Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
MrE,
One day the truth will come out about those. They did raise $13.8m and one of the reasons for that was for drilling, that was right before the "bond deal".
"The oversubscribed accelerated bookbuild process announced on April 19, 2022 has raised gross proceeds of USD13 million."
"The net proceeds of the Placing, in conjunction with COPL's other financial resources, are intended to be used for facility upgrades and drilling activities, and for general working capital."
The "bond deal" arrived just one month later in July 2022. So where did this $13m net financing go? Drilling was mentioned.
Regards,
Ed.
Eddy,
Totally unpredictable at the moment. If there are competing bids they have a lot of infrastructure in place. That gas processing plant and the steel pipes in the new GGS could also be used on the deep discovery, not just BFU. That and the 40mmbbls of gross 2P reserves have a large value as the company continuously highlighted over the years. So it all depends on the bidders, they did show there was live mobile oil in the Dakota and Frontier 2 (CCU) so that should be factored in too. In fact we were led to believe a JV company looked at that part for 15 months or so, an industry leader in fact, also signing an LOI. So there was something there for all that DD. Will that lead to a fair offer for the assets, we'll see.
My gut feeling is that this will still likely have to go through the court process. But looks like the CAG are not leaving any stone unturned so hopefully a very positive outcome for shareholders over the longer term. So to answer your question, yes I believe us shareholders will get something eventually after what has gone on here, but it will take time.
Regards,
Ed.
Burrenboy,
Exactly, they never tried to raise money via shareholders. Take CHAR for example, they did an open offer before drilling Anchois-2 and the market wasn't that interested around 3.5p. Participants could get their full excess etc. They then did the same thing after the well was drilled at 10p+ and were oversubscribed. COPL on the other hand didn't try this route at all. They imo could easily have raised for completion of Cuda or after completion to at least finance some of their debt. They didn't try that even once so have no idea how successful it could have been. CHAR using the same mechanism did the same thing twice and were very successful on the second raise after good news (they had no reserves either just contingent resources).
Regards,
Ed.
Nige,
The site I mentioned is very useful to check a lot of releases all at once early, from 7am. Just in case anything catches your eye for later that day.
You're welcome, these boards are all about investors sharing info and opinions to help each other out, between copious amounts of slanging matches etc. :) I'm a boring old fart these days between family commitments and working out, I've been off the booze since a mates stag do in Prague back in 2012. But who knows, if Tuenza-2 comes in from their future exploration activities and Mr Karam makes us obscene money I might get a flight over to see you guys.
Regards,
Ed.
Morning guys,
Nige early bird catches the worm, I'm up early on weekdays to catch the 7am releases. I don't know if you use Investegate to check for news but its a useful site to get most of the early market releases from oil and gas or miners. After that I normally check the bbs. Definitely I'd like to see more videos like that, very professional as you say to introduce all the management in that way. I hope we start to see some LSE or proactive videos to discuss progress in the future as that would certainly get the message out to more private investors.
Luke,
That link is always an easy read for sure, especially as we get a firm mention for the strong return of production onshore Kwanza. There's plenty of media hints out there as we await these results. Hopefully Sonangol will approve a comprehensive update soon.
Regards,
Ed.
Any publicity is good publicity. I see it as positive that the company are getting the message out there through more and more sources. The higher the profile the higher the trading volumes will be and hopefully the share price too. Like him or not he does have a lot of people who read his blogs.
Regards,
Ed.
Hi Nige,
Well folks are hoping that the flow rates will come before the conference tomorrow. Would be good publicity if they did as there's the possibility of Apex or Corcel getting a mention too. But in the grand scheme of things it'll probably not change a lot. Results out or not they could probably still give guidance on Tobias being developed and expected to produce 17500bopd approx by Q4 as per presentation at the conference. Results out beforehand would just be a happy bonus in my book. Presentation has end of TO-14 testing this Q. As I said previously this conference is to promote Angolan production/development and attract investment in.
I don't think that CRCL will want any more partners at this stage. Yes that 628mmbbls target on KON-16 is big enough to attract majors or large companies. But with Tobias cashflow guidance CRCL should be very well funded to drill this well at 35% in 2026 without any more than those already in the JV.
