Member Info for economist2023

Interesting that the post was liked by Joe Mastrangelo of Eos Energy - I wonder whether they have also been summoned to London.

BD Director John Hasar posted the below on LinkedIn just now... it is music to my ears. Increasingly looks like Invinity may receive significant cap and floor project wins + government support to assist with their scale up.

"Exciting day in London starting the week with 3 meetings at Department for Business and Trade, Ofgem, and Department for Energy Security and Net Zero in Whitehall and Canary Wharf!

Opportunity to unpack Invinity's pathway to grow and scale-up in the United States and the United Kingdom. It was wonderful to make new connections and reconnect with friends as I was back in 3 Whitehall Place where I had my job interview at DECC 9 years ago!

Another great moment was to connect with Sam Harper in our London office to celebrate our 32 MWh contract with Pacific Steel Group in Mojave, California. It took us 85 days from first meeting to reach the finish line with signatures - a record for both companies!

At the end of the day, it was time to commute back to Essex from London Liverpool Street, this time without the Brompton!

Exciting times and grateful for everything!"

The results from this RFP were released today: https://ieso.ca/en/Sector-Participants/Resource-Acquisition-and-Contracts/Long-Term-2-RFP

There are three winners, Napanee BESS Phase 2 (300MW), NEOEN ONTARIO BESS 2 (190MW), and Simcoe Battery Project GP Inc (150MW). The documentation I can find for these projects indicate that they will all use lithium batteries but I will wait for the official updates from the project developers before ruling out Invinity.

Agree this pullback is crazy - wish I had some dry powder to top up.

Mkango filed an amended F4 earlier this evening https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2052373&owner=exclude

I took a look at a small sample of de-SPACs from earlier this year. The general pattern seems to be (i) filing public form F-4; (ii) a few weeks later filing amended F-4; (iii) around 2 days later it is declared effective, OR, another few weeks go by and another amended form F-4 is filed.

Therefore it is likely that the MKAR form F-4 is either declared effective this week, in which case the transaction should be completed at around the end of June/beginning of July, or Mkango will have to file another amendment, which would delay things another few weeks. Let's hope the wait is nearly over.

I understand PMCs logic that a base case scenario would assume Invinity wins a share of projects proportional to its share of the eligible pool. I think, however, it is also a realistic scenario that Invinity wins more than its share of the eligible pool if the cap and floor financial assessment criteria favors the qualities of VFB (i.e., lower levelized cost of storage for LDES when calculated over 25 years, since Lithium batteries need replacing after 7 years or so) over Lithium, and also places weight on the socio-economic benefits that supporting a domestic manufacturer would bring. The consultation process may also favour Invinity's batteries over lithium, due to no fire risk, less noise pollution, local jobs, etc. On the other hand, Lithium battery costs have fallen dramatically over the past few years, and Lithium technology is mainstream and increasingly being optimized for LDES - so of course we should expect Lithium to win a larger share of the pool than VFBs.

The best case scenario in my opinion is that Invinity wins Hagshaw plus some Frontier projects. That would be a dream scenario, particularly if it was accompanied by DESNZ grant support for a manufacturing scale up. I understand this isn't the most likely outcome, but I think us long term shareholders should be allowed to dare to dream. Good luck all!

Not sure if that's targeted at me, but I have made no predictions on the amount of work Invinity will win from cap and floor. I am highlighting that Invinity have 21 out of the 77 eligible projects (now potentially down to 69), which underlines the high likelihood that they win at least 1 project. I don't disagree that 500MW would be a stunning amount of work for IES.

Tricky - agree with your point that demand for VFBs over Lithium should grow as their benefits are recognised, but there are 21 VFB projects in the 77 eligible, and all of them are Invinity. You may have missed that all 16 Frontier Power projects are planned to contain a 50:50 split between Invinity VFB and Eos Zinc batteries.

Well said - what a presentation. I have noted down some of the highlights below.

