Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
What it means...
Re:LCM arbitration. I would like confirmation from another learned poster on here, but I understand that the vadt majority approaches to LCM are turned down before due diligence, and only a small percentage of those subject to due diligence are successful. *IF* successful, it's a big deal for Panthera given LCM's success rates for the cases they pursue. This provides both a negotiating tool and an insurance policy for Panthera in the event that any party reneges on any deal agreed.
Mark has always said that he would prefer an amicable settlement with the govt and has pursued this in parallel with arbitration options. He has been open about being in detailed negotiations with a potential JV partner which may unlock the courts.
The proximity of the LCM due diligence deadline to the next court date, and Mark's comments regarding a major update on Bhukia 'hopefully sooner than later' suggest that things may imminently, rapidly come to a head. Usual caveats apply here.
Hope this helps, it's just an opinion and please due your own research.
MB has always said that an amicable solution is preferred, but the LCM arbitration route is clearly him also preparing for the worst. It's both an insurance policy and a negotiating tool - well played, Mark.
Taken from the RNS of 1st June:
'...While the Company is pleased to report that all the third-party experts have recently tabled their due diligence findings, the Company has agreed to a further extension to the LCM Due Diligence period to 30 June 2023 to consider these findings. The Company does not expect a further extension of the due diligence period.'
From the RNS of 3rd July:
'While the Company previously did not anticipate a further extension of the due diligence period, the Company confirms that it has agreed to a further extension to the LCM Due Diligence period to 14 July 2023.
'Following the successful completion of LCM Due Diligence, the parties can then move to complete a Funding Confirmation Notice. There can be no assurance that LCM's due diligence will be completed to LCM's satisfaction.'
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The outcome is binary: either the due diligence is completed to LCM's satisfaction, or it isn't.
To my mind, either Panthera is fine tuning aspects of the due diligence to enable LCM to reach their decision, or it is being held back on a technicality to assist with government/JV negotiations ahead of 17/7 court hearing. It is my opinion (and only my opinion) that:
- If LCM's due diligence fundamentally wasn't to their satisfaction, we would know this by now as there is nothing to be gained from extending the due diligence period.
- If Panthera is fine tuning the due diligence submission/answering final clarification questions, at this stage this is more encouraging than discouraging regarding the outcome.
- If the outcome is known to be favourable to Panthera but is being held back on a technicality, it is to facilitate the government negotiations.
I think (again, only my opinion) that it is the latter of these three scenarios. If negotiations are successful, nobody needs to know that the government would have been subject to international arbitration, with the associated loss of reputation, political capital and cost. If they are unsuccessful, Panthera starts the ball rolling on arbitration with the corresponding impacts on the government described above. This puts Panthera in a strong position.
Big 12 days ahead.
Likewise, I feel happy with my additional buys today at 6.5p.
Right now July feels like the most significant month that Panthera has had since January 2021 due to the proximity of the arbitration financing decision extension and the court listing date. Potentially a big fortnight ahead, and good luck all.
From my understanding:
- All tasks which are within Kodal/Hainan's gift to influence have been progressed, and the delays attributed to external factors (bureaucracy).
- Kodal is happy with Hainan and vice-versa, and they are progressing with the next project phases together in parallel to this sign-off process from a time efficiency perspective.
- Kodal doesn't need to raise funds
- Previous extensions of the long stop have been due to the aforementioned external factors, rather than fundamental issues with the companies, project or location.
I expect tomorrow's RNS to be more of the same on this basis.
Whilst we know that KOD and Hainan are beavering away to get the paperwork across the line as soon as possible, I'm expecting a 7am RNS tomorrow announcing a further extension to the long stop rather than confirmation that all is complete. However, I would love to be proved wrong.
Yes, and it's incredibly painful. I had to break my order down into chunks of 1000 and 500, and it took days to fill.
It's also worth speaking to T212 help - think the max holding size for Panthera now defaults to a low value (5000 shares or so if I recall), and they will raise that to 35000 shares if you ask.
Hope this is of use.
Panthera General Meeting on 28/6.
Due diligence on LCM arbitration funding expires 30/6
Rajasthan court listing date 17/7 (5 weeks today)
It looks like things are coming to a head at Bhukia, with Cascades bubbling along nicely out of the main spotlight.
Zak says close over 7.6p would be good - target 12p(ish) next resistance point by end of July, although with expected newsflow ahead of this time I would hope 12p would be firmly in the rear view mirror by then
The resolutions expire at the next AGM (for reference, the last AGM was held in November 2022).
Something is afoot. If I were to guess, I'd say it involves the letters 'J' and 'V', but that is only speculation on my part.
All here:
https://pantheraresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/001CSN7861-DP180-Proof-09.06.23.pdf
T212 update - I don't think they could be any slower in fulfilling my order - I've broken it down into chunks of 1000, 500 and even down to 100 shares and 2 trading days later I haven't added a single share to my name via this platform.
I suppose it's free for a reason...
A couple of takeaways from me on the RNS:
- All third party expert reports are in.
- 'The Company does not expect a further extension of the due diligence period.' - barring anything unforeseen it looks like a hard stop date.
- The hard stop date is tantalisingly close to the next court date.