong shell company owned by a British Virgin Islands shell company. We are confident that this situation can be resolved satisfactorily. KME has also lodged applications for additional exploration licences elsewhere in Ethiopia."

It's been mentioned in RNSs, yes. It's not new. Good chance of it being resolved in Kefi's favour IMO. No point having some shell investment company sitting on it forever.

I doubt there's any specific issue, and my personal judgement is that the risk of the project not going ahead is exceedingly slim. Rather, it's just a very large and complicated deal with a helleva lot of lawyers, negotiation, rules and paperwork, that all have to be worked through in excrutiating detail. It'll get done, but no-one can say exactly when.

I expect that MC and JM are letting Hannam run the show, so it'll be their rules, probably. For example, I think it was said somewhere that not stipulating a deadline was Hannam's advice. Who really knows though. It seems that we will hear nothing until the whole thing is done and dusted.

The way I see it, they are unlikely to actually *know* anything more than we do - would most likely be insider trading if they did (which must happen occasionally, but probably far more risk than it's actually worth in general).

Given that they do this for a living, they may have better instincts and/or more thorough research than most PIs, but even then - there's enough evidence of the big boys getting it badly wrong over the last 20 years that we can hardly assume that they have some unique insight.

It's a fact that this company doesn't make any money yet, and so therefore predicting a placing at some point in the future doesn't make you Nostradamus. But the company has indicated that won't be necessary until after TK sign-off. Up to you if you believe them or not, and even if you do, how soon after it'll come.

My take is that, as Rob says, they have been reducing for some time, and that has suppressed the SP. However, they are now out completly, and so that supressing effect is no longer present. There's needs to be a catalyst for the SP to take off of course, but when that catalyst appears, I'd expect a strong positive SP reaction, now that that headwind has been removed.

If you're out because you're fearful of a placing, and then the SP doubles on TK sign-off regardless, then your abundance of caution will have proven to be misjudged. (And let's be honest with ourselves, if any of us were actually risk-averse, we wouldn't be here in the first place!)

Personally, I'm holding everything I have and would buy more if I could. DYOR.

For once, I agree with you Seingred! I don't see Calibre as a serious contender here. They've consistently shown no interest in us at all as far as I can see.

I would say though that the argument that they got two mines for $100m, so therefore we would be too pricey for them doesn't stack up for me - just because you got one stonking deal (on say, burgers at the supermarket one week), doesn't mean that deal will be available every week at every supermarket - sometimes you have to pay a fair price for your burgers!

As I understand it, a toll deal with B2 was all done and dusted at a local level, but when it was escalated to the C-level, they turned it down on the basis they'd decided to sell the mines instead. It does make you wonder what might have been - if B2 had kept the mines and we'd had an equitable toll deal all those years ago. Cest la vie.

Again, as I understand it, Calibre wanted more than their fair share in a toll deal which was why it didn't happen. Perfectly within their rights to do so of course.

Now, the Chinese seem to be all over Nic right now, and seem to be far more likely candidates to me. Geopolitical synergies abound.

I can't see the current gold price gyrations making much difference to us or the buyers - you can't hit pause and renegotiate a major deal every 5 minutes just because the gold price has gone up or down a few bucks. Longer term projections are surely more relevant. Up is still better than down though!

As to why it's taking a while, or what price will ultimately be achieved, none of us can say. Speculation is free of course, but I'm not sure it's that helpful. We just don't know, and that's just how it is.

"who says a word that does not praise the Supreme Leader MC is immediately attacked by the cheerleaders"

Drop this attitude problem and then maybe it would be possible to have a real conversation. Or you could join SS and Punter, throwing around impotent insults and other childish nonsense instead of debating it properly. If that's all you actually want to do, then fine, drop the pretence fully, bark at the moon with the other mad dogs, and those of us that wish can filter you so we don't have to listen.

If you want a real discussion, then start one. Before you suggest any course of action though, the first thing to bear in mind is the stark truth that JM and MC own 25.4% of the company between them. That makes defying them a challenge in practice. I've yet to hear a more practical solution than my (genuine and well-intentioned) suggestion of simply selling up if you don't like the situation.

