Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Big spread, tiny volume. I'd hoped that the RNS on the 2nd would have been a catalyst for interest, but nothing thus far.
Given how significant and transformational the court case is for Panthera, I am slightly disappointed that Mark hasn't done anything to publicise the latest RNS - not even a tweet.
@Nelson, undoubtedly so - I suspect the claim size is known, the case is prepped and we are ready to go. It's more a question of what is considered to be a reasonable time frame for GoI to acknowledge and meaningfully respond prior to notice of arbitration.
You could make a case for 15/30/60/90/X days from the initial letter. Given the bureaucracy faced thus far though, I'm expecting it to be later in the quarter than sooner, and the last thing we want is to be accused by GoI of not giving them an appropriate time to respond, especially given the huge sums of money at stake.
@Pk, thanks - I'd forgotten that not-insignificant detail! In that case, I'd put $670M as the bottom-end of my expectations.
@Stampee it's impossible to put a % on it. Faskens have a proven track record (90% success rate) so you'd like to hope the market would be bullish about the case, but this is AIM...
Depends on how you value the gold in-ground and whether you use the 1.74, 6.7 or other MOz resource.
If you look at the rumoured $1bn, that works out at an in-ground $149ish/Oz for the 6.7MOz resource.
Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if $100/Oz is used and the claim is for around $670M, but my guess is as good as anyone's.
Notice of dispute - issued yesterday
Notice of arbitration - will be issued after no meaningful correspondence or amicable settlement
Arbitration - within 2 months of notice of arbitration
Still think we're 2-3 months away from issue of notice of arbitration, with arbitration itself to follow on within 2 months of that.
Love it - first working day of 2024 and the Notice of Dispute is issued.
I reckon either 60 or 90 days from issue to notice of arbitration, unless meaningful correspondence or amicable settlement is reached. From there, 2 months max to arbitration.
A very big 3-5 months ahead for Panthera!
Thanks Prof. I thought I was missing the little red dot...
I'm slightly surprised that we haven't heard that the notice of dispute has been issued to GoI by PAT, and am assuming that this hasn't happened yet. As a result, I expect the follow-on notice of arbitration will be issued at the end of Q1 at the earliest now. However, after 3 long years in this share, what's another 3 months?
Big H1 ahead for PAT in 2024.
@deck, something along these lines as a rough and ready calculation:
Lower, confirmed JORC resource of 1.74MOz
Gold in the ground value of $100/oz (5% of market value of gold/oz approx)
Value in the ground = $174M
Shares in issue 171M
Value/share $1.02 (80p, or 16 bags from current sp)
Same calcs for non-JORC 6.7MOz resource gives $3.92/share value (£3.07, or 60x current sp)
If you swap out the 'in ground' value of $100/Oz with market rate of approx. $2000/Oz, you can multiply the above numbers by another 20x.
In short, PAT is due a re-rate.
Yep, about 100m - I read on here that amount of drilling would be about right to recommission the broken part, but I'm no expert.
It'll be interesting to see if target depth is again revised, or if the seal will be perforated this time. We'll find out soon enough.
I think that Lorna is very aware of how rampy her predecessor was, and is trying to strike a more measured, cautious tone this time around. However, I watched the interview again, and agree that there were flickers of emotion at certain points when the helium shows were discussed. I'm also aware of my own conscious bias though.
We will see soon enough!