Member Info for EdwardSeaton

A curious lack of flurry in advance of Monday?

I suspect it will remain the case that there are many companies with multi-billion market caps making a fraction of Thungela's profit.

But the wonderful upside is the quite absurd 20% divided.

For goodness sake, man - you only have to read their last trading statement to get your answer.

Https://thecoalhub.com/report-presentation/international-coal-prices-rise-on-worries-of-supply-constraints

Https://thecoalhub.com/report-presentation/international-coal-prices-rise-on-worries-of-supply-constraints

LAS are crazy not to buy Bisichi at this price.

£35.5m of Bisichi net assets are currently valued at £9.5m.

£4m for the shares they don't own, in return for an £8m share of Bisichi cash and investments. Plus a profitable coal mine and property investments in the side.

But then the Heller boys are a crazy pair...

If it wasn't for LAS owning 42% of Bisichi, I'd have a go at it myself - I wouldn't have to borrow a penny!

I certainly made the best use I could of the crazy ride down to 430.

You could fund a takeover of Bisichi at 95p by using less than half of its cash and investment portfolio.

You'd be left with net assets of £25m, at zero cost.

You could offer a 50% premium, and still be left with funds to spare.

Madness...

It couldn't be less accurate. Final results are June.

I think those are high quality thoughts.

The only things I would add are that RB volumes have recently been significantly improved (60mt annualised in December), and the unwinding of excess stock in China will come to an end.

Yes, but all those are factored into the R4.6bn to R5.4bn profit guidance.

Look at it another way. A profit of $260m off 12m tons of coal is about $20 a ton.

$127 was the H1 average for RB, certainly not the full year.

I suspect the markets will wail and gnash until the 2022 figures cease to be the yardstick. The buying opportunity will be around for a while yet, and that's welcome.

PS The last I read was that RB volumes in December were much 60m tons annualised.

H1 was R10. Best guess? Same again.

R20, so circa 80pps.

Oh, the disappointment of only making £200m...

The stand out thing is that they were still very decently profitable in H2.

The new website has gone live today.

Never has so much been written about so little...

TONY - I have to ask why you have always been positive about AML?

It is run as a private company, it should be a private company, and there is absolutely zero basis for thinking it will ever make money.

Personally, I have no problem with the idea of some companies being producers of beautiful things rather than beautiful profits. Europe is riddled with man-made beauty precisely because money has funded art. That is a good thing.

But desiring Aston Martin products is a spectacularly poor reason to want a piece of the action.

Https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/55682-thungela-touches-down-in-dubai-as-builds-diversification-strategy/

Well I'm only telling you what I can see further up this page. No sophistication from me.

This is Bisichi - I wouldn't expect an RNS for their annual results...

But I suspect we just found out what happens if someone sells (or buys) 40000 shares in 15 minutes.

Quite right, Brad.

The daily movement of the coal price is a bizarrely short term obsession - if the price went up to $200 for a week, the share price would soar - if it fell to $50 for a week, it would collapse.

In truth, the only things that matter are the long term trends. Global supply against global demand, and Transnet's ability to move coal.

If you don't believe demand is going to outstrip supply, I have to seriously ask what you are doing here?

Personally, I think supply is going to fall much faster than demand over the coming decade, and that Transnet's problems will slowly improve.

I therefore think I am very lucky that I am going to have one of my biggest dividends of the year available to invest here on Monday week. Hopefully it will stay below £5 for a few more days.

This is, in a league of its own, the funniest thread on LSE.