Member Info for ElectricLion

A bit of background on my previous post. The company in question initially began with a par value of 1p per share, which I assume is standard. Then there was a 1:20 share consolidation, resulting, as Theorist explains, in one twentieth the number of shares but with (in theory) 20 times the value per share. The par value also got multiplied by 20 to become 20p per share. However some time later the share price dropped below 20p per share, when it became necessary to raise further funds. Hence, the "Sub-Division" in the linked RNS below. The fund raise went through at 15p per share in the end.

Theorist. Your explanation is correct for a standard stock split, however this would not be a "standard" stock split.

Here is the example where it actually occurred: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CNR/proposed-open-offer-to-raise-up-to-16339m-a4tik9tfdwi7a3r.html

Please do take the time to read it properly, and maybe you will reconsider your position. Here is the most relevant paragraph:

"The Open Offer is conditional upon Shareholder approval of the Sub-Division, which will be sought at the EGM to be held at 11 a.m. on 21 December 2022, a notice of which is set out at the end of the Circular. Under the Act, a company is prohibited from issuing new shares at a price less than the nominal value of its shares. The Company's Existing Ordinary Shares have a nominal value of £0.20. The middle market share price of each Existing Ordinary Share on the date prior to the date of this letter was £0.1925. In order to enable the Company to offer New Ordinary Shares at a discount to Qualifying Shareholders to fund the Company through its sales process, the Company proposes subdividing each Existing Ordinary Share into one New Ordinary Share of £0.001 and one Deferred Share of £0.199. The Company expects that the Deferred Shares will never have any real value. The Deferred Shares will have no rights to vote or to dividends. The rights of the Deferred Shares to participate on a winding-up of the Company are unlikely to be realised, as such rights will be subject to the prior payment to the holders of New Ordinary Shares of the nominal capital paid up or credited as paid up on the New Ordinary Shares together with the sum of £10,000,000 on each New Ordinary Share."

Theorist - I am on no-ones 'side' here, and freely admit I don't have much idea what will happen next. However, I have already explained to you in the past how shares can be issued below par value, and pointed you to a fairly recent example of where it actually happened in a share I own. As I understood it, on that occasion, you essentially had a share split, say 1:20, with 1 share out of 20 deemed to have value, and the other 19 deemed to have zero value. It's a bit of accounting trickery at the end of the day, but it sidesteps the issue with raising below par value.

So sell up and invest in something more to your liking? If not, explain to me why not?

That's your opinion Seingred. I have already stated mine. I think I've been pretty clear. We shall have to agree to disagree once more.

*Obviously the "you" here is meant in a general sense, not you personally.

I'm saying that, when's all said and done, no-one has more responsibility for your portfolio than you. Neither

MC nor JM made anyone buy shares in this company, just as no BoD makes anyone do anything. Some boards are wrong, some even lie, but you made the choice to invest, no-one else. And if you put in more than you can afford to lose, probably most likely out of greed of the profits you imagine making, then that's on you, not MC or JM.

Regarding JM - do you expect everything anyone ever says to come true, at the precise moment they said it would? Of course not, but that's the logical opposite side of the position your taking. It's a factor, no more.

I think you've also got to know when to move on from comments or mistakes of the past. How long ago was the comment of JM's? I must say, I don't recall it, and so can't have attributed too much significance to it at the time, and it simply has no relevance today. Things change, let it go.

Me, me, me. Yeah, whatevs (yawn). I wasn't actually talking about you Seingred, for what it's worth. As much as we may differ, I don't include you in the group that shouldn't be investing.

Believing MC and/or JM is really neither here nor there. An investor manages risk. Most PIs do not. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

Further, a mature adult takes responsibility for their own decisions and actions rather than blaming others.

I read an article recently saying that the Lassonde curve model was in danger of being broken due to the difficulties of getting finance.

IIRC, Mako had quite big problems due to going ahead without a BFS, turned out they didn't have quite as big an economic deposit as the PFS stated. I haven't kept an eye on them TBH, I assume they got through it. Risky business though.

Weeks before the sale sign, as far as any of us knew, finance was just about to be completed. Sure toot your own horn if you predicted that the finance would fall though, but none of us are clairvoyant.

I don't understand why you aren't a billionaire yet, given how right you are about everything all the time.

Cf, yep completely right, not 100% analogous to CNR, just an example of an instance where building it perhaps wasn't the best thing for shareholders. I guess the real point is that no-one can predict the future and sometimes a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Either way, we are just passengers here, so if we don't like the direction of travel, it's time to get off the train.

