The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Bladey,
Lets hope so! The updates on TO-13 and TO-14 drilling results are certainly very encouraging and worth reading again for anyone that hasn't done so.
Regards,
Ed.
Sienna,
I doubt there will be much more bobbling left to do, we've been pending news on TO-14 for some time now so I reckon most of the short termers have moved on (volume has certainly decreased again). We do seem to be consolidating since the last run up to 1.4p. We'll find out in due course where the next news takes us. Mr Karam has his sights on 1.6, 3.2 and 6.4p if those options are anything to go by! Coincidentally that's approx £25m, £50 and £100m market cap at those price at current shares in issue. Fingers crossed its a whopper.
Regards,
Ed.
Nige,
Yes I reckon there's lots left to price in yet, cap is barely above £16m at the moment and there is quite a long list of what that has to cover like sale of mining assets, Canegrass, Mt Weld and the main attractions of Tobias and Galinda. There would also be oil exploration companies with caps higher than £16m with exploration prospects less than 297mmbbls net prospective resources (what CRCL have in their three blocks). Yeah if we get some strong results from the flow testing I reckon they should go on a promotion blitz with lots of video interviews to get it known as one of the new AIM oil and gas companies.
I would imagine now that we should get a fairly comprehensive update from the company on Tobias, the results of the two wells and what that means for the EPS. As pointed out the last we got on the 28th Dec said that the cleanup and testing was beginning. Like Dicko said today that's about 5 weeks ago now. There will be a few days in between testing TO-14 and TO-13 for the demob and moving the rig etc. I would imagine the rest of the time will be used for cleanup and testing.
What we do know is that prior to drilling the two recent wells the partners believed there was 65mmbbls unproduced oil remaining in Tobias. That's quite plausible given the size of the field and the fact that it was drilled mainly in the 60's and 70's. A lot would have come on from then including quality of the cement, perforation guns and especially logging to identify what is and isn't pay. So the recent results from the drilling make for interesting reading at this stage. So hopefully part of the next Tobias/Angola update may cover what they now believe is in Tobias or at least how they plan to move to booked reserves. So I'm hoping the next update is a chunky one with lots of info on forward plan, possible CPR and moving to development, fingers crossed.
Regards,
Ed.
Good morning Guys and Gals,
Nige, I've been watching that one, its amazing how it has risen. It was even capped at circa £100m before it even drilled a single well in Tanzania. Its currently sitting around £50m as you say on a well with elevated background gas, so far no mention of gas returns in the mud or gas kicks when drilling etc. So that's one heck of a gamble. Just shows the odd anomalies on AIM when we have a field redevelopment with movable oil and oil shows throughout the Binga in both wells and are currently capped at £16m (plus the other assets too of course), we also know that Tobias is a large target from previous wells. A lot more risk being priced in here than at HE1. Just more AIM oddities. In the past companies like SOU, HUR and UKOG all shot up to around £1bn valuation so AIM investors can get carried away at times.
Sienna,
Thanks very much for the compliments, however I think that Mr Karam is doing a fine job as exec Chairman, backed up by technical staff in Angola etc, not sure that the company really needs a CEO right now as its being led in right direction imo.
Exciting assets, company has its sights on first revenues, I'm looking forward to see how their strategy develops.
Regards,
Ed.
Nige,
At the current cap there's not a lot priced in here, if they can get those Ni assets sold this year a good portion of our cap could be cash. Angola seems to be shaping up nicely at the moment. So I reckon there is very little in our cap for Canegrass.
They've mapped what they believe are surface pegmatite clusters at Canegrass, the assays are set out to prove that. If they do that and those rock chips are positive and decent grade it won't cost much for a shallow drill campaign. If they could do that from the potential cash flow from the planned EPS, even better. So the potential is there for Canegrass to turn into something of very decent value, but we need to see those assays first and see if that warrants further drilling. I would see this as a bonus asset if it comes in, certainly focus is rightly on Angola at the moment.
Regards,
Ed.
Nige,
Its all gone pretty quiet on that one, initial grades were ok. They didn't get to drill their main target there so not sure if they'll go back to it. I guess we may find out in due course, although events in Angola may make that one pretty irrelevant. I've still got some hope that we may get something positive from Canegrass though as our neighbours did get good grades.
Regards,
Ed.
Nige,
Fingers crossed. I also reckon that BMA have about 1 1/2 weeks to get that counter offer in to pre-empt IBM for Mambare. Hopefully Canegrass assays will come this Q too. A lot of pies and hopefully enough fingers for CRCL. :)
Regards,
Ed.
Its certainly hard to say for sure if these two wells were drilled or not. According to the circa $13m bookbuild right before the bondholders got involved the clarification RNS clarified what those funds were to be used for. Presentations around this time suggested that the company had half the required casing on hand.
As for stock market rules, they don't trump ops at all. For example a small listed NOP cannot reveal an oil discovery until given notification to do so by the operator (tight hole status), that could even remain in place until after testing of that well. Not exactly the same position COPL were in but it does happen.
Not only the confidential wells. but what happened to the restricted production, new gas injection strategy, production guidance for 2024 and strategic update (most of those we were told would be published last year? Stock market rules indeed.
Regards,
Ed.
Hi Nige,
Yes Dicko's post was referring to the old TO-4 well that did circa 12,500bpd from the top 8m of the Binga. That's a pretty exceptional result for an onshore well in a carbonate reservoir. Drilling TO-14 in an offsetting position to this well and finding oil and pressure at its location is certainly encouraging and we're now one month on from when the company commented on well clean up and testing commencing (28th Dec). So eyes peeled for sure on the outcome.
Regards,
Ed.