- Partnerships in China, India, Taiwan are alive and well. More partnerships (e.g., US to be announced).

- Invinity beat all flow battery technologies and some other LDES technologies to win the Swiss contract.

- Invinity's VFBs are lower cost than even the VFBs in China, which has by the largest market in the world.

- Cap and Floor results should be announced by the end of June. Invinity is very excited about this.

- More US projects will be announced in the coming months. Once enough US contracts have been signed, Invinity will announced US manufacturing plans.

- The phone is constantly ringing at Invinity HQ from interested potential customers and scale.

- Invinity has a plan to scale up manufacturing without requiring heavy capital investment.

- Jonathan Marren expects UK capital markets will close the valuation gap between Invinity and Eos Energy to close, as more project wins are announced.

- The next capital raise will be done from a position of strength and existing retail shareholders will be given the opportunity to participate.

Yes, results should come tomorrow or Monday I believe. I am not expecting to contain any surprises, but they usually announce an investor presentation scheduled for shortly after results. Hopefully we will get one next week or the week after. These investor presentations are always very interesting/informative.

I concur. The market still hasn’t grasped the size of the opportunity IMO!

Just want to add two points:

1. Evidence of manufacturing scale-up and potential projects in India. Sai Bioenergy (linked to Atri) posted on LinkedIn two days ago the following job ad:

"𝐉𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐚𝐢 𝐁𝐢𝐨𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲’𝐬 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐉𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐲 – 𝐇𝐢𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 (𝐁𝐄𝐒𝐒) 𝐢𝐧 𝐇𝐲𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐚𝐝

Sai Bioenergy is accelerating its clean energy and advanced energy infrastructure initiatives, and we are looking to strengthen our procurement team in Hyderabad.

We are currently hiring for:

𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 – 𝐁𝐄𝐒𝐒 (𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐫)

We are seeking experienced professionals with expertise in:

• BESS and engineering procurement

• Vendor sourcing and supply chain coordination

• Commercial negotiations and procurement strategy

• Electrical/energy sector procurement processes

• Managing procurement for fast-paced infrastructure projects

This is an opportunity to contribute to projects shaping the future of India’s energy transition and storage ecosystem."

The job ad includes a clear image of Invinity Endurium battery systems (see here https://www.linkedin.com/company/sai-bioenergy-private-limited/posts/?feedView=all).

2. S. Kishore, who owns Atri, has stated that he believes Invinity can achieve lowest cost manufacturing in India (i.e., even lower than China). This has great implications for Invinity's cost reduction program - manufacturing scale up in India will not only allow India to service the Indian domestic market, but will also enable Invinity to sell Endurium systems worldwide at the most competitive prices available globally.

While we await further transformative news in the very short term (Ofgem cap and floor Initial Decision List), here is an update on the opportunity in India, another of Invinity's core markets.

Last week, Gujarat Industries Power Company Limited (GIPCL) issued a tender spec for a 120 MWh VRFB (see here: https://energetica-india.net/news/gipcl-plans-20-mw120-mwh-vanadium-flow-battery-project-at-vadodara-gas-plant).

GIPCL is a medium sized utility company in Gujarat. The issuing of this tender appears to be part of a trend towards VRFB adoption in India. Last February, NTPC, the largest energy company in India, issued a tender spec for a 100MWh VRFB (https://www.saurenergy.com/solar-energy-news/ntpc-rel-issues-167-mw100-mwh-vanadium-redox-flow-bess-tender-at-khavda-11132274). In its earnings call from last week, NTPC mentioned specifically that it is "focusing on expanding storage capacities through BESS pump storage projects, long-duration energy storage technologies like CO2 battery, and vanadium redox flow batteries to support grid stability and renewable integration" - see here: https://m.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-ntpcs-q4-fy-2026-sees-profit-surge-despite-revenue-dip-93CH-4708040?ampMode=1.