So if the results are out today or tomorrow before the conference then great hurrah we'll at least know what these first two wells are doing. If not it doesn't really change anything it will still be a case of waiting. Just like the CNOOC article today, the majors will still likely be chasing those established large scale offshore assets. I don't want to see CRCL being bought out at an early stage, I want to see them develop these fields and drill the big targets.
Regards,
Ed.
Morning guys,
You think that the whole situation cannot get any murkier until the company then releases another RNS. It seems like there was no rule book on this one. From holders holding more than the issued shares, to aggressive naked shorting, to squads of paid posters running 24/7. It sure has been an eye opener! Well done to the guys getting all the info out there to the right people to enlighten the court process as to what's gone on. Most of what has come out you couldn't make it up any more.
Regards,
Ed.
Morning Nige,
I had a good one, hope you did too. Yeah its nice to see the first of the expected results out and that they do confirm the potential for multiple elements. They'll need some RC drilling to see if these high grades can be repeated from drilling these two identified pegmatites from the RNS.
Mr Karam called these results intriguing so he sounds interested for sure, they did also mention that they're going to run battery metal and oil and gas assets together. Also the Ni assets that are in the process of being sold were way more advanced than Canegrass, not only did they have drilling but they had enough holes to establish an indicated reserve on at least parts of the assets. Canegrass is very early stage at this point compared to what IBM/BMA are buying. Personally I'd like to see some drilling on Canegrass before they sell, but no doubt we'll get more info in the future. They may plan to hold these assets for future development, very early to say yet as its only been a few positive rock chips so far.
Regards,
Ed.
Kat,
These are rock chips and clearly distributed right across the licence area. Its the drilling results that make the real difference. Some of the chips are high grade though as this surface material and it will be weathered as the pegmatites are outcropping at surface. I would certainly say that these warrant at least a followup shallow drilling campaign as that shows that multi elements exist on Canegrass and some at potentially commercial values. Check out the value of Rb for example. Put it this way if they got 1.33% Li and 0.67% Rb over a decent width when RC drilling that would be a very interesting hole. But like I say rock chips are never decisive, just interesting. Some companies get better drill results, some get worse, but to get mineralisation spead across the project area is intriguing. Certainly not the main even here which should be any day, when I saw the 1 today on ADVFN I thought here we go, flow rate time but not just yet it seems.
Regards,
Ed.
Nige,
You're welcome. The target remains the same, from the presentation start up rates are planned to be around 17500bopd, it also says may require additional wells. So if its these two wells then great, if its another 1-3 wells for the EPS, then fine as CRCL are well funded. So we'll see soon. It sure will be exciting, this time last year revenues were only something to be dreamed about, now we are on a path to them this year. Such a rapid turnaround, that is also rare on AIM too. Yeah its very near term for results now, between now and early April from that guidance. Eyes peeled for that RNS.
Regards,
Ed.
Nige,
A good flow rate for the well would be 2500-3000bopd for a well that depth, a great result would be close to twice that. A world class, outstanding result would be like TO-4 or 12,580bopd.
From the presentation it looks like both wells are being tested in parallel, that is the latest information. It looks like around now/any day for TO-14 and perhaps start of April that testing of TO-13 ends. It makes sense to test both wells together to get pressure information related to connectivity (they previously announced that the wells showed connectivity). There can be some delays in oil and gas ops, but that's what it looks like on the most recent presentation.
Regards,
Ed.
TNM,
Yup that's the very one.
Howdy Nige. :) Exactly a Stetson or a really large smile, either would do for the next video interview! Fingers crossed. It certainly is an important time for Angola, even CRCL have set themselves a timeline on the current blocks. They want the whole lot wrapped up by around 2039. So time is of the essence for Angola's oil production. So I'm sure the Angolans would want more commitments from US funds and US big oil into the next couple of decades. I agree right place right time, oil getting more expensive at the moment too, so great time to be planning two field redevelopments etc. JR and Cliff Barnes can stay in TV land, hopefully Mr Karam will get us plenty of the black stuff.
Regards,
Ed.
TNM,
Its the Angolans. they're over promoting their oil industry in Houston, the home of Texas tea. So I guess they're looking to drum up US investment into their industry to help boost their national production. So holders here are hoping we might see some news on TO-14 prior to the 19th (as Corcel were mentioned in the same article regarding the conference). It does also tie in with the recent presentation which shows TO-14 testing ending late this Q. So eyes peeled, look out for Stetsons etc If you see Mr Karam wearing one it would be a definite sign. :)
Regards,
Ed.