Good morning Nige,
I'm not sure where you are getting that from? No the reservoir can't be x10 bigger than expected. The company reported that the Binga is around 100m thick pre-drilling as they have the historic wells to work from. TO-13 came in a bit larger at 120m, T-14 a little thinner at 80m. They previously mapped the fiend at 3400 acres which is quite large. Modern wells and horizontals would have a larger drainage area to old wells and may increase the oil in place numbers. Also a recharge and increased pressure in the reservoir is likely to lead to increased recoverable, but not by x10!
Regards,
Ed.
Dicko,
Absolutely when you also consider they think that the reservoir has potentially recharged and repressurised according to the updates its very interesting indeed. With oil shows throughout the Binga for both wells they sure do have a lot to test. Exciting times indeed.
Regards,
Ed.
Aftr,
That's shocking that they're not admitting to know about the JV termination months before it was released to the market. Many accounts appeared on here saying that, even though according to the company, the JV negotiations were at any advanced stage and they were working on the last remaining outstanding issues. Yet some in advance claimed they knew it wouldn't happen. This rabbit hole just keeps getting deeper.
How did they also know that the high pressure separators ordered in from Alberta wouldn't work? Those were designed to cope with high pressure production and they certainly know what they're doing in Alberta when it comes to oil production. Yet we had multiple accounts coming on here stating they wouldn't work, even though the field production went up by x10 from 2019-2021. Ryder Scott had modeled the miscible flood production up to a potential 5,000bopd and put a resource report on the massive discovery (those you can count on as RS are a global leader in reserve audit).
Folks will have plenty to supply to the LSE et al early next month before they complete their scrutiny of the new admission document.
Regards,
Ed.
Micky,
You will be also find that from subsequent presentations that after the acquisition of Cuda that the Gross 2P increased to $492m NPV10.
Also there are other interesting tidbits in those presentations:
"COPL will also own 100% of key infrastructure assets via Pipeco (owner of the pipelines). U.S. producers with strong
infrastructure assets trade at a premium valuation (additional unrealized value of $10 million)"
Moreover they suggested that the GGS (now upgraded and the injectant were worth circa $100m)
None of that included the CCU Frontier 1 and Frontier 3.
Its all out there in their presentations.
Then take this for example:
"Natural Gas injection with a Condensate and LPG (Propane) bullet commenced December 2019 at a maximum rate of 3.4MMCF/d. Currently c. 750 MMCF has been injected"
"BFU Simulated plateau production is c. 5,000 bbl./d (page 16) as per the Ryder Scott Report (October 1, 2020)"
"COPL re-simulated BFU plateau production (January 2021): 7,000 bbl./d at 10 MMCF/d gas injection rate (page 17)"
The GGS upgrade was to enable them to inject up to 8.5mmcfd with further upgrades to that that to 12mmcfd, kinda begs the question as to why they didn't do this when reading what they knew from 2019 right through to July 2023.
Another interesting point, there are certain "realistic" posters on here, or pretend holders should we say that seemed to be aware that the high pressure separators (portaloos) wouldn't make a difference even before they were installed. Where were they getting this information from? Did they know in advance there wouldn't be a material increase in gas injection, a function of oil production no less.
Regards,
Ed.
OFF TOPIC
SteveE60,
I guess its me you are referring to as there isn't an Edwin posting here that I'm aware of? Yes I'm currently down thousands on COPL as are hundreds and potentially thousands of other investors. Its the first company that I've seen that BOD were more closely aligned with bondholders than shareholders. They did pretty much the exact opposite of what they said in July 2023 where they laid out exactly what they had to do to increase production at the BFU. Injectant volumes being a function of oil production, more gas injected increased the oil production. Before the miscible flood started it was at circa 220bopd and peaked at 2000+ bopd. Even though they were fully funded and their oil production was unhedged they were really slow to restart the gas injection strategy after the gas gathering upgrade and then injection volumes went down between October and December '23. This was the exact opposite of what the company had said. Also they said they would give a production guidance and a strategy update before the end of 2023. Of course those didn't materialize either.
All of that has facilitated the repricing of the bonds down to a fraction of a penny, moreover, the JV talks with the "industry leader" which had been running for 15 months also terminated without explanation once the bondholders had made their appointments to the BOD. That has allowed them to build a material position in the company at the expense of shareholders. I've not see the like of it before, its thankfully a rare event that anything like this occurs. But its currently being investigated by the authorities and that will have to run its course. But its not all over just yet.
Thankfully this has nothing to do with CRCL as the two companies are like chalk and cheese. The BOD here are fully aligned with shareholders interests imo.
Regards,
Ed.
Lloyd,
Rather than one person making many complaints it would be best for many to submit that have valid email addresses though. The more genuine complainants the better at the time. Again lets see how the CAG get on first with their digging. I'll let everyone know when I throw my first grenade at the Ad doc. The more activity at the time the better at the right time.
Regards,
Ed.
Lloyd,
Make this your first port of call when the time comes, scroll down to the bottom and make your case (contact us). Just summarize what has gone on operationally and how these shares to be issued in the new admission document have come about and why you don't think the new shares should be admitted. It would be better for this to come from as many sources as possible rather than just a standard cut and paste letter. By all means let your feelings be known. You could also copy in the FCA at this point too.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/resources/equities-trading-resources?tab=rules-and-regulations&accordionId=8-5c38892b-07bf-4ad4-8da4-85afc5eb31f1
I would say not to act just yet though, there will be a scramble to get that admission doc in, but it'll take time to pass, weeks. It was late feb/early march last year. So I'll give the various parties time to achieve something first before going after that Ad doc.
Regards,
Ed.
Stas,
All these shares placed in the last 12 months need admitted to the LSE via an admission document. That's what I'll be targeting next month through the proper channels and I'll be suggesting others do the same. We'll know after that if it makes a difference.
Regards,
Ed.