There are some who simply should not be investing - they don't have sufficient mental fortitude for it IMHO. The rise of execution-only brokers has made it *too* easy for just anyone to plonk everything they own on the investing equivalent of a single roulette number. Occasionally, they get lucky and for ever thereafter portray themselves as wise old sages, when the reality could not be further from the truth, but more often they incur big losses and then spend their remaining time and energy blaming everyone and everything, up to and including concocting conspiracy theories, in order that they can absolve themselves of any responsibility. IMHO, it's pretty easy to spot the chancers from the investers, and that is true regardless of money made or lost.

Regarding the risk of building a mine - checkout HZM's 6-month price chart. Big cost overruns during construction and no clear path to further finance. A bullet dodged for me, as I used to be a holder. In theory, it was supposed to be one of the safest resource plays on AIM, but look how it has turned out.

Past performance is not an indictor of future performance. Works both ways.

Looking to buy back in SB? ;-)

Honestly, I think it's fair to say that most would just like this to be wrapped up now, pretty much regardless of price. JM may be playing 4-dimensional chess, but neither he nor MC are giving us very much to go on, and so the current SP is not a suprise.

The actual value can be calculated in a number of ways, but, as with anything else in life, it's only actually worth what someone will pay for it. Personally, I'd take the best of the 5 non-bindings we have and shake hands on it, whatever the price. There's other things I can do with the money.

If you're really pushing me for a price, then I'd be shocked if it went for less than 45p, which is still 3 times the current SP. So, somewhat reluctantly, this is still a buy for me, but for goodness sake, do get on with it!

It's hard to see how this isn't just free money at this point. I know the history, and I've even been here for some of it, so I understand the reservations, but even the most vociferous of HAA's detracters must now begin to admit that TK is happening, which opens the door to a whole new phase of Kefi's existance.

In practical terms, a doubling of the SP, probably before Christmas, seems more likely than not, just for starters. I would never suggest that anyone throws caution to the winds - sensible risk mitigation is a must for long-term survival in this game, which for me mostly means appropriate position sizing, but that said, it's hard not to throw everything I've got at this right now, given that a £1 invested now is odds-on to be £2 and hopefully more any day now.

Can't speal for cp, but precisely none of the post makes sense to me. I've outlined in the past why I don't think Calibre are interested in us. I think they prefer safer jurisdictions to be honest, and can't blame them for that. Next, I'm pretty sure they won't have committed to the recent M&A if it somehow depended on buying CNR! They'll have figured out the finance for that before signing on the bottom line.

Regarding the price, well do we think JM will accept 20p a share? If not, what would be the point of submitting that offer in the first place? It would waste eveybody's time. Do we think that that of the 5 non-binding offers received so far, that have all been rejected, or at least put on hold, for being too low, that none of them are above 20p?

Time will tell, and for that matter a broken clock is right twice a day, but based on the information we know now, I don't see it, any of it.

"You're all in danger of rolling over and accepting sub-par management way too readily"

Perhaps, but even if that was the case, but, as I've tried to point out before... what do you actually suggest we do about it?

You can either a.) sell your shares, or b.) embark on a lengthy and difficult process to change the management or it's strategies, which is highly likely doomed to failure, as JM owns such a large percentage (and also bankrolls the company, so pi**ing him off could have very significant ramifications all on it's own).

Which of those options are you proposing? Or is there a 3rd way I've not considered? Genuinely interested in any constructive response. (But every time I've poseed this question in the past, all that follows is tumbleweed, followed by the same whinging a few days later.)

I don't want to be a downer, especially not today, but if you're talking about being logical, well there's *two* logical possibilities. One is that today's share price is not an accurate representation of true value. The other, less palatable, but equally logical, explanation is that it was the £1.40 price that was not an accurate representation of fair value...

Never mind PREM, checkout HZM! A bullet dodged for me - I am a former holder there. Big cost overruns and no clear indication of how it will be financed. 50% down today on further bad news, to add to a huge drop a couple of months ago.

It is my sincere hope that one of the reasons for the seemingly interminable duration of the finance arrangements here is to do everything humanly possible to avoid the same happening to us half-way through construction.

Your average is a relic of the past. You can only control the here and now. JM won't care about his average, he just wants to be able to buy shares for less than he will be able to sell them for.

"Buy when there's blood in the streets... even if some of the blood is your own."

(Not financial advice!)

I have seen commentary (can't find it at the moment, soz) that the Lassonde Curve model is in danger of being broken, as it's so difficult to raise capital at the moment. Something to consider. My comment would be that, compared to most juniors, GGP already has the luxury of a multi-hundred-million MCap already, so can raise a hundred million or two out of equity if it has to, unlike most.