Member Info for EdwardSeaton

? If a company buys its own shares, they are in the balance sheet.

The buy backs are the equivalent of about 2pps.

I sense you think a 2p dividend rather the the buy backs would make the share price higher now, even though there is no profit to substantiate a dividend?

How do you know the buy backs have not helped the share price? Buying shares necessarily supports any share price. What would the price now be without the buy backs?

And unless I'm much mistaken, the price has risen 30% since August 6th.

Yes, and Newcastle for Aus.

Should have read 'I understand why AH said he was sleeping well at the AGM'.

That's a really strong set of numbers, and far more impressive than 2022 H1, which was entirely due to external events.

I understand why AH £5m from an API average of $101 is incredibly encouraging for H2.

It is good to see a little more clarity slowly emerging from Jon Wong's investment department.

And it would seem West Ealing will be realised in 2025 in a positive way.

May the faithful enjoy the moment!

Strange indeed. The market is both dozy and disfunctional. Both to our ultimate advantage.

If you are a regular buyer, rejoice.

You think they should have dispersed more than 47% of FCF (div plus buy back)?

Or you think they should have sold coal above market price?

Or not invested in the life of mines?

Or what?

You seem to have been oblivious to the coal price movements. Surely these numbers were entirely to be expected?

Far more interesting is the significant upwards movement in the respective benchmark prices since the end of H1.

So H1 profit £50m, and coal price now about 15% up on H1 average.

I'm going to guess full year profit £175m, and a final dividend of R13.

A fantastically well run company.

From Glencore, who are no longer divesting coal assets:

´Lack of investment in new coal assets and a realisation that the fuel will remain part of the global energy mix for years to come is likely to underpin tight supplies and high prices, which investors expect will continue to boost Glencore's profits.´

Not exactly, but at the AGM, AH and GC both said they were 'very comfortable' at current prices.

Thungela say around 80, but much bigger.

What is there to be scared of? Market cap is barely more than cash and the 10% ONT holding.

Everything else is priced to be worthless.

Just enjoy the opportunity.

Probably true. But money is made when markets stop functioning properly.

Interesting that key holding ONT is 50% up in the last few weeks.

If you believe in the company and you are a buyer, this is surely a good thing?

Is there a cat walking around on your keyboard, by any chance?

Well no, because IPO is valued far below NAV on the basis that NAV is fantastical.

This demonstrates that in the case of this company, NAV is correct.

Is there another type of company?

AGM summary

In attendance were about 12 people. I went with a friend, and between us, we own about 1.5% of the company.

There was the usual director salary grief from the main institutional investor, Stonehage Flemming, and they were not impressive. I remain of the opinion that the SP is crushed by opacity rather than AH's salary.

Questions went on for about an hour, which was apparently a record. The atmosphere was otherwise positive and at times humorous, but deeply frustrated.

The primary point of discussion was consistently about needlessly pitiful communication, both in terms of general updates on trading, and on their planned direction.

AH radiated unbridled enthusiasm about the future - 'I've never been more excited'.

I said to him that I believe that enthusiasm to be genuine, but evidence suggests that the outside world does not understand what they do and where they are going, and will continue to price their stock at this near-failure level until they correct that ambiguity (so easily done).

Without repeating my prior thoughts on here which are unchanged, I now know that their £15m of investments in energy stocks are all in companies with a Market Cap of at least £1bn, such that they can be considered instantly liquid.

AH and GC were quite happy that the company was decently profitable at the current coal price, and that they were content to sell into the domestic market.

The board was exceptionally pleased with the new political set up in SA, which they consider to be far more pro-business.

JH spoke briefly about the West Ealing property development, but other than confirming that September is a key date in terms of planning, there was nothing new to add.

I said to AH that unless they clarify both their corporate direction and the details of their substantial investments, it is perfectly possible that in three years time, we could be discussing £30m of investments, £10m of cash, and still be at 82p and a market cap of £8m.

I could go on but won't. I would strongly suggest anyone genuinely interested should attend the AGM next year.

I have bought more stock since, as I consider the current price to be absurd.

The trouble for ponzi is that all his old predictions are still there to be laughed at.

He has a genius only for comedy.