Member Info for EdwardSeaton

The value of export coal sold in the first half of 2021 was around £16m.

The same volume of coal in the first half of 2022 will be round £51m.

That is a gain of £36m, with no obvious additional costs to be associated.

I therefore expect a profit of well in excess of £30m in the first half of 2022.

It seems to me that the market has absolutely no idea how to value this company.

The arguments for and against on here could equally be applied at 200p or 800p.

That's a detailed answer - thanks.

It is a perplexing share, this.

I'm left wondering if there is anything they could have said today that would have resulted in the share price not falling from where it was on Friday.

As I see it, the business is unambiguously around £150m of cash and traded shares. The rest of the portfolio, which they value at c £1.4bn, is valued at c. £500m.

To be sceptical by a factor of nearly 3 is very close to expecting a distress sale, or total collapse.

The share price is basically an instruction to liquidate.

SAGE - Is there a share price at which your reasons for scepticism cease to apply? If so, what is it, and why?

Such a shame their products are made in China.

Am I correct that there is about 100p per share of cash?

The price of coal has trippled over the last 12 months.

This has got a very long way to run.

Christ. Have we got money in drones?

I disagree. No sale and leaseback freehold purchase is going to proceed without evidence of underlying value.

There is plenty of evidence that 2.2 acres of land in Battersea is intrinsically worth very much more than £10.5m.

I'm not advocation sale and leaseback.

My point was that if they were able to sell a freehold asset valued at £10.5m in their books for £28, the £290m freehold valuation of their retained sites is likely be be very conservative.

Just talking about the coal Bisichi sold for export (320000 metric tonnes in 2021), at the Richards Bay price 12 months ago, its market value was $32m. The the current Richards Bay price ($329), its market value is $105m.

That is an additional $73m or £58m, with no associated additional cost.

Forgive me if I am wrong, but that uplift equates to an £5.27 per share.

Given the global shenanigans going on at the moment, demand for South African coal is rising not falling.

Alfreddie - if you are not interested in other people's opinions, I am truly curious as to why you are wasting your life with all these comments?

Personally, I find the fact that the price of export coal is triple what it was 12 months ago very exciting.

If you don't, please sell whatever you have (if any) now, so that I can buy some more before this is picked up on.

No, I don't buy that Monty.

If I could raise £280m, I'd but it without hesitation

Sell the property, be debt free, lease it back for £15m and be left with a £45m profit.

Don't forget they recently sold a Chiswick freehold with a book value of £10.5m for £28m.

13th May 2021: $102
13th May 2022: $327

Sooner or later, the share price will reflect this.

Much more of this, and it will be worth less than its cash.

Removing the value of its property, the business of Lookers plc, which made £61m post tax profit last year, is today valued at NEGATIVE £18m.

I see the share price has risen today. Maybe someone has made them an offer for the dilapidated shed on their website?

£90m pre tax, £61.2m post tax.

Either way, it is absurd that the business now has a negative value placed on it.

This is a business that is making a profit £80m a year, and which has a market cap in excess of its freehold values of zero.

An £80m annual profit - for nothing!

Lookers profit was £90m pre tax, £61m post.

Market cap excluding property is £30m.

That is way beyond insane.