Breq,
Interesting view. Certainly chart on page 14 is an easier read than the chart on Page 11. Yeah even though Galinda is a much smaller development it won't be online from late this year, I can't see it contributing until at least middle of next year. That brings us back to the page 11 chart.
Is the KON-11 line as high as 6000bopd, perhaps who knows. What is interesting, apart from the cumulative oil production total being a staggering 300mmbbls, we have a light grey sharkfin stairway to heaven production chart in the background that peaks at around a staggering 110k bopd. :) It goes crazy from around the middle of 2027 when I guess they'll be drilling KON-16 around then.
Tracking that one back to 2024/2025 is certainly interesting as it suggests that right up to 2027 there's going to be around 10-12k bopd coming from somewhere. I didn't give it too much thought or traction at the time as I wasn't sure where all that was coming from as its not gross field production either. Perhaps we'll get an explanation for that sometime this year, does it include inorganic growth/M&A perhaps?
Regards,
Ed.
Nige,
That is certainly a possible way to comprehend that quote for sure. It does make it sound like that, but I guess its a wait and see.
Breq,
That's interesting about Brite's website. I hope Mr Karam is reading that too! :) Would make for an interesting proposition before first oil for sure. We'll see what happens I guess.
I must be reading those graphs a little differently. The page 11 chart I'm guessing that grey line is about 3-4000bopd to represent Tobias with Galinda being the dark blue line below for KON-12.
Page 14 chart shows to different things, blue lines are average annual production in bopds/bbls, peaking in 2024, natural decline through to 2039. Going from around 17500bopd down to I guess about 1000bopd or less. Orange line represents cumulative field production on the right of the chart showing total field production around 30mmbbls total (scale goes from around 5,000,000bbls to 35,000,000bbls). Chart above is for cash flow from the field, annual and cumulative. We seem to be reading these charts in a different way.
Regards,
Ed.
Perhaps someone should have forwarded the Feburary 2021 presentation to both Mr Kravitz and Mr Richardson. That would be the one entitled:
Atomic: A Strategic Acquisition with Significant Leverage February, 2021
It contains classics such as:
"High NPV asset at a price well below traditional metrics
• NPV (10%) @ 2020 WTI base of $39.00: Proved(P1): $101.5 million; Proved + Probable(P2): $185million (Ryder Scott Report)"
(These are the assets that are now worth nothing or next to nothing even though oil is now twice that $39.00 base level)
"The Operated oil fields are new (Young) oil producing assets, at the beginning of their 40+ year life, current
inclining production (see page 16) growth from gas/propane miscible flood implemented as a secondary recovery
scheme shortly after the delineation/development."
The company knew full well before July 2023 that this field wasn't just a trail to inject small amounts of NGLs
"A Game Changing Acquisition for COPL: Leverage to COPL"
"Net Asset Valuation: (80% P2 Reserves of $308 million (10% NPV)) at c. $62/bbl. WTI"
That was at $62/bbl before they had even bought Cuda
"The Operated oil fields are new (Young ) oil producing assets, at the beginning of their 40+ year life, current inclining
production (see page 16) growth from gas/propane miscible flood implemented as a secondary recovery scheme shortly after the delineation/development."
That bit was so good they repeated it twice just so it sank in!
"COPL re-simulated BFU plateau production (January 2021): 7,000 bbl./d at 10 MMCF/d gas injection rate (page 17)"
Note that this was 10mmcfd of GAS injection modelled, no mention of NGLs.
"New infrastructure and direct access to pipeline in the “oil friendly State of Wyoming”
And it has been ungraded since, this isn't just a few old rusty wellheads.
Then we have the absolute chestnut on page 17, that displays peak projected oil at 8000bopd and show how the inclining gas injection rate, and produced gas rate keep inclining to increase and maintain the oil production rate, with the make up gas rate (difference between the produced gas an injected gas) remained stable. Seems between July 2023 and December 2023 gas injection rate was no longer part of the plan. This presentation may still be available on the COPL site, worth a download if folks haven't got it. Send that to your judge as it shows just how valuable this all is at $39/bbl let alone $80/bbl.
Maybe if Mr Richardson had used this presentation as a guide he would have perhaps decided to inject some more natural gas into the field! Or maybe not :)
Regards,
Ed.