The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Good spot deck - have given them a follow.
Going back to Kalaka, your initial post and the strategy for it. Cash could be raised and invested in turning it into a lower/mid-tier mine. If they do nothing more than prove up the resource and sell it on cheaply - say, $15/oz in ground - the value to PAT is still double its current MCap. Either way, there's value to be had and money to be made on this asset.
Given the prior conduct of the GoR over multiple years, I believe (it's only an opinion though) that they view Panthera as an annoyance to be ignored. I really think that they will only pay attention when they are summoned to court.
That being said, an imminent, amicable settlement wouldn't be a bad option to allow the Indian/mining side to de-risk and for all parties to move on.
Thanks Gall.
I appreciate that the arbitration process (assuming no settlement) will take a long time, but hope that the arbitration figure and the start of the process will act as catalysts in the immediate term.
It will be good to hear from Mark how he envisages Panthera spending the interim time on its other prospects.
The last corporate presentation was issued in May 2022, with timelines to the end of 2022.
We are obviously further down the line with all projects/prospects, but no overall picture or timeline for progression in 2024.
Obviously, Bhukia is largely out of Panthera's hands, but I would like to know when Mark will be issuing an updated corporate presentation and case for investors.
"In accordance with the Treaty, the parties must attempt to reach an amicable settlement and efforts are ongoing to determine if any potential exists for such a settlement of the dispute. If the efforts at settlement prove ineffective, IGPL will promptly deliver a notice of arbitration to the Government of India."
My working assumption is that if the auction goes ahead, this effectively shuts down any 'amicable settlement' opportunities with the local gov't. This leads to 3 scenarios off the top of my head (there are probably more):
1. Auction delayed (and we should receive an update from PAT in this case, as clearly there will have been a reason for the delay...)
2. RNS released before auction goes ahead with details of some form of settlement for PAT
3. Auction goes ahead and RNS released stating the Notice of Arbitration has been issued
In all of the above instances, the potential for PAT is transformational.
DYOR, usual caveats, etc.
Auction scheduled for early May (around the 5th). Working assumption is that if it goes ahead, this effectively shuts down any 'amicable resolution' opportunities with the local gov't, and the Notice of Arbitration will be issued by PAT (via LCM) shortly afterwards. Arbitration value could be informed by the auction, but plenty of rough estimates knocking around on this board.
In other news, the share trades are a nice shade of blue this morning...