Member Info for elcobbledore

To quote Bernie

A review of spodumene concentrate prices highlights a 270% increase in the quoted SC6 Index since July 2025 with prices recently exceeding the US$2000/t mark.

So yes i think we all agree we need clarification why the realised price is a lot less than expected.

I’ve sent a message on the kodal website, if others also send a note querying the revenue paid for the second shipment who knows we may get an answer.

Bernie even says in the RNS 5th Feb recent prices exceeding $2kpt. So yes something doesn’t add up.

That still doesn’t work out. Realised price of the last shipment was 86 per cent of the sc6 price at the time. Working backwards that would mean 10 day average sc6 for second shipment for 100 per cent would be $1468 pt. I’m pretty sure it was higher than that but I don’t have the daily breakdown. I thought it was $1800-2000 pt?

Yep in that latest interview just under 20k tons. Makes the 95 per cent price of around $1200 pt. I don’t have the historical prices by day but pretty sure sc6 was around the $1800-2000 pt mark? I agree we all need to know why there is a difference as it’s not exactly pocket change.

Folks I do welcome a balanced board, both positive and negative. People are welcome to post and it’s useful to discuss both sides. Interesting point badomen re the SC take up. I still think Hainan will make a bid to buyout after resource upgrade is announced. Knowing the Chinese it will be a low ball offer but kod doesn’t have to accept it if it comes. I can’t see an offer less than 1p being accepted in my view.

Ps could this be why there’s a delay in resource upgrade ie Bernie holding the cards? Prob not but this is taking forever. Hopefully gets to 50mt.

If you’re Hainan and are considering putting in a bid, you’re licking your lips right now.

Today’s news is disappointing but it does happen in business. Especially with the Chinese.

Ultimately we are still producing a decent quality saleable lithium spodumene that Hainan are happy with, along with reasonable margins with current lithium price.

This explains the take off agreement for stage 2 silence I guess and the silence on floor price.

Let’s hope it gets sorted soon, just a little blip I hope.

They way I see this is exactly what badomen said ie it’s not a case about money, it’s a case of power and authority. Kod and Bernie should have had a much better watertight contract in place. But they are absolutely right to stand up to the Chinese and not be bullied into paying it. I’d argue that Hainan need Kod just as much as Kod needed Hainan. But after Bougouni I’m not sure Kod will want to work with Hainan after this. Thoughts?

So I guess based on that, it’s in neither party’s interest to do this seeing as it’s such a small amount of money. Disappointed it’s got to this level, especially when it was the contact “we have a strong relationship with Hainan”. Clearly it’s broken down. Let’s hope it can be repaired.

It’s such a small amount, Hainan could have easily helped here. It’s the way the Chinese work unfortunately.

It’s frustrating it’s got to this. Tbf I do think Bernie is right standing up to Hainan. Ultimately stage 2 is up for grabs. Hainan seem to be forgetting that and no doubt there are others interested especially as lithium price is reasonable. If Hainan mess with kod, can kod find another partner for stage 2? Not ideal I know but kod does have options too.

Ggp is a money making machine. I don’t see gold prices dropping. I think it can get to £25 by 2028 with the right tailwinds, looking at relative PE ratios and gold potentially much higher. If anyone thinks I’m mad as a hatter please tell me (without insulting) - this is what a board is for, debating.

Https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103779357-SMM-Analysis-How-Will-Zimbabwes-Export-Ban-Impact-Global-Lithium-Supply

Ok ta. I’m expecting oil and gas prices to surge heavily

Ps no idea how much passes through that strait, prob not much, anyone have an idea?

So oil prices will increase meaning AISC increases. But also may affect lithium supply if any passes through strait of Hormuz, so lithium price may increase.

Also gold price has surged (latest I have which I think is future is $5700. I agree I think there will be a sell off across the market but if Bernie is negotiating goldfields than gold price is likely to add value here, but again no idea what he’s planning. Expect massive volatility for sure.

All eyes on vizgard now after Iran Israel USA….

Https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-price-forecast-our-8000-target-was-likely-too-conservative-1582491