Impossible to say really, although not many options have been exercised full-stop, and none that I can recall above the prevailing SP, so it is a bit unusual just in that regard. I wonder why they didn't buy in the market? The MMs could have found 70k shares down the back of the sofa. Maybe they weren't allowed to buy in the market but are allowed to exercise options? Who knows. I also wonder if it will be followed by others...

I agree that a 10-bagger by Christmas is shameless ramping, that said, the only reason the SP didn't get anywhere near 1p was because RAB sold into the rise, which they can no longer do.

If anyone's addressing me, and I don't respond, it may be because I've filtered you. Just FYI. Of course you may not be - I can't tell! lol

Do everyone a favour, including yourself and sell and move on if you don't like it. Never will understand why someone would hang around moaning on a stock they don't like. (And don't try and tell me you don't hold stock - your behaviour is not that of an impassionate observer, to put it mildy.)

One of the slow-burning but promising short-term takeover cases on the London Stock Exchange is that of Condor Gold (ISIN GB00B8225591, UK:CNR). The company officially confirmed in late 2022 that it was looking for a strategic buyer, with a bid anticipated to come in by spring 2023. However, the process has taken longer than expected, and the stock has recently drifted back down. Condor Gold shareholders should look to the example of Cardinal, a West African gold explorer where a similar situation unfolded. Against the backdrop of a rather lacklustre situation, Cardinal stock was trading at 25 cents in March 2020, when bid interest emerged for its high-quality gold assets. As sometimes happens in such situations, competitive tension between several bidders led to a series of bids – first 45.775 cents, then 60 cents, 66 cents, 70 cents, 90 cents, 100 cents, 105 cents, 107.5 cents, and the deal getting closed at 110 cents (even though someone else then tried to enter the fray with 120 cents). I continue to believe that the Gordian knot at Condor Gold will be cut through before too long because of the large gap between the company's market cap and the intrinsic value of the firm's Nicaraguan gold assets (Undervalued-Shares.com Lifetime Members have access to a whole treasure trove of information on Condor Gold).

Aether - not sure what you're implying. A conspiracy of some sort? Yes, I know Sakura from CNR. I also know Geovanni, who punted this on the CNR board before the big fall. I understand he lost quite a bit of money. So I am aware of SNG.

I'm not a regular here as this isn't my field and I don't own stock. I do however occasionally spot posters or shares I have a passing interest in in the 'Latest Share Chat' listing to the left, and every so often my interest is piqued sufficiently that I have a peek.

In this case, Sakura's name came up. I have no agenda here, as I said, I neither own stock nor am looking to buy. I merely pointed out that Sakura's warning when the stock was valued at a couple hundred million or whatever it was may have had some merit, given that the MCap is now a little shy of 14m.

I completely understand that posters who are negative about a stock you have put your hard-earned cash into are never going to be popular, and I won't hang around I assure you. All I would say, is that if Sakura's warnings had been recieved with an open mind, some may have lost less money than they ended up doing.

It may however, be a very good buy at the current price - that is not for me to say, as I have not followed the share or the science. Hopefully that clears it up.

"One thing I do believe is their explanation of why they are actually here, which they rather stupidly provided to another BB. To quote " A few weeks ago some Charlie on here told us we should be investing in SNG valued at several 100 million. I took the bate (sic) to find it was a technology I knew little about".

Oh dear."

Considering the current MCap is 14m, she might have had a point don't you think? Just sayin'

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5NOA9LQi50

Apologies if already posted.

A buyer will not be looking at today's (or yesterday's, or tomorrow's) gold price to price their bid. That would make very little sense. Apart from the volatility, the gold price only starts to actually matter in practice once it's being sold, and that will take, let's say, 18 months from start of construction. They will use long-term predictions from banks or possibly their own in-house economists. I'd prefer the gold price to be up instead of down as well, sure, but I doubt it'll make much difference to the negotiations, or the final offer.

I wouldn't expect it to. Forgive me for being Captain Obvious, but gold rising doesn't make gold equities rise - buying shares does. I don't think many will be buying CNR shares as a play on the gold price. High-AISC (highly-leveraged to the gold price) producers, yes. Small explorers, not so much, and CNR specifically is in a very particular phase of it's existance which won't particularly interest the kind of sector-generalist invester just looking for gold-price exposure.