For new investors: Indian strategic shareholders own over 15% of Invinity. Atri Energy Transition own around 11% of the company and are working with the company to establish manufacturing in India (see https://invinity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Invinity-in-India-2026.pdf). While little information on Atri is publicly available, it is linked through its ownership to Indian companies including VS Lignite and Sai Bioenergy (the latter advertises Invinity batteries on its website https://saibioenergy.com/). I have no doubt that Invinity will be bidding for these Indian VRFB tenders, supported by the Atri team, with the aim to capture significant market share.

The scale of the opportunity for VRFBs in India is massive. The LDES council last month published a report in which it estimates that India needs to install 170- 260 GW of LDES capacity to meet net zero commitments (see here: https://ldescouncil.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/LDES-India-Policy-Paper_April-10-final.pdf). The opportunity here is less immediate than in more mature markets (UK, Europe, US, Canada), but in the long term, the India opportunity may be the greatest of them all.

Can’t quite believe what I’m reading but it appears Invinity is the strategic partner for Flexbase.

https://flexbase.ch/en/newsroom/media-releases/invinity-energy-systems-has-emerged-as-the-strategic-partner-for-the-worlds-largest-flow-battery-storage-facility-in-laufenburg-switzerland

As pointed out by GLR on x, look on page 269-270 at who is on the board and who the senior advisors are. High profile US national security figures…

I don't think there's much new info in there, but here is a nice passage I found:

"CPTK management believes the Company’s vertically integrated mine-to-oxide business model, which may be effectively extended to a mine-to-magnet model when considering HyproMag, is similar to that of MP Materials. In addition, CPTK management believes the Company’s vertical integration of the Proposed Pulawy Separation Plant with Songwe Hill is similar to the business conducted by Lynas given its capability to both mine and separate rare earth oxides. CPTK believes the favorable analyst ratings and share price performance of both MP Materials and Lynas would be indicative of a similar reaction from investors once the Company demonstrates its production capabilities at Songwe Hill and the Proposed Pulawy Separation Plant. Furthermore, once the Company achieves scale in its operations, CPTK believes investors would view the Company as a public market comparable to both MP Materials and Lynas. In the near term, since the Company is still in the process of developing Songwe Hill and the Proposed Pulawy Separation Plant, CPTK identified USA Rare Earth, Inc. (“USAR”), Arafura Rare Earths Limited (“ARAFF”), and Critical Metals Corp. (“CRML”) as the publicly traded companies that CPTK management believed are the most comparable to the Company based on their respective stages of development"

Its here: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0002052373/000121390026059667/ea0271516-05.htm

!

Very compelling (and relevant to Avacta) comments from the CEO of Scancell today before the parliament science and technology committee - watch from 12:24 here: https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/bedc34d8-d481-46c3-89c3-5ccd4ff8189c

He argues that Scancell (another Biotech on AIM) struggles to raise capital because it relies only on UK retail investors. He asks that that UK legislates to allow the British Business Bank to invest in AIM companies and also to encourage UK pension funds to invest in UK companies. Says also that AIM regulations need to be updated because US investors won't invest in AIM. And he also comments that, as Scancell approaches phase 3, he is now having to consider listing on Nasdaq in order to raise sufficient capital (and comments that other UK biotechs are having to think the same way).

As an aside, take a look at Scancell's share price since they announced FDA Fast Track Designation a couple of weeks ago on the basis of beating the PFS benchmark. Hopefully a similar experience for Avacta investors soon...

Rider, I am speculating that Hypromag is an applicant but it hasn’t been confirmed.

Https://www.miningmagazine.com/europe/news-analysis/4531484/crma-round-selection-autumn

I can’t read the full article as it’s behind the paywall but it seems the CRMA strategic project round 2 decisions have been delayed to Autumn due to the “complex” process. Sounds like a typical European Commission delay (my understanding was that decisions were due in April). Hopefully Hypromag will get the designation eventually.