Member Info for EdwardSeaton

I can't help being compelled to ask why you chose to share this?

Why so angry, LOTM?

I'm entirely happy here, and extremely comfortable with the medium to long term dynamic of the coal market.

There is nothing Bisichi can do about the price of coal. $10 equates to well over £8m profit a year, on either direction.

If you don't see the upside, whatever are you wasting your time here for?

As I read it, they made a profit on the investments. What you are seeing as a loss is a partial sell down. They consider the investments as cash equivalent.

Surely we all knew the price of coal?

Good confident presentation. Nice to have a morning buying opportunity. Very happy to accumulate.

See trading statement 8th August. I'm not sure what more could be added?

I guess dividend will remain consistent with the FCF commitment.

I very much recommend you listen to the interim presentation next week. You'll get a tremendously transparent feel for the business.

Precisely. If you don't understand that, you really shouldn't be here.

Every dollar movement in coal is about $15m of profit per annum.

Unlike most is the world's coal producers, Thungela is a fantastically run business, well placed to benefit from other miners going out of business.

Correct, and that is his point. We have bought an 8% dividend, and £3 of assets for £1.

I agree - the nature of the business, the convoluted ownership structure, the feeble communications, and the lack of liquidity will always put some off.

But irrespective of these things, not us.

I would if I could, but not me today.

But I'm going to guess it is my friend who has built a stake of over 2% now.

We are far away from a dividend. And you can only pay a dividend from retained earnings.

If you are looking for a dividend, you are definitely in the wrong place.

The Midas touch there, Beza!

Still - I can buy more with the dividend...

Wise words and a good analysis of the imbalance that will progressively unfold.

The market never assumed the 2022 prices were here to stay, so the share price never reflected that.

I do think I share price is quite capable of returning to highs. Just another $50 a ton would add over £500m to profit, and we are only just about capitalised at that.

Having said that, I'm a regular buyer of this stock, so I'm very happy for it to lurk down here a while yet.

Thanks. Tremendously amusing.

Https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/61520-thungela-the-coal-mining-success-no-one-expected/

Good info and forward guidance in here this morning.

They are not assuming an imminent increase in the coal price, and certainly implied no distress at the current level. Although as I say, they see the current price as advantageous in terms of acquisitions.

I would say Andrew certainly considers their expertise to be coal.

He also emphasised the dramatic improvement in Trans Net logistics this year.

Https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/61520-thungela-the-coal-mining-success-no-one-expected/

A good read.

I would say two clear steers.

1. Mining is very much part of the future, and opportunities are being sought in the current depressed market. I was concerned that they might be looking to exit mining, but quite the reverse.

2. The c. £15m of investments are treated very much as cash equivalent. Much play was made of the ability to move quickly if an attractive mining opportunity arises in South Africa.

Plenty of other thoughts, but those are the two key points to consider.

Pre what results?

When is it ever not pre results?

Among other things, I will again be asking for more clarity on their investment holdings beyond a vague 'extractive and energy related businesses, the majority with a market cap of over $1bn' narrative.

But all things considered, I would say a flat year-on-year is a pretty decent investment result for 2024.

By far my greatest concerns are the crazed structure of LAS/Bisichi, the lack of a defined company direction, and the absence of a dividend policy.

I am not seeking huge dividends - merely something like Thugela has in place, whereby they have committed to paying out at least 30% of FCF.

My friend and I have already sent AH a pre-AGM list of questions. I am heavily invested in Bisichi, but my friend is on another scale.

Slightly perversely, given that I intend to remain a buyer rather than a seller for at least the next 5 years, part of me rather likes this ongoing ability to by 300p for 100p. But sooner or later, the price will have to catch up with reality.

It is a curiosity the Bisichi could currently purchase LAS and therefore 42% of itself for just £9m.

I think they should do this, flog off their commercial property interests for best prices, seek a successor mine to Black Wattle, and continue to invest the bulk of the profits from their mines in (clearly defined) energy investments.

